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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    I think that number 4 is a bit of a tall order, but I'd love to see it happen :D
  • FlakMagnetFlakMagnet Posts: 169
    Art3mis
    1. Vive Pro will be considered 'too expensive', but will tempt a lot of people to move from Rift just because of higher resolution.
    2. 'Standard' Vive price will be dropped to around the same price as the Rift (maybe $30 higher) and will start to regain some of the ground it lost when the Rift price was slashed.
    3. Oculus Home will introduce microtransactions so we can buy things to decorate our homes with.
    4. CV2 will be announced at OC5 and will be 4K per eye with built-in upscaling so scenes can still be rendered in lower resolution on older hardware. Will NOT have foveated rendering as this is a feature of rendering, not the HMD!

  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,983 Volunteer Moderator
    edited January 2018
    FlakMagnet said:.
    CV2 will be announced at OC5 and will be 4K per eye with built-in upscaling so scenes can still be rendered in lower resolution on older hardware. Will NOT have foveated rendering as this is a feature of rendering, not the HMD!

    Foveated rendering is a function of both software and hardware. Eye tracking hardware must be built in to the headset so that the software knows which region of the image needs high detail. The software side is a solved problem—Nvidia has already demonstrated working foveated rendering a couple years ago.

    I think that that there’s a good chance CV2 will feature eye-tracking, and with it, foveated rendering. 
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  • FlakMagnetFlakMagnet Posts: 169
    Art3mis
    nalex66 said:
    FlakMagnet said:.
    CV2 will be announced at OC5 and will be 4K per eye with built-in upscaling so scenes can still be rendered in lower resolution on older hardware. Will NOT have foveated rendering as this is a feature of rendering, not the HMD!

    Foveated rendering is a function of both software and hardware. Eye tracking hardware must be built in to the headset so that the software knows which region of the image needs high detail. The software side is a solved problem—Nvidia has already demonstrated working foveated rendering a couple years ago.

    I think that that there’s a good chance CV2 will feature eye-tracking, and with it, foveated rendering. 
    Agreed, foveated rendering IS a function of both hardware and software. Yes, nVidia have demoed it. However, support needs to be implemented in the major engines (Unreal, Unity, CryEngine etc.) before any HMD can use it.

    It's just my prediction that even IF CV2 has eye tracking capability that the software side of things won't be in a position to use it. Only my prediction though - I hope I'm wrong :)
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    In theory Oculus could manage that at the SDK level, the same way that ATW and ASW work, meaning that engine support won't be needed.
  • EliteSPAEliteSPA Posts: 1,560
    Project 2501
    Hello Rifters!

    I haven't been in the forums for quite some time, due to the birth of my daughter and a lot of work, I see that this still the same with Zenbane and Atmos jajaja, missed reading those two.

    My predictions for 2018:

    1. Pimax 8k = a disaster and as they did with pimax 4k, the first thing is not 8k, all full of promises and nothing else, nor with a Titan V you will be unable to move frames with this resolution.

    2. Vive Pro (Live 1.5) is just a small screen upgrade but nothing further from what samsung oddisey already offers, just like PS4 Pro, the prices of Vive 1.0 will drop considerably.

    3. Wireless HMD, I personally prefer it to more resolution, because today maintaining 90 FPS is impossible with the hardware we have.

    4. Artificial Intelligence in VR.

    That's it, guys! 

    Happy New Year!


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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,983 Volunteer Moderator
    snowdog said:
    In theory Oculus could manage that at the SDK level, the same way that ATW and ASW work, meaning that engine support won't be needed.
    That's my take as well; it would be an SDK thing along with perhaps a video driver update to support the feature.
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  • jayhawkjayhawk Posts: 825
    3Jane
    edited January 2018
    My predictions:
    1) Microsoft will announce WMR headsets work on Xbox after all.
    As is all it would take is a patch, but a conversion box like PSVR needs would be required for both an HMD and a TV to be connected simultaneously. 

