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Speculation on the 12th April/Free Shipping Email

notsramnotsram Posts: 1,238
Wintermute
There seem to be a number of people talking about this in various different threads, so I thought I'd start a new one and hopefully the talk about it will gravitate here and be a bit easier to find :)

There seem to be two main topics of conversation:-

Firstly, the wording of the email...

Oculus have given us a date of 12th April for updates. I'll be amazed if they don't meet this date or even give updates before then. Whether it's the fault of Oculus or not, there's been a major screw up on the launch. They've lost a lot of goodwill, and some (nobody knows how much, but I'll bet it's thousands) of orders because of it. They've appeased (most of) us by explaining, apologising and offering free shipping.

The email may seem slightly ambiguous, but you can guarantee it's been through umpteen Facebook lawyers before release. It's been very carefully thought through. Oculus aren't daft. They know how many people are annoyed at the delays. They've bought themselves some breathing space with this announcement and they know they have to use it. If they drop the ball again, the cancellations will flood in, especially as by April 12th, it'll be public knowledge how well the Vive launch is going. If they weren't totally confident they could meet this date and get things back on track by then, they wouldn't have given a timescale.

Secondly, the 'component' shortage...

Nobody knows what this component is. Personally, I think it's one of the items that's added into the box at the last minute, i.e. the remote. They were expecting a shipment of xx thousand of these to arrive so that they could get them into the boxes, but for whatever reason, there was a delay. If it IS a last minute item such as this, it would account for them not knowing until soon before launch that there was going to be a problem. Assuming this is the problem, it's simply a matter of getting these items in the boxes and firing the boxes out, which is why they're in a position to announce that shipping will hopefully be back on track very soon.

If it's an internal component, say a PCB, that's a bit more serious. I doubt it, as if it was, they'd have known a lot sooner that there were going to be major delays and would presumably have made an announcement before things got so out of hand. If this is the situation, then even when the components arrive, they still have to assemble the thing before they can get it into the box and send it out. I'm not sure ten days is enough time to do that in the quantities they need to ship, especially as they've announced via VR-Researcher (commonly thought to be either Palmer Luckey under an alias or someone else pretty high up at Oculus) on Reddit  that they'll hopefully be back up to speed 'next week'.

It could even be the box that Rift ships in. If you watch the vid of Palmer delivering the first Rift, the controller falls out when the box is opened. Ok, the box was opened upside down, but the controller still shouldn't fall out that easily. They may be simply putting extra padding in the box to ensure the controller doesn't fall out during transit and cause damage.

Anyway, that's my thoughts on the matter. Hopefully, all will become clearer soon! :)
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Comments

  • DoctorFateDoctorFate Posts: 168
    Art3mis
    All very logical notsram. I just hope people don't get their hopes up. I see so many people bouncing to conclusions and assuming this means the 12th is the end to the wait but the email only says we'll have more definitive info by then. Honestly for myself I feel strongly that in many ways the component can not be a serious part or the given time just won't be enough. I believe they're further behind then a week though and feel March people will get around the third week if April. April estimates will likely get the second week of May and May estimated will likely be only a week behind at which point I feel they will fully catch up for estimates in June/July batches. That's where I personally feel we're at. I'm personally desperate though it won't kill me to wait a few more weeks.

    On a totally unrelated note, if we have free shipping now, why do I and many others still have a $2+ charge (tax on said shipping)?
  • DannyMNLDannyMNL Posts: 273
    Nexus 6
    I also think the 'component shortage' is one of the pack-in items. My best guess is it's the xbox controllers. All of the other items have been made by Oculus or at least are produced under direct supervision of Oculus, so the shortages would have been known weeks before shipping was supposed to start. The controllers however are supplied by Microsoft, and I think they weren't too happy with the insane demand of controllers. Both Microsoft and Oculus underestimated the demand for the Rift, and I think Microsoft expected to only lose a few thousand controllers to Oculus every month ( since they are provided at cost/at a loss), whereas they now have to supply hundreds of thousands ( millions?) at virtually no profit.

    Microsoft tried to gain brand-recognition via this deal, and hoped to sell lots of extra consoles because of the virtual theater option. However, they didn't realize that a lot of the worthwhile xbox one exclusives are now playable on PC anyway, and because every Oculus ready PC is a beast-rig the games look better than on console as well. Take into account Virtual Desktop and Microsoft got the rug pulled out from under them. Which I believe explains their reluctance to deliver on time.


