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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

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  • CongratulationsCongratulations Posts: 124
    Art3mis
    I predict that they might make wireless head phones for CV1 Santa Cruz and go for 2018?
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,714 Valuable Player

    Just a note on the amusement park thing, I think using VR on roller coasters is a mistake.
    .....
    These rides attract a lot of people because they want to experience VR, not having tried it at home, but I think many come away not realising how good VR really is in scenarios (like home PC VR) where it's adding excitement, not detracting from it.


    Thanks for the observation @DaftnDirect
    I have to agree that we are at the beginning of the reestablishment of the technology as a viable platform. Only someone without a clear perspective dismiss it out of hand without considering this as a beginning of a great opportunity. The argument that says this is "not viable" is the same argument that was levelled at Palmer and Sony when they proposed that VR should be tried again in the mainstream.

    I am happy you had a chance to try one of our clients platforms - I agree that the Galatica is not the best example of the approach towards VR on a flat ride - it ticks a lot of the boxes but also is hindered by a number of issues. But is still a very popular ride at the venue.

    To date we have over 40 theme "park" attractions running on three styles of VR platform. Obviously our friends at VR Coaster have invested the most into the game, with their partnership with Samsung and they too have learnt some hard lessons. Most of these have been due to the great limitations of the VR holster and phone deployed in a commercial setting:



    Beyond that we have the Merlin investment into the technology, and the development of Galatica and the Daren Brown Ghost Train. It is the lessons learned on this deployment that has lead to the success that is seen with the Kraken attraction at SeaWorld (same developers) - unanimously claimed to be one of the best applications of VR on a coaster:



    It is interesting to know, unlike what some critics claim, Kraken does not use GVR, but a proprietary all-in-one headset system that also addresses 90% of the issues seen with the GVR in the field. Just to one poinjt you made about the experience. We have noticed that many of those made uncomfortable by coaster rides like the VR application as it gives them a different stimulus to focus on - but agreed if you are a true adrenaline junkie you want to see the track (that why there is the option!)

    The point is that we are at a very early stage of deployment of VR into theme park attractions - while at the same time we are at a early stage of VR Arcade deployment and the new Location-based entertainment applications. Those that claimed that this sector was either a niche that would never be relevant, or claimed it was not viable as a business, are now scrabbling to try and re-write their previous criticism with dubious statements.

    Just to underline my position - as a consultant that works with these developers and operators, based on my experience in the field I am still very sceptical of what VR can offer in the mass audience entertainment field in its current form. But with the announcement of the use of new HMD's (such as StarVR, Pimax, LG, etc.,) we can at least offer a VR experience that the majority of the audience "will not" be able to achieve at home.

    The news of the use of Standalone WinMR VR systems on attractions is about to gain momentum - we were one of the first to report the use of the tech on the Acer partner Simulator project. And we hope to report on a brand new VR coaster system using the new wide FOV headsets before the end of the month. Along with this, and the great interest in VR backpack (Arena Scale) experience - Out-of-Home entertainment applications are moving in some interesting directions - just like with the early days with the DK2.

  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    Atmos73 said:

    Just for the record I disagree with every single one of your predictions.


    I certainly hope so! Every single one of your 2016 and 2017 predictions proved false (and many of them worked against you, like the unreleased Knuckle Controllers, HTC approaching bankruptcy, and VivePort). If you started agreeing with my predictions then I would have to engage in some very serious and thorough self-reflection.


    First I want a disclaimer, my predictions are very specific so have major chances of being wrong! I could play it safe and be vague like Zenbane but I'm not one to shy away from a challenge.


    LMAO - You literally started off by playing it safe and shying away from a challenge by putting up that safety net disclaimer.

    That entire sentence can be accurately rephrased as,
    "First I want to play it safe with this safety net disclaimer by saying that my predictions are probably wrong so don't hold me to them. I dont want to play it safe like Zenbane who didn't use a safety net disclaimer at all."

