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How long before VR is mainstream?

Paddy234Paddy234 Posts: 33
Brain Burst
edited April 2017 in General
Looking at the sales of VR it's clear PSVR dominates in the units being sold. Between both the vive and oculus there is nearly 1 million units sold but PSVR has sold a million on it's own in half the time. The competition is a good thing as it means prices will be pushed down faster and companies will be racing to add newer and more immersive features to stand out. When the prices of the oculus and Vive were first announced i was afraid VR in the mainstream will be off for at least 5 years or maybe more as if there is little investment perhaps companies may dump the idea to being solely an arcade experience. Oculus dropping the price by a large amount is a good thing but for most people it is still too expensive and for the lack of quality content not really worth it either. How long do people think we will have to wait until we start to see a good catalog of quality games for a affordable VR system at lets say $300. I really hope at E3 this year we see a good few big games announced for VR

Comments

  • dburnedburne Posts: 1,869 Valuable Player
    Based on some things I have read over various forums it sounds like they are expecting a very significant increase around 2019. Maybe with the next generation of VR units.
    Don

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  • inovatorinovator Posts: 1,630
    Project 2501
    I don't know what your talking sbout. There is alot of great content now and it gets better all the time and continues to increase. Oculus said from the beginning things would start very slowly. I can't even begin to keep up with all I want to play. 
  • Paddy234Paddy234 Posts: 33
    Brain Burst
    edited April 2017
    inovator said:
    I don't know what your talking sbout. There is alot of great content now and it gets better all the time and continues to increase. Oculus said from the beginning things would start very slowly. I can't even begin to keep up with all I want to play. 
    Yes but it isn't priced for the mainstream market just yet and is still kind of a niche product. Most of the content seem to be quite quirky games that merely show off what VR can do rather than offer you a fully immersive story experience you get with many AAA games. This is because no developers are investing alot of time and money into it just yet due to the small userbase 
  • Hiro_Protag0nistHiro_Protag0nist Posts: 4,634 Valuable Player
    2nd gen, 2020 - they'll come out in 2019 but 2020 it will explode, i think.
  • DannyMNLDannyMNL Posts: 270
    Nexus 6
    I doubt it will ever become mainstream. People will remain reluctant to strap something to their face. Massive AAA support is also unlikely due to the small userbase, and the userbase will remain relatively small because of lack of AAA support. It's a vicious cycle really.

    Now I'm not saying VR in general is doomed. The few experiences that are currently available are nice, and there are a few practical/business uses for VR as well such as showing clients the insides of new buildings before they are even built, or having surgeons perform their business at a distance. Just don't expect a VR headset to be in every house in the near future or ever for that matter.

    I bought my Oculus Rift with the mindset that I only wanted to play 2 games that were announced for it, and that I would see if the headset would get any further support from devs. That way I can't really be disappointed if VR flops.
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  • JD-UKJD-UK Posts: 2,277 Valuable Player
    I can't see VR catching on big time until the larger franchises and especially TV etc start promoting it.

    Why? Because I have spent the last couple of days looking around various gaming forums - and Steam forums  - and I just can't believe the amount of utter crap that ill-informed people are posting about how bad VR is.

    You have people asking legitimate questions about VR and others who obviously have zero idea coming back and saying how rubbish it is. Couldn't believe the garbage I was reading.

    It needs promotion from reliable and popular sources. Including AAA publishing houses.




