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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster
edited January 3 in General
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster
    2018 Predictions from other community members:

    Atmos73
    Predicts that the Santa Cruz will split in to 2 headsets, one of which will be wired to a PC but instead of constellation tracking they will use the same inside-out tracking as the stand-alone Santa Cruz.
    https://forums.oculusvr.com/community/discussion/comment/576608/#Comment_576608


    kevinw729
    Predicts that the Rift CV2 will simply be re-named Santa Cruz (thus no actual Rift CV2, as PCVR HMD, will be created and released).
    https://forums.oculusvr.com/community/discussion/comment/576564/#Comment_576564

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  • SyrellarisSyrellaris Posts: 955
    3Jane
    Pimax 8K HMD will be a flop, that one is a given. Curious on how they plan to natively support 8K on a HMD when even the strongest nvidia card has issues running 8k reliably on a normal monitor with frame rates above 40 fps. If they plan on making good use of upscaling, then well.. it just ain't 8K. Though. i might have misunderstood there kickstarter.




  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,023 Power Poster
    I predict that we won’t hear anything concrete about CV2 in 2018, but rather that they’ll keep it quiet until 6 months before release, and the announcement next year will be followed closely by pre-order sales going live.

    I also predict that at Facebook Dev Con and Oculus Connect, we will hear about new tech that Oculus is working on, which may or may not make it into CV2, but will keep the hype train rolling and fuel more speculation and predictions. 
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster
    edited January 3
    I like that, nalex.

    I am skeptical about my CV2 prediction because I feel that if Facebook/Oculus announces their Rift CV2 plans in the same year that they release Santa Cruz... they could be working against themselves a bit (e.g. lessen the number of Santa Cruz sales because the world just heard that a Rift 2 is coming).

    I figure that the only way they would announce a CV2 this year is if they promise it in 2020 (thus removing SC sales threats).

    But I think your prediction is a bit more sound overall.
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  • dburnedburne Posts: 1,185
    Wintermute
    Not announcing anything in 2018 regarding the next version of high end PC-VR ( CV2), may also depend on how much market share in this arena they are willing to give up. 
    Don

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster
    edited January 3
    dburne said:
    Not announcing anything in 2018 regarding the next version of high end PC-VR ( CV2), may also depend on how much market share in this arena they are willing to give up. 

    Very true. It's hard to tell if there is much to give up considering that the only real competition comes from the Vive, and with HTC's financial strain plus the Google buyout in 2017... is that even a real threat anymore? Articles were released last year stating that the Vive is no longer a viable option due to a combination of Oculus content coupled with the reduced Rift prices.

    As long as someone like LG or Pimax doesn't pull a surprise move



    ... then I think Facebook may feel safe holding out CV2 announcements for another year. Hopefully not though!
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 3,457
    Project 2501
    edited January 3

    Agree with nalex, no CV2 announcement in 2018 but frantic rumours about it towards the end of the year. I think there'll be a couple killer apps that'll be unique and compelling to VR, along with some good quality entertaining games.


    From what we have seen of the new management structure at OVR they are incredibly focused on achieveing the MarkZ request for one billion users by at least 2026 [edited].
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-sets-goal-of-a-billion-virtual-reality-users-unveils-new-headset-1507764852

    Kind of makes it immaterial if a CV2 PC high-end has been announced, as the platform that will be the focus of this "billion" user base will already have had to be in circulation. That platform will be the Standalone - and that will be the focus of most investment. But I am sure there will still be some loving for the PC highend.

    A need to stay competitive will be essential in the face of the LG, Pimax and the new hand controllers from HTC. A updated bundle deal, with slicker support from a PC manufacturer would be my bet, possibly a headset update ala-PSVR?  
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  • dburnedburne Posts: 1,185
    Wintermute
    Hmm I watched his speech during OC4, and don't recall 2020 being the goal for a billion.
    I seem to recall it was more like 10 years or something like that.
    Don

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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 3,457
    Project 2501
    You are correct I have edited it.

    P6ftmuw.jpg
    ** New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,023 Power Poster
    As far as getting VR into the hands (onto the heads?) of a billion users, I think GO will be the platform with the biggest install base. It should be adequate for the sort of VR social app that non-gamers might be interested in, at a price-point that won’t scare off non-enthusiasts. 

    That doesn’t mean that there won’t be any focus on high-end VR. I expect that CV2 will be the test bed for new tech advances before they’re cost-effective enough to make it into the mid- and low-end offerings. 
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster
    edited January 4
    kevinw729 said:
    Kind of makes it immaterial if a CV2 PC high-end has been announced

    The computer tech industry proves you wrong as noted by everyone who enters a "billion dollar consumer" industry while also maintaining their primary focus. Google, for example, is primarily a Search Engine (easily considered the best in the world), yet they have entered the realm of Office Tools via Google Docs, and even Hardware (Google Phone).