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  • maxpare79maxpare79 Posts: 1,783
    Project 2501
    If it's not a pack-in item we are in for a rush quality control job, so I hope it's just a pack-in item..

    Oh and by the way if you didn't receive the 1 to 3 weeks email it meant you were not in the first batch of shipping, that has been confirm by an Oculus employee on Reddit

    TheTwistgibberCustomer Support, Oculus VR[S] 68 points 19 hours ago 

    If you received the 1-3 week email, you were in our first allocations, the first three weeks of shipments from that email send. Still valid and we should be able to still hit that window. If we slip a few days beyond that, please don't freak out. They are coming!

    I am a spacesim/flightsim/racesim enthusiast first :-) I7 [email protected], 16gb RAM/ Asus 1080 Strix Former DK2 Owner/Gear VR owner/CV1
  • notsramnotsram Posts: 1,238
    Wintermute
    I'd doubt it was the controller. Oculus (and therefore Micro$oft) have known for months that they have way more orders than expected. This is something last minute.
  • notsramnotsram Posts: 1,238
    Wintermute
    maxpare79 said:
    If it's not a pack-in item we are in for a rush quality control job, so I hope it's just a pack-in item..

    Oh and by the way if you didn't receive the 1 to 3 weeks email it meant you were not in the first batch of shipping, that has been confirm by an Oculus employee on Reddit

    TheTwistgibberCustomer Support, Oculus VR[S] 68 points 19 hours ago 

    If you received the 1-3 week email, you were in our first allocations, the first three weeks of shipments from that email send. Still valid and we should be able to still hit that window. If we slip a few days beyond that, please don't freak out. They are coming!

    Yeah, I saw that post. I was hoping I'd not received that email due to some sort of glitch/spam filter, but seeing as I received the one about the 12th April and free shipping, that hope is out of the window.

    Ah well, I've obviously only just missed that window, so I should be in the second batch. If they can get back on track, I hope I'll still have mine towards the end of the month.
  • maxpare79maxpare79 Posts: 1,783
    Project 2501
    I found out! It's the lens cleaning cloth!!!!
    I am a spacesim/flightsim/racesim enthusiast first :-) I7 [email protected], 16gb RAM/ Asus 1080 Strix Former DK2 Owner/Gear VR owner/CV1
  • Percy1983Percy1983 Posts: 1,410
    Wintermute
    For all we know there was a shortage on one type of screw and they now have enough and have more people on it to finish said units.

    The email does insinuate its only a delay for early pre orders which would mean they expect to catch up.

    As the x box controller falling out is basic physics its s door move the compartment which will stay closed while the box is closed, if opened upside down the weight of the controller will open said door. Of course without the box opening the controller can push against that the hatch as much as it likes as it has no where to go.
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  • Bel-garathBel-garath Posts: 148
    Art3mis
    notsram said:
    maxpare79 said:
    If it's not a pack-in item we are in for a rush quality control job, so I hope it's just a pack-in item..

    Oh and by the way if you didn't receive the 1 to 3 weeks email it meant you were not in the first batch of shipping, that has been confirm by an Oculus employee on Reddit

    TheTwistgibberCustomer Support, Oculus VR[S] 68 points 19 hours ago 

    If you received the 1-3 week email, you were in our first allocations, the first three weeks of shipments from that email send. Still valid and we should be able to still hit that window. If we slip a few days beyond that, please don't freak out. They are coming!

    Yeah, I saw that post. I was hoping I'd not received that email due to some sort of glitch/spam filter, but seeing as I received the one about the 12th April and free shipping, that hope is out of the window.

    Ah well, I've obviously only just missed that window, so I should be in the second batch. If they can get back on track, I hope I'll still have mine towards the end of the month.
    Be happy that if you didn't get that email it could have meant that you would be even further out. Batch 3 lol. Glass half full!!!! :)
  • mrskeavmrskeav Posts: 1
    NerveGear
    has anyone watched that polish unboxing video when he opens the box up the xbox pad is in the lid not in the hidden compartment under the sensor personally i think its a packaging problem thats the delay or did the kickstarter unboxings have a different internal packaging layout 
  • ZomaZoma Posts: 13
    NerveGear
    edited April 2016
    My breakdown:

    The remote:  I doubt it is the remote.  If it was, Oculus could have shipped on-time without the remote.  An E-mail could have been sent out letting users know that the remotes would be included at a later date (shipping free of charge).  This would have been cheaper than comping all shipping, and would have caused less frustration for users (how many of us really plan on using the remote often?).