    My prediction for 2018. Vive will finally be a consumer ready version.
  • RedRizlaRedRizla Posts: 7,802 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    I'm looking to see what Nostradamus has to say on the matter. I know my prediction will be the correct one then.
  • jayhawkjayhawk Posts: 825
    3Jane
    RedRizla said:
    I'm looking to see what Nostradamus has to say on the matter. I know my prediction will be correct one then.
    lol. If I remember correctly from the documentary I watched years ago he had made like 3 predictions a day over the course of 3 years, so really, he was bound to get something right.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    Nostradamus was a complete space head apparently. Before his 'visions' he took hallucinogenic drugs, sit by a window and watch a water filled copper bowl that was sitting on a tripod. The breeze ruffled the water and he used to write what he saw during his trips. But it gets worse lol

    When he was writing these things down he used to switch between different languages, often mid sentence. And if that wasn't enough a lot of the things that he wrote made no sense at all. So how have people translated these predictions? By taking out letters, adding letters and making anagrams of what's left.

    He was actually a VERY intelligent bloke, spoke six or seven languages including a few ancient ones, and he was WAY ahead of his field when it came to medicine.

    But he was also a bit of a mad space head lol
  • RedRizlaRedRizla Posts: 7,802 Valuable Player
    edited January 2018
    I think the predictions like Planes/Submarines and wars were bound to happen. All these people did was study nature to realise these things would happen one day. Take how a bird flies for example. Now think of nature and something that hasn't been matched already by us humans
  • flexy123flexy123 Posts: 793
    3Jane
    edited January 2018
    1) Vive Pro becoming a success? Depends on the price. Even as a Rift user I admit that the Vive Pro is tempting, but not $800 or more "tempting". Atmos mentioned something about "Vive Pro with Knuckles for $500" <-- which is absolutely illusory. Will never happen.

    2) Pimax 8K, I agree with many. It simply won't work out. It will be released and "work somehow", but likely with a plethora of issues and glitches. Everything points to that, I am afraid.

    3) Oculus will continue to push their mobile kiddy devices like they're the best thing since sliced bread. Whether Go will be a success, I honestly don't know. I see it possible that it becomes VERY successful, but I can also see it flopping. For each side, there are various reasons. OTOH, standalone VR that is better than phone VR of course sounds good. But I am afraid that the "low end market" for VR is already tainted by mobile/phone VR crappola, which means that the target audience ALREADY established an opinion that "VR is a gimmick" and don't have the interest in it as Oculus may believe. Likewise, I also think that MS will push MSVR a lot and that MSVR *might* well become defacto VR standard for "average people".

    4) It's POSSIBLE that Oculus realizes at some point that keeping quiet about a real CV2 for the entirety of 2018 and the largest of 2019 is not such a good idea. It's possible that we might hear about an upcoming CV2 earlier than expected, simply as a way to tease people that in-fact something better will come out - rather than leaving Rift users in the dust. Here, imagine that Vive Pro would REALLY come at a reasonable price (which I don't think), I can see this as a problem for Oculus. (Personally I would be VERY tempted if I knew there is an alternative HMD with somewhat better resolution and most importantly better optics, with less SDE and less god rays. I still don't know however whether Vive really improved optics or whether they use the same one, there is different information out there. If such a HMD would cost $500...well....

    5) As it looks, and this is not just my own opinion but seems what a lot of people think, Vive Pro currently looks like "the real deal" because it offers at least SOME improvements over older gen....while Pimax will likely stay a pipe dream.

    Just stating my opinion :)
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    I don't think there's much doubt that the Oculus Go is going to be a success. It's going to be HUGE in China before you start to think about the West. It being binary compatible with the Gear VR the Gear VR means it's going to launch with A LOT of great quality software on day one, and being compatible with the Mi VR SDK too in China means that it can use the Mi VR Store over there.

    It's basically going to be a money tree for Oculus in the Far East lol
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    The Oculus Go is releasing 'early 2018' according to Oculus.

    The Oculus Go is going to have a far superior library of software compared to Daydream right from the start, and why on earth will persons with ANY sort of phone worry about anything? That's the main advantage of the Go over ANY other sort of Mobile VR headset. YOU DON'T NEED A PHONE TO USE THE THING.


    And the Xiaomi deal is HUGE.

    Oculus are going to make a shitload of cash out of the Oculus Go worldwide, and that's before Hans Hartmann manages to cut the production costs by 50% either late this year or early next year.

    The Santa Cruz, on the other hand isn't going to make a great deal of cash. I honestly can't understand why they're releasing the thing, its not as bad a business decision as the Vive Pro but it's still a bad business decision imo. Oculus will probably break even on it in the long run.

  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    Of course it's going to take the world by storm. Even if NOBODY buys it in the West despite its superior library compared to Daydream it's going to sell like CRAZY in the Far East.