    Microsoft and Apple are all primarily driven by their core business of high-end computing, yet they also have smart phones and tablets... because that is a billion dollar market. Microsoft has consoles too, in case you haven't noticed.

    At no point has the new ventures taken by Google, Microsoft, and Apple resulted in any of them abandoning their key objectives. There is no reason to believe that Facebook's desire to enter the low- and mid-range market with GO and SC will cause them to treat the Rift's advancements as "immaterial."

    Or perhaps a better example is noting the fact that Nike still makes lots of shoes despite the fact that they also make socks and underwear.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster
    My predictions:
    1) Microsoft will announce WMR headsets work on Xbox after all.
    2) WMR will start grabbing significant market share due to easier setup and superior resolution.
    3) The Vive's popularity will continue to diminish.
    4) The Rift's price will drop to $300 to maintain dominance and it will work.
    5) There will be less paranoia about motion sickness, traditional movement options and games will be more common.
    6) We'll see a general improvement in graphical fidelity of VR games.
    7) Ubisoft will port something to VR and do a shoddy job.

    Ah, these are pretty badass predictions, I must admit.
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 3,457
    Project 2501
    ...
    7) Ubisoft will port something to VR and do a shoddy job.

    The have already dev'ed two VR games:





    P6ftmuw.jpg
    ** New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • BeastyBaiterBeastyBaiter Posts: 645 Poster of the Week
    Home PC was implied, not some amusement park attraction. I'm thinking farcry.
  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,023 Power Poster
    Home PC was implied, not some amusement park attraction. I'm thinking farcry.
    Eagle Flight and Star Trek VR were both decent efforts from Ubi. Not that that precludes the possibility of a shoddy port cash-in. 
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  • Shadowmask72Shadowmask72 Posts: 2,902 Valuable Player
    Tough call really as it's a pretty volatile market.

    1. £299 Rift package a given at some point this year.
    2.Oculus GO won't be as successful as Gear VR in the consumer market (due to lack of mobile phone driving sales)  but will gain ground in the Out of Home Entertainment sector.  :p
    3. Resident Evil 7 will cement itself as the Must Have /Killer Ap VR game experience for this year despite being a year old on PSVR and lacking motion controls support. A benchmark so to speak of a AAA game that features 2D to subsidize the lack of VR sales. 
    4. Pimax 8K will fail as a consumer device due to a number of reasons (mainly cost) but will be great for VR enthusiasts, especially those who enjoy seated experiences. 



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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 3,457
    Project 2501
    Tough call really as it's a pretty volatile market.
    ....
    2.Oculus GO won't be as successful as Gear VR in the consumer market (due to lack of mobile phone driving sales)  but will gain ground in the Out of Home Entertainment sector.  :p
    ....

    You knew this would wake me up  :p

    Agree with the first part though - a lot of people overlook how much of the initial GearVR shipping was discounted, or part of a expensive contract for free. Some researchers have tried to ascertain how many of the sold GVR were being used (with accounts) or just sitting in cupboards unopened, (a mute point as people move onto new (non-compatible) phones).

    Now without a phone deal, the GVR will prove to be a mixed bag - that said, Samsung just announced that their new cost-effective phone range will be compatible with the older GVR VR holster so this could have a interesting impact.

    But to the point that gets me interested - The Out-of-Home entertainment use of GVR has been heavy to say the least. Out of the many new attractions we research, over 50% of them are mobileVR based - that said the new PICO is gaining ground over the limitations of the GVR usage in commercial entertainment.



    I agree that OG will be a big boon to deployment in park and amusement attractions. Now that OVR has a new Business initiative we can expect to see this market pushed heavily - catching up on the money and business Samsung made out of this market previously.

    P6ftmuw.jpg
    ** New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • nroskonrosko Posts: 546
    Trinity
    I predict Oculus Go will not do as well as hoped. We will not see a CV2 this year Oculus will have a quiet year with software releases aimed at the Go. New Vive will come out & do OK but not great, uptake of windows VR will also continue to be slow. PSVR will do really well in 2018. CV2 will be announced towards the end of 2018 for release late 2019 & this will do much better.  
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 3,890 Power Poster
    nrosko said:
    I predict Oculus Go will not do as well as hoped. We will not see a CV2 this year Oculus will have a quiet year with software releases aimed at the Go. New Vive will come out & do OK but not great, uptake of windows VR will also continue to be slow. PSVR will do really well in 2018. CV2 will be announced towards the end of 2018 for release late 2019 & this will do much better.  