    The Xbox controller:  I have similar feelings for the X-Box controller, *except* that there could have been contractual language forbidding Oculus to distribute the Rift without an X-Box controller.  Microsoft produces millions of these controllers a year, so if it is the controller my bet would be on the wireless dongle for PCs.

    The sensor:  This is where my money is as the likely culprit.  It is custom made for Oculus, and you can't use the device without it.

    The box:  Another possibility, but the Rifts may very well be placed into these shortly after production.


    Other possibilities:  After the sensor, I think the headphones or one of the cables are the next most likely part.  I believe the cables are also custom made (split HDMI/USB), they would not be packaged until late in the process, and the rift obviously cannot be used without them.
  • AndyW1384AndyW1384 Posts: 307
    Trinity
    Zoma said:
    My breakdown:

    [snip]

    Other possibilities:  After the sensor, I think the headphones or one of the cables are the next most likely part.  I believe the cables are also custom made (split HDMI/USB), they would not be packaged until late in the process, and the rift obviously cannot be used without them.
    Aren't the cables hard-wired into the headset?
  • DannyMNLDannyMNL Posts: 273
    Nexus 6
    Nope, it connects to the headset via a single connector and can be removed. The cable only splits into HDMI and USB in the last 30cm but is otherwise a single removable cable.
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  • How disgustingly hilarious would it be if the xbone controller - the one thing that none of us even want - is the "missing component" that's causing these delays.
  • GherronGherron Posts: 193
    Art3mis
    Nobody thinks it was the lenses?  I had seen that mentioned previously as a rumor.  That would be worrisome since you have to pretty much disassemble the entire headset to fix that.  
  • AnaximedesAnaximedes Posts: 6
    NerveGear
    Gherron said:
    Nobody thinks it was the lenses?  I had seen that mentioned previously as a rumor.  That would be worrisome since you have to pretty much disassemble the entire headset to fix that.  
    Really. I've read here at this forum a couple of days ago something about the lenses but I think it's about April's fool, it would be catastrophic.
  • Blackout19Blackout19 Posts: 8
    NerveGear
    I would expect the headset to be constructed in its entirety in the fab plant and shipped out complete to be boxed with accessories in the US. It is unlikely to be therefore, lenses or any other part of the HMD itself. The camera sounds like a reasonable idea, as it is something that would entirely prevent shipping from happening. I doubt it's the Microsoft parts, as those are in stock all over the world right now and are a standard item. Could also be the small media remote.

    As ever, this is all just speculation, and the main thing is that they hopefully get back on track and we all get our CV1's soon (tm) 
  • KBKKBK Posts: 983
    Art3mis
    as a manufacturer of electronics, etc, I'm not going to bother to speculate.

    It could be anything. any chip. One of the chips is the most likely suspect.

    Oh yeah, could be the small custom OLED panels, as well. Anything at all.

    These days it is 'just in time' manufacturing, and a big unexpected order que (sold out items), could cause this sort of problem.
    Intelligence... is not inherent - it is a point in understanding. Q: When does a fire become self sustaining?
  • Percy1983Percy1983 Posts: 1,410
    Wintermute
    How disgustingly hilarious would it be if the xbone controller - the one thing that none of us even want - is the "missing component" that's causing these delays.
    I want the one in my box.
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  • Jokergod2000Jokergod2000 Posts: 302
    Nexus 6
    Was the Reddit post the day before mentioning the screw up on the lens proven to be false? Seems like the "component shortage" may be the lens's?
  • ZoomieZoomie Posts: 1,777 Valuable Player
    The lens post on reddit was updated to say it was an April Fools joke.
    It was a good one.  I thought it was plausible.
    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
    - Arthur C Clarke
  • Lucky_DLucky_D Posts: 173
    Art3mis
    edited April 2016
    I think the OP has it right, it must be a rather trivial component, anything on the PCB would have been identified much sooner than this.  So a chip on the main board is probably not the issue, I would suspect the remote or a shortage of XBOX One controllers, or one of the inserts.  Something easily sourced from a different vendor.  Odds are they are allowing the original vendor the opportunity to correct the shortage and by the 12th Oculus will know if they will be able to provide the needed component.  If not I am sure Oculus has a few alternate sources lined and if they have to go thru one of them, also have an estimate for shipping.
  • ZandilZandil Posts: 975
    3Jane
    edited April 2016
    Don't give a crap what it was, i'm getting it 130 USD bucks cheaper now due to it being late,

    COME TO DADDY  ;) 
  • ZachSnyZachSny Posts: 144
    Art3mis
    Do you think orders will still be shipped this Monday, or are all orders at a stand still? The email did say that: "you should expect to see your order status updated on oculus.com by Tuesday, April 12." So by my understanding the email states that we will receive order information "by" not on, which could mean that things may happen before then - not to mention EVERYONE got this email, not just the 1-3 weeks people.