    I sure hope you put more thought than that in to your 2018 predictions list
    :D
  • BrockKaneBrockKane Posts: 111
    Art3mis
    edited January 2018
    Rift will go wireless! Rift will go wireless! Did I mention..... oh never mind!
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    kevinw729 said:

    The point is that we are at a very early stage of deployment of VR into theme park attractions - while at the same time we are at a early stage of VR Arcade deployment and the new Location-based entertainment applications. Those that claimed that this sector was either a niche that would never be relevant, or claimed it was not viable as a business, are now scrabbling to try and re-write their previous criticism with dubious statements.


    Nice bait, but purely false. OOH was advocated for back in 2014 and now it is 2018 - 4 years later - and even you are forced to admit that OOH is, "at a early stage of VR Arcade deployment and the new Location-based entertainment application."

    Being at the early stages after 4 years of trying only validates all the critics who claimed it was not viable as a business.

    If anyone is trying to rewrite a narrative it would be the individual making it seem like 4 years in an infancy stage somehow proves multi-year industry success.

    So do you have any predictions to make in this thread, or will you stick to launching another OOH campaign? I'm happy to provide that platform for you.
    B)
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    Atmos73 said:
    Zenbane you only made 4 predictions whoop de friggin do.


    This is only the 4th day of the New Year, and since you clearly don't understand how forums work... the predictions are ongoing in this thread. I will make more as news develops and time passes. Yet no matter how many predictions I  make, unlike you I will not add a safety net disclaimer to serve as a scapegoat when the predictions fall flat.
    ;)


    Atmos73 said:
    Do you think CV2 with ditch Contellation and use inside out tracking like Santa Cruz?


    Are you talking about the Oculus Rift CV2? And are we talking about the year 2018?

    If the answer is yes to both... then, no. I do not believe that the Rift CV2 will abandon Constellation in favor of Inside-Out tracking in 2018. Especially since there probably won't be a Rift CV2 in 2018 lol
  • cyberealitycybereality Posts: 26,156 Oculus Staff
    edited January 2018
    This is definitely getting into personal attack territory. I know you guys like to play with fire (meaning @Zenbane and @Atmos73 ), but this is becoming too much. If you can't have a civil discussion I will have to start locking threads or taking further action. Thanks.
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  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 6,228 Volunteer Moderator

    @kevin729, I think VR amusements parks deserves a thread all to itself as there are so many possibilities. Is there a thread?


    One thing I will say is that I was very impressed with the technology on Galactica. No-one was allowed to wear glasses so I was immediately weary of what kind of vision to expect having -5 & -5.5 prescription & astigmatism but the focal adjustment on those HMDs allowed for a perfectly crisp image indeed (I think I was at the limit of adjustment) and super high resolution.


    For me the issue is choice if experience, the roller coaster just isn't the right one in my opinion. Partly because the real-world scares were being masked and partly the social aspect of amusements... you really want to share the scares with the people you're riding with and VR in that instance was kind of isolating.


    Where VR really works I think is with an attraction that enhances the social interaction and makes use of VRs ability to add thrills to an otherwise normal space. I've seen one where a simple maze has been transformed into a ghost house type walk-through with amazing results (can't remember where it was though). Or small experiences where you take turns while your friends watch and take the piss, ideal for pubs.


    But like you say, it's early days and I certainly wouldn't dismiss any attraction without trying it first.

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    This is definitely getting into personal attack territory. I know you guys like to play with fire (meaning @Zenbane and @Atmos73 ), but this is becoming too much. If you can't have a civil discussion I will have to start locking threads or taking further action. Thanks.

    Agreed.

    I should add a notation to the main post making it clear that this thread should be used to share predictions, and not used to launch crusades nor judge other people's predictions. When I quoted the Atmos and Kevin quotes at the start of the thread, for example, I added zero opinion or judgements of my own.