    Oculus basically have a very nice money tree here. The Go is going to make stupid amounts of money for them.
  • ThreeSixty404ThreeSixty404 Posts: 1
    NerveGear
    Will there be another discount soon?
    I would like to buy the Oculus bundle but I'm on a certain budget right now.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,927 Valuable Player
    Will there be another discount soon?
    I would like to buy the Oculus bundle but I'm on a certain budget right now.

    I'm expecting it drop to $299/£299 some time this year. They'll probably announce it at F8 or at OC5.

    Atmos73 said:
    snowdog said:

    Oculus basically have a very nice money tree here. The Go is going to make stupid amounts of money for them.
    The HMD will be a loss leader at $199 and software sales will dry up as most people switch to Daydream.

    Don't forget too, GO has no front camera so can't do AR or any cool stuff that most Mobiles can do now. I'd be hard pushed to know what to do with it if I had one.

    You're also forgetting the difference in quality. We're not talking about a device powered by a smartphone here, hands on reports of the Oculus Go say that the quality of the displays is somewhere between the Gear VR and the Rift.

    And a loss leader..? That would imply that they're making a loss on the hardware, what makes you think that Oculus and Facebook are going to change their approach. They'll sell it at cost, not at a loss. As for the software drying up we'll have to wait and see here in the West but the software sales will be CRAZY in China - and whilst they won't get the lion's share of the software sales over there on the Mi VR Store over there I guarantee you that they'll be getting a decent cut as part of the licencing with Xiaomi.

    The Oculus Go will also get plenty of developer support in the West because, as I've already mentioned, it's going to sell A LOT. It's going to be the must-have item at Christmas this year over here as long as Oculus don't shit the bed regarding the battery power.
  • NexovusNexovus Posts: 3
    NerveGear
    edited January 2018
    I hope eye tracking gets added to Oculus.
  • flexy123flexy123 Posts: 793
    3Jane
    edited January 2018
    Eye tracking, if at all, is still something for "in the future". Eye tracking by itself would just provide limited use. IMO, its main purpose would be in combo with foveated rendering. And then, THIS would be huge.

    But: This only makes sense when the benefit of eyetracking/foveated rendering etc. *vastly* outweighs the overhead it itself has. And the question here is whether current hardware, GPUs etc. are ready for this? Don't forget that the purpose of foveated rendering is to speed up things..means to be able to run massive resolutions but with low/medium hardware. My knowledge there of course is limited, but it may well be that it only makes sense in hardware (aka: custom chips) and/or new GPUs who support it in h/w....and whether we will be at that point in 2019 when CV2 is supposed to come out..who knows. On the other hand, it might WELL BE that during 2019...we hear some announcement that Oculus/Nvidia etc. will come out with absolute badass new GPUs/VR..which does exactly this...in hardware! I am sure Oculus doesn't just sit there twiddling their thumbs, I am sure stuff is in development...question is when it will be ready.
  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,983 Volunteer Moderator
    edited January 2018
    Both Nvidia and a couple third parties have demonstrated functioning foveated rendering and eye tracking in recent years. Another upstart, Tobii, showed a kit at CES this year.

    Oculus bought up an eye-tracking company in 2016, so it’s fair to assume that they’ve been working on it. I don’t know how close they are to a complete product, but the pieces are all there—affordable small 4K screens, eye-tracking technology, and foveated rendering that can be done at the driver level, and has been shown to provide a significant performance benefit while being unnoticeable to the user. Given what a huge quality improvement it would allow, I would be surprised if it wasn’t being worked on for CV2, and I think it would be worth waiting for. 
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  • neocalericneocaleric Posts: 48
    Brain Burst
    I just learned about Go's competition, the Daydream standalone. It will indeed be trying to do the same things. I can't find a price point for it though. That might be a deciding factor. Also comfort and available software at launch. In this area i think Go has the upper hand since most GearVr apps are going to be ported and Oculus has been supporting and developing many quality games for their headsets. Some people here seem to really like this Daydream though but i don't quite understand what's so good about it vs. Go. Would be nice to get more information :)
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,401 Valuable Player
    EliteSPA said:
    Hello Rifters!

    I haven't been in the forums for quite some time, due to the birth of my daughter and a lot of work, I see that this still the same with Zenbane and Atmos jajaja, missed reading those two.

    My predictions for 2018:

    1. Pimax 8k = a disaster and as they did with pimax 4k, the first thing is not 8k, all full of promises and nothing else, nor with a Titan V you will be unable to move frames with this resolution.