  • falken76falken76 Posts: 2,708 Valuable Player
    Paddy234 said:
    Looking at the sales of VR it's clear PSVR dominates in the units being sold. Between both the vive and oculus there is nearly 1 million units sold but PSVR has sold a million on it's own in half the time. The competition is a good thing as it means prices will be pushed down faster and companies will be racing to add newer and more immersive features to stand out. When the prices of the oculus and Vive were first announced i was afraid VR in the mainstream will be off for at least 5 years or maybe more as if there is little investment perhaps companies may dump the idea to being solely an arcade experience. Oculus dropping the price by a large amount is a good thing but for most people it is still too expensive and for the lack of quality content not really worth it either. How long do people think we will have to wait until we start to see a good catalog of quality games for a affordable VR system at lets say $300. I really hope at E3 this year we see a good few big games announced for VR
    I still think there's at least 5 years minimum and even then I don't think it will be "main stream".  It's too expensive for one.  The biggest problem I see is Motion sickness.  Until that is actually solved, this will never gain traction.  Once they get passed that, then I think things will pick up so long as GPUs that perform well don't cost $800+  GTX 1060 prices are pushing what a regular consumer would consider paying. When quality cards can be purchased for $150 or less it would help a lot, but even that price tag on top of the computer itself is asking a lot of a regular consumer.  The Playstation user base is already installed and they don't need to upgrade their hardware in order to just play it.  Whereas Desktops are not nearly as popular as they were years ago.  I would NEVER consider doing all my work from a Cell phone or tablet but A LOT of the kids these days do so they don't even have a decent computer in the first place.  Unfortunately I believe PC VR will forever be a "Niche" category because of the expense, the lack of desktops and the motion sickness issues.
  • KillCardKillCard Posts: 1,078
    Wintermute
    edited April 2017
    andyring said:
    2nd gen, 2020 - they'll come out in 2019 but 2020 it will explode, i think.
    I think this is about right.

    You gotta remember, just gaming in general took about 10-15 years to become "mainstream". I suppose it really depends on what you consider to be mainstream though. Right now every jockey and his dad knows about something like Call of Duty or Fifa, but back in the 90's even though things like DooM/Quake or Mario/Zelda or Sonic the Hedgehog were well known gaming icons, gaming in general was nowhere near what is now considered "mainstream". Gamers were considered "outcasts" all the way through to until maybe the very late 90's or early 2000's.

    People want the entire fanbase to port over to the new flashy platform but in reality .. its more like starting again from scratch. There will be extremists and early adopters for several years before there is a VR device in every house hold. The wierd thing about being a VR user right now is it feels like I'm a kid again and I'm enjoying the thing that everyone else scoffs at ignorantly.
  • Hiro_Protag0nistHiro_Protag0nist Posts: 4,634 Valuable Player
    Paddy234 said:
    Looking at the sales of VR it's clear PSVR dominates in the units being sold. Between both the vive and oculus there is nearly 1 million units sold but PSVR has sold a million on it's own in half the time. The competition is a good thing as it means prices will be pushed down faster and companies will be racing to add newer and more immersive features to stand out. When the prices of the oculus and Vive were first announced i was afraid VR in the mainstream will be off for at least 5 years or maybe more as if there is little investment perhaps companies may dump the idea to being solely an arcade experience. Oculus dropping the price by a large amount is a good thing but for most people it is still too expensive and for the lack of quality content not really worth it either. How long do people think we will have to wait until we start to see a good catalog of quality games for a affordable VR system at lets say $300. I really hope at E3 this year we see a good few big games announced for VR
    Two things - which sales figures are you looking at?

    We need to define mainstream.

    If 50% of PC gamers had a VR HMD would that be mainstream?

    Do we put a figure on it or do we say if you see them for sale on the high street, that is mainstream?
  • HagarTheHorribleHagarTheHorrible Posts: 72
    Hiro Protagonist
    If the next generation headsets can provide GOOD enough resolution, it doesn't need to be retina just good enough that you don't really notice it and it runs on a reasonable but not top end computer then that will do it.  There are lots of things that will gradually enhance our VR experience but if there's one thing that is mentioned time after time after time it's resolution.  If that's no longer an issue then there will be no reason not to go VR.  People will find the money, they find it for phones, holidays, etc they will find it for VR.  Rather than withering in some vicious downward spiral it will snowball,  it isn't 3DTV, VR offers something genuinely new and people with pay for that.  The Resolution needs to be better though, in the forums I inhabit it's the one and only thing that's causing people to delay,if the resolution was better, enough that you don't notice the pixels then there would be no doubters period.
     
  • tranceology3tranceology3 Posts: 804
    3Jane
    KillCard said:
    andyring said:
    2nd gen, 2020 - they'll come out in 2019 but 2020 it will explode, i think.
    I think this is about right.

    You gotta remember, just gaming in general took about 10-15 years to become "mainstream". I suppose it really depends on what you consider to be mainstream though. Right now every jockey and his dad knows about something like Call of Duty or Fifa, but back in the 90's even though things like DooM/Quake or Mario/Zelda or Sonic the Hedgehog were well known gaming icons, gaming in general was nowhere near what is now considered "mainstream". Gamers were considered "outcasts" all the way through the until maybe the late 90's or early 2000's.