    The idea is to make the mass-prediction making feel more fun and centralized; not make people feel "dumb" for being wrong. Case in point, by the time December 31st 2018 rolls around... I plan to have been wrong about at least 75% of my predictions! But I'm gonna ride that 25% accuracy well in to 2019 lol

    Some predictions can make things feel personal but hopefully we can all share controversial predictions without attacking each other.

    However, this thread will certainly need the Mod's to play referee from time to time since a few of us don't exhibit much self-restraint (I don't think I was born with that trait).

    Cheers!
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    BrockKane said:
    Rift will go wireless! Rift will go wireless! Did I mention..... oh never mind!

    Technically this already occurred near the end of 2017 with TPCast. Reports from users claim that a 3rd party software utility is needed to make it work as good as a tethered Rift, but close enough!
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,714 Valuable Player
    ....
    If you can't have a civil discussion I will have to start locking threads or taking further action. Thanks.

    Can we avoid locking threads - it kind of plays into the hands of the perpetrators, achieving what they are hoping to trigger, and closes a discussion for the rest of the participants - just get rid of the problem please.

    Anyway, trying to get this back on track after the latest derailment, and answering the question that was made.
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    kevinw729 said:

    Can we avoid locking threads - it kind of plays into the hands of the perpetrators, achieving what they are hoping to trigger, and closes a discussion for the rest of the participants - just get rid of the problem please.

    Anyway, trying to get this back on track after the latest derailment, and answering the question that was made.

    Talking about OOH at length in this thread is a derailment of the main topic.

    Indirectly referring to me as a "problem to get rid of" and a "perpetrator" most certainly feels like a personal attack.
  • cyberealitycybereality Posts: 26,156 Oculus Staff
    So I do not like locking threads in general. But sometimes things will spiral out of control and there is no saving the discussion. In this case, I think there is valuable information. So how about we agree to stay on topic and not to discuss other forum members or reply to others in an aggressive way? Please agree by liking this post and let's not discuss further and only stay on the topic. Thanks.
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  • cyberealitycybereality Posts: 26,156 Oculus Staff
    My prediction is that that Oculus Go will be the hottest item of the year. Everyone will want one!
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,714 Valuable Player
    DaftnDirect said:
    @kevin729, I think VR amusements parks deserves a thread all to itself as there are so many possibilities. Is there a thread?
    I totally agree - it was suggested we move the Out-of-Home entertainment VR stuff into its own "commercial VR" section. But it was suggested by the moderators that this would move it away from those that find this interesting. Not sure if now may be the best time to reconsider this, especially with the developments with the Oculus Business Edition due to be announced - and also as we need to manage positing more and more nowadays?

    ....but the focal adjustment on those HMDs allowed for a perfectly crisp image indeed (I think I was at the limit of adjustment) and super high resolution.
    The guys at the developers did a great job fulfilling the requirements and stipulations Merlin placed on them. All hats off to them - and they would be the first to say it ain't perfect, but the system works as a viewing platform for the widest audience. A lot of companies are trying to guess the secret towards how they achieved such a saturation of image and effects on a limited GVR smartphone  :p

    For me the issue is choice if experience, the roller coaster just isn't the right one in my opinion. Partly because the real-world scares were being masked and partly the social aspect of amusements...
    What you call "amusement" I would describe as interactive engagement (semantics I know). Your right, if there is no interactivity, all you are is sitting back and watching a ride film while sitting on the best ride in the park! But you have to understand - baby steps.

    Look I have been working on digital interactive amusement/attractions since the 90's - anyone that tells you that this is the first immersive media based theme park coaster is showing a woeful lack of any industry knowledge:



    Okay, the tech was crude then - and has got better, but the same issues of media, engagement and detail of interactivity are all factors - and many of the lessons we learned with the last phase of VR attempted adoption are still being applied today. I know a lot of individuals got sick of my harping on about VR in amusement and attractions back in 2013 when I started posting on MTBS3D and then when I came over to here and the HTC/Valve forum - but now many see the point I was making ("commercial first, consumer most!")