    I'm expecting Hans Hartmann to do his magic and get the Go's price down to $99 after a year and we'll see that going mainstream. The Go won't be a raging success at first, I agree, but a year after it launches the thing will fly off shelves.
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  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 3,291 Valuable Player

    Just a note on the amusement park thing, I think using VR on roller coasters is a mistake. I went on Galactica at Alton Towers and what should have been a scary ride was turned into a very novel but underwhelming experience. The scares on such rides usually come from seeing what's in store for you but instead you're bombarded with various sci-fi scenarios that push the physical ride to a secondary background experience. I don't think it was just me either as you watch other people on the ride, they're eerily silent. These rides attract a lot of people because they want to experience VR, not having tried it at home, but I think many come away not realising how good VR really is in scenarios (like home PC VR) where it's adding excitement, not detracting from it.

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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 3,890 Power Poster
    @cybereality is there any chance of getting this stickied at all please? Seems like a good fit for stickiness I reckon.
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  • cyberealitycybereality Posts: 24,700 Oculus Staff
    edited January 4
    snowdog said:
    @cybereality is there any chance of getting this stickied at all please? Seems like a good fit for stickiness I reckon.

     There's already 100 sticky threads, don't think people will mind one more. Wish granted.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 10,516 Power Poster

    Just a note on the amusement park thing, I think using VR on roller coasters is a mistake. I went on Galactica at Alton Towers and what should have been a scary ride was turned into a very novel but underwhelming experience. The scares on such rides usually come from seeing what's in store for you but instead you're bombarded with various sci-fi scenarios that push the physical ride to a secondary background experience. I don't think it was just me either as you watch other people on the ride, they're eerily silent. These rides attract a lot of people because they want to experience VR, not having tried it at home, but I think many come away not realising how good VR really is in scenarios (like home PC VR) where it's adding excitement, not detracting from it.


    Ah, thanks for confirming my suspicions! I missed out on wearing a GearVR at Six Flags during a major ride. However, when I thought about it (theorycraft), I couldn't help but wonder if it would lessen the experience. In my case, I have a phobia of heights which makes rides all the more thrilling. If I cover my face with a VR HMD, while there will still be a fear element... it will definitely be lessened.

    Afterall, VR still maintains "less presence" than the real world.

    Simply put, being atop the 500 foot platform in Oculus Dream Deck is scary, but being atop a real life 500 foot platform would be absolutely dreadful (I'd probably pass out lol).

    I think VR arcades and other physical attractions will have a place in the Industry, but for now they will almost certainly remain the black sheep of VR experiences. Too much physical movement while wearing these First Gen HMD's just isn't that great an idea.

    It's also the reason that Seated/Standing experiences won out over Room-Scale experiences. Immersion comes from the mind, not the body. Keeping the body "at rest" will free up the mind to fall deeper in to immersion. Any form of physical movement lessens the experience, imo.

    My first-hand experiences comes from boxing in VR. While I love the physical nature of it... my immersion is completely broken lol

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  • Atmos73Atmos73 Posts: 2,889 Valuable Player
    Wow where to start...

    First I want a disclaimer, my predictions are very specific so have major chances of being wrong! I could play it safe and be vague like Zenbane but I'm not one to shy away from a challenge.

    First I get a shiney new 8k 4k 2k or what ever you want to call it - 2nd Gen HMD in 2018. Given! People here bash it for all its faults and short coming but it gives great immersion with its 200FOV.

    Second I get some shiney new Knuckle controllers around March 2018.

    Third, HTC release an updated Vive package with BS 2.0 and Knuckles around March 2018 - for $500.

    Forth, Budget Cuts or one of Valves games gets released in March 2018 with full Knuckle support.

    Fifth, Samsung release a Stand alone HMD in Q4 2018.

    Sixth, Oculus announce Santa Cruz AKA Stand Alone release at OC5 for a Q1 2019 release.

    Seventh, Apple announce a VR HMD in October 2018.

    Eight HTC announce 1 million Vive sales in 2018.

    Ninth Oculus announce 1 million Rifts sales in 2018.

    Tenth Microsoft announce 1 million WMR sales in Q4 2018.

    Eleventh, Foveted rendering goes big in Q4 2018.

    Twelth, Microsoft announce WMR CV2 with built in Foveted rendering and XBOX support in 2018.

    So theres just a few.


     
    DK2 owner - Vive owner - Pimax 8k backer
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