    People want the entire fanbase to port over to the new flashy platform but in reality .. its more like starting again from scratch. There will be extremists and early adopters for several years before there is a VR device in every house hold. The wierd thing about being a VR user right now is it feels like I'm a kid again and I'm enjoying the thing that everyone else scoffs at ignorantly.
    I think the only reason video games today are considered mainstream is because the userbase all grew up with it. The generation that were kids in the late 70s - 80s have been exposed to video games the most, and it always appealed to them. You rarely see anyone in their 50s and up interested in video games because they never grew up with it. And as for everyone knowing what COD, Madden and all the repeat stuff is because they are adertised like crazy, the marketing budget is huge. Video games are not mainstream like your grandma and grandpa need it, unlike how mainstream cell phones, facebook, the internet is - everyone most likely has it.

    As for VR, the same might apply. It may only become very popular with the younger generation, and older may see it as just another techy entertainment thing. Until it reaches a point in which it is very effective at daily tasks will it become fully mainstream. 
  • KillCardKillCard Posts: 1,078
    Wintermute
    As for VR, the same might apply. It may only become very popular with the younger generation, and older may see it as just another techy entertainment thing. Until it reaches a point in which it is very effective at daily tasks will it become fully mainstream. 
    Yea, that's pretty much what I'm getting at. It feels like were back in exactly the same situation as the early 90's. Back then few house-holds even actually had PC's, despite it now pretty much being a necessary part of life for everyone.

    As VR finds new applications and the entertainment gets better, we may be in for another 5-10 years before everyone sees it for it's true potential.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,116 Valuable Player
    Depends on what you mean by mainstream. I can see VR becoming a part of mainstream gaming in around 5 years time. The vast majority of gamers will be playing VR games and experiences by then. As far as general mainstream use goes, as in VR used in the average household rather than just in gamer's households, it's probably going to take a good few years extra. I would guess another 3-5 years.

    So most gamers will be playing VR from 2022 onwards and most households will own a VR headset(s) from 2025-2027.

    The things that are REALLY going to bring VR headsets into homes are VR social media, VR sports coverage and VR films and satellite/cable television, but we won't see that until 2025-2027 I reckon.

    The price of entry is really going to affect things, both for the headsets themselves and for PCs able to run them but it won't be long before we'll see the prices of these things coming down low enough for everyone to be able to afford them.
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  • ParadiseDecayParadiseDecay Posts: 507 Poster of the Week
    I think we're at the stage were we are the surfer on a Cusp of a Wave!
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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,116 Valuable Player


     B) 
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 4,258 Valuable Player
    All interesting observations.
    Just to add my 2cents - the mainstream was too much of a undefined target when promised back in 2013 in the KS and later following the acquirsition(s). As we have seen the internal numbers muted by certain executives proved a busted flush - and even the large install number of GearVR's has been countered by minimal active account numbers, and the admitance that a large number of the 5M+ claimed were given away in contract or are gathering dust (in some cases never even activated as operational accounts).

    For me this seems to be a re-run of the 1996 VR attempt, but now with the added benefit of an install base of educated and vocal users. I do not see this failing, but I do not see this following the plan that some indie devs who have based their business model on the consumer adoption plans of DK2 days, will result in a dip and mini-collapse. In the background however an audience is getting educated to the opportunity and wonder of VR and that is building momentum.

    For me 2018, and the apperance of the first true Mixed Reality HMD's will mark a bigger development - the "see thru" VR/AR systems offer a much bigger opportunity (as we will see at the Facebook Tech day soon), for greater interest and adoption, and expalins why more and more HMD developers are adding AR teams to their R&D investment. What we in the Digital Out-of-Home Entertainment (DOE) sector are seeing, is that much of the interest /  investment in consumer VR is pivoting towards joining our business (as best illustrated by the presentation at VRWC from the AMD and HTC directors).

    Short term, more people will experience VR in the DOE sector, while the consumer sector starts to restructure its business plan based on profressional business strategy, rather than hyperbole of uneducated executives, who have left the field early, [IMHO].
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