    Most of the focus on next gen VR attractions is to go down a refined interactive route - building on better motion systems suited to pushing the immersive envelopes in that genre.


    Where VR really works I think is with an attraction that enhances the social interaction and makes use of VRs ability to add thrills to an otherwise normal space....
    You are partly right - "the right horse for the right course".
    We have at least five different flavours of immersive entertainment genres in our inventory (at this time) in the out-of-home entertainment scene. The backpack VR system offers the multiple player 'Arena Scale' experience - but we are also working on new Mixed Reality (not WinMR) systems that offer audience engagement and interactivity, without the isolation of current style HMD's for 'Dark Rides':

    [Picture Removed]

    It is dangerous to get fixated on what is happening now - that is why those without any vision could not see the business opportunities - and many are playing catch-up to jump onto the bus. Or we see software publishers pivoting to now turn their skills to the financial reward from an amusement application of their work.

    Just look how Ubisoft has jumped onto the VR bandwagon for Out-of-Home entertainment with their brand new virtual maze system. At the moment its running Rabbids [video above], but already they are testing an Assassins Creed game for the platform that is the equal of what our friends at The VOID are testing.
    DaftnDirect said:
    But like you say, it's early days and I certainly wouldn't dismiss any attraction without trying it first.
    Never dismiss - just build on achievements.

    Thanks for the opportunity to have a discussion about this.
  • Stryker1000Stryker1000 Posts: 489
    Trinity
    I still predict a riot !
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    My prediction is that Oculus Go will be the hottest item of the year. Everyone will want one!

    I will be getting both Go and Santa Cruz; both specifically to help support my WebVR efforts in 2018. Fun road ahead!
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    So I do not like locking threads in general. But sometimes things will spiral out of control and there is no saving the discussion. In this case, I think there is valuable information. So how about we agree to stay on topic and not to discuss other forum members or reply to others in an aggressive way? Please agree by liking this post and let's not discuss further and only stay on the topic. Thanks.

    Oi!!! If you keep on saying I'm being too aggressive I'll smash your fucking face in!!! :D:p
  • cyberealitycybereality Posts: 26,156 Oculus Staff
    edited January 2018
    snowdog said:
    Oi!!! If you keep on saying I'm being too aggressive I'll smash your fucking face in!!! :D:p

     I get that you're joking, but this is not helping.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018

    Something I find rather interesting with the VR Dialogue outside of this forum...

    Is the fact that most folks are still looking back at 2017. When I first started this thread I tried to Google a few sources for some general industry predictions. Yet most analysts are still looking backwards.

    Even the Facebook Rift and VR Groups are still looking back at 2017.

    Don't get me wrong, I think that 2017 was a great year for VR overall: mobile, console, and high-end PCVR. Hell, it was a great year for Facebook, Oculus, and Rift owners!

    But I'm less interested in basking in past glory and far more interested in what's to come over the next 12 months.

    The predictions provided in this thread in a single day already outnumber and outweigh the entirety of those provided throughout the rest of the online social outlets combined.



  • LuciferousLuciferous Posts: 2,545 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    I was thinking the same as Kevin about the Santa Cruz becoming the Rift CV2 but by allowing it to connect to a PC as well, allowing the PC to bypass the on board processing and allow it to have optional standalone sensors for increased accuracy. That way you could unplug it when you wanted to use it away from home, giving you the best of both worlds.
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,402 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    I was thinking the same as Kevin about the Santa Cruz becoming the Rift CV2 but by allowing it to connect to a PC as well, allowing the PC to bypass the on board processing and allow it to have optional standalone sensors for increased accuracy. That way you could unplug it when you wanted to use it away from home, giving you the best of both worlds.

    I don't see how it would be considered "Second Gen" as a CV2 if it is "downgrading" the tracking from Constellation to Inside-Out. If this prediction were to come to fruition, it would do so in a situation where the Rift itself is discontinued and the Santa Cruz becomes the leading headset for both mid- and high-end VR.