    2. Vive Pro (Live 1.5) is just a small screen upgrade but nothing further from what samsung oddisey already offers, just like PS4 Pro, the prices of Vive 1.0 will drop considerably.

    3. Wireless HMD, I personally prefer it to more resolution, because today maintaining 90 FPS is impossible with the hardware we have.

    4. Artificial Intelligence in VR.

    That's it, guys! 

    Happy New Year!



    Glad to see you back! You and Jakeman both returned in 2018, a good start to the New Year for Rifters.

    Great prediction list. I want to give a +1 to the AI in VR, it's highly needed! I will add that this merging of bleeding edge technology will help push VR in to the business sector 100-fold (moreso than any of the current attempts to have commercial VR).
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,401 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:
    Don't forget too, GO has no front camera so can't do AR or any cool stuff that most Mobiles can do now. I'd be hard pushed to know what to do with it if I had one.

    GO owners will do what the 5 million+ GearVR owners are doing: Playing the best app's available on the VR Market as provided by the Oculus Platform. Only now those with unsupported VR compatible phones can partake, and everyone else tired of wasting their phone battery in VR can remove the needless dependency.

    More than 5 million Gear VR headsets sold worldwide:
    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-01-05-5m-gear-vr-headsets-sold-worldwide

    Oculus gets a cut from each App purchase via Oculus Home. This will extend to Oculus GO, a Facebook product, and more than 1 billion people use Facebook:
    • 1.37 billion daily active users on average for September 2017
    • 2.07 billion monthly active users as of September 30, 2017
    https://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/


    Subtract 5 million from 2.07 billion to determine the potential of Oculus GO.
  • Star-lizardStar-lizard Posts: 347
    Trinity
    edited January 2018
    https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/13/tobii-vr-eye-tracking/

    Doesn't sound like eye tracking is that far out 
    Part of the article
    I also played through a scenario similar to Star Trek Bridge Crew, which involved manipulating a daunting number of buttons and dials on a spaceship. If you've played that Star Trek VR game, you'd know that one tough part of it is making sure you hit the right button at the right time. With eye tracking in Tobii's scenario, I only had to look at a button to select it. The company's tracking technology did a solid job of choosing the right button most of the time, even though the demo had plenty of other things to select nearby.
    In addition to simply making VR interaction more fluid, Tobii claims that eye tracking will also allow for more efficient foveated rendering. That's a technique that makes your computer devote most of its graphics power to what you're seeing, while keeping offscreen content at a lower quality. Typically, foveated rendering works across the entire screen, no matter where you're technically looking. But with eye tracking, it can focus the best quality to what your eyes are actually pointed at, while slightly downgrading what's around it. Tobii quietly enabled the feature during my last demo, and I was surprised that I didn't even notice it in action. The big benefit? It could make it easier to run VR on slower systems.
  • IriodusIriodus Posts: 12
    NerveGear
    edited January 2018
    My predictions for 2018 are as follows:

    1) We'll see a progress update for the CV2 sometime in Q3 of 2018, no release date will be given, the most that we'll be told is that it will be done sometime between Q3 of 2018 and Q4 of 2020, or just simply "It'll be done when it's done."

    2) The Vive Pro will see a less than stellar adoption rate by existing Vivers, those otherwise not getting an Oculus headset, or those that have been waiting to get one. HTC will continue to hemorrhage money while other SteamVR-centered headsets will be released that are a much better choice.

    3) Henceforth, Zenbane will not have any more bans in 2018, and Atmos will stop making the same arguments all the time /s
  • IriodusIriodus Posts: 12
    NerveGear
    @Atmos73
    While I fully expect Razor to take a crack at making their own headset, as they have their own smartphone now, I can't say I'd care for it myself, as Razor has always been overpriced for what they are offering (To me), but if their smartphone is any indication it will be high quality (Assuming I'm remembering their phone correctly).
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,401 Valuable Player
    I updated my prediction list by one:
    • In 2018, Onward will still be the game that Vive owners will default to for nearly all discussions.
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,401 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:
    Zenbane said:
    I updated my prediction list by one:
    • In 2018, Onward will still be the game that Vive owners will default to for nearly all discussions.
    Well it’s sold over 100,000 copies. It carries a lot of weight for both Vivers and Rifters. 

    I'm sure it carries weight, but as you said: Rifters own it as well. Many Rifters on this forum have talked about it and play it actively. However, the main difference is that