    Note: Sorry if someone already asked this, I didn't have time to read over the tread.
  • ZandilZandil Posts: 975
    3Jane
    ZachSny said:
    Do you think orders will still be shipped this Monday, or are all orders at a stand still? The email did say that: "you should expect to see your order status updated on oculus.com by Tuesday, April 12." So by my understanding the email states that we will receive order information "by" not on, which could mean that things may happen before then - not to mention EVERYONE got this email, not just the 1-3 weeks people.

    Note: Sorry if someone already asked this, I didn't have time to read over the tread.
    They stated shipping will be at full steam by Monday, Once shipping resumes and it smooths out they will have a better grasp of dates for the rest of us and that's when they will probably update our orders.  
  • ZachSnyZachSny Posts: 144
    Art3mis
    Zandil said:
    ZachSny said:
    Do you think orders will still be shipped this Monday, or are all orders at a stand still? The email did say that: "you should expect to see your order status updated on oculus.com by Tuesday, April 12." So by my understanding the email states that we will receive order information "by" not on, which could mean that things may happen before then - not to mention EVERYONE got this email, not just the 1-3 weeks people.

    Note: Sorry if someone already asked this, I didn't have time to read over the tread.
    They stated shipping will be at full steam by Monday, Once shipping resumes and it smooths out they will have a better grasp of dates for the rest of us and that's when they will probably update our orders.  
    Awesome news! I read earlier that the 1-3 weeks people were the "first batch", so maybe I might see a Rift on my doorstep this week.. Although I won't get too anxious after what happened last week.. Haha.
  • Jokergod2000Jokergod2000 Posts: 302
    Nexus 6
    I'm traveling for work and will be back home on Thursday. Come on Mon or Tues shipping email! Would be awesome if it was there when I got home :)
  • greeneblitzgreeneblitz Posts: 126
    Art3mis
    edited April 2016
    I would bet it's the Xbox controllers as well, its the only competent that makes sense that would be out of Occulus' hands and would be the only component that could force Oculus not to disclose details of its failure to deliver, it's also a component that could conceivable be put in as the "'last step" of retail packaging.

    If hats true, then I really wish that they would have sped up development and launched with the Touch controllers that would have saved them and most importantly, us fans, from many hours of reading through garbage on here and Reddit.
  • ZandilZandil Posts: 975
    3Jane
    I would bet it's the Xbox controllers as well, its the only competent that makes sense that would be out of Occulus' hands and would be the only component that could force Oculus not to disclose details of its failure to deliver, it's also a component that could conceivable be put in as the "'last step" of retail packaging.
    It could well be the controller but it's not the only component that could have done it, All of the material in the Rift comes from somewhere and some other company and  a delay from any one piece could have caused the delay 
  • MobileChickenMobileChicken Posts: 11
    NerveGear
    I got an email this morning  :).... my rift is being processed! Checked order history and it's showing as being shipped. 
    UK 5mins and 49secs xxxx25xxxx order here..,things are moving again.
  • notsramnotsram Posts: 1,238
    Wintermute
    Zandil said:
    ZachSny said:
    Do you think orders will still be shipped this Monday, or are all orders at a stand still? The email did say that: "you should expect to see your order status updated on oculus.com by Tuesday, April 12." So by my understanding the email states that we will receive order information "by" not on, which could mean that things may happen before then - not to mention EVERYONE got this email, not just the 1-3 weeks people.

    Note: Sorry if someone already asked this, I didn't have time to read over the tread.
    They stated shipping will be at full steam by Monday, Once shipping resumes and it smooths out they will have a better grasp of dates for the rest of us and that's when they will probably update our orders.  
    They said things should (baring any further problems) be back to speed 'next week' not necessarily today, but there to do seem to be a lot of orders going through now, so hopefully the crisis has passed :)

    And yes, Oculus pretty much have to give information BY the 12th. Anything later than then and the complaints will be far worse than they were last week.
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