    I feel that these types of predictions should be more about the Rift being discontinued as opposed to a Second Gen Rift getting a downgrade. But who knows, you could be right. Stranger things have happened!
    :)
  • LuciferousLuciferous Posts: 2,545 Valuable Player
    I meant using inside-out when mobile and both when plugged in.
  • stargate88stargate88 Posts: 46
    Brain Burst
    I predict:
    1) Oculus Go will be the gadget to get for xmas this year.
    2) Pre order for Santa Cruz will be announced at OC5.
    3) Demo of technology Oculus is working on for CV2 will be demo at OC5 (foveated rendering / multifocal) . But still no date announced.
    4) VR 180 will become beter and more popular for VR than 360 videos. Google VR 180 will raise the bar of the quality/price ratio of VR 180 cameras. John Carmack helping in the video pipeline. 
    5) HTC will announce an improved vive beginning of January. The 8th to be more precise ;-)

  • shadowfroggershadowfrogger Posts: 502
    Trinity
    edited January 2018
    Predictions, My favorite!
    I prediction that the market cap will reach about 5 trillion by the end of 2018 for all Cryptocurrencies combined!!
    ...wait wrong forums.. VR predictions!!

    Oculus Go will retail for $249 and will go on to sell over 10million units by end of year.
    Santa Cruz will make a appearance at Oculus connect but not be released or even get a release date.
    The Rift Cv 2 will be separate from Santa Cruz, It will be announced first half of 2019 and be out before the end of 2019.
    (Oculus can't afford to wait till 2020, not with the advancement everyone is making including Oculus)
    Magic Leap creative editions may see some use in the commercial/entertainment area around the end of 2018.
    The first large AAA (40million+) ground up VR(only) game gets announced.
    The PCVR market starts to gain momentum (3-5x sales of PCVR compared to 2017)

    Not sure if CV2 will be based on gen 2 Santa Cruz tracking or Constellation, Maybe you could have a mix and get away with just 1 camera instead of 2/3.
    Visit my amateur homegrown indie game company website!
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,714 Valuable Player
    ....
    Magic Leap creative editions may see some use in the commercial/entertainment area around the end of 2018.
    ....
     B) 
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,714 Valuable Player
    snowdog said:
    ....
    2) @Atmos73 and @Zenbane will both get banned a few times this year.
    ....
    And you all heard it here first. B)


    And we have a winner!
  • dburnedburne Posts: 4,038 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:

    Atmos73 said:

    Third, HTC release an updated Vive package with BS 2.0 and Knuckles around March 2018 - for $500.

    Forth, Budget Cuts or one of Valves games gets released in March 2018 with full Knuckle support.

    Think I got my prediction on new Vive right and even the date!

    The guys from Budget Cuts just tweeted too.




    I thought it was 6 months away ( 12 for the wireless) ?
    Don

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  • neocalericneocaleric Posts: 48
    Brain Burst
    edited January 2018
    Let's join this game. Predictions for 2018!
    1. Oculus Go is a success on casual market. (not a massive one but it sells enough to make it profitable)
    2. VivePro does barely ok. Perhaps price point too high or not that much of a difference with current tech to justify an upgrade.
    3. We get release date and price point for Santa Cruz at OC5. Comes Q4 2019 at $399. But here's the catch, this is actually CV2. Standalone stays on Go, CV2 connects wirelessly to a PC for best possible VR experience. Updated screens, fov, ergonomics, tracking and controllers. Basically an upgrade on all fronts. Still no foveated rendering or eye tracking though.
    4. Skyrim VR, Doom VFR and Fallout 4 VR get official Oculus compatibility
    5. PSVR continues dominating the VR market. It gets a price drop and maybe updated dedicated controllers.
    6. Biggest upgrades we all get come from the Oculus Home experience as it continues to evolve and integrate social aspects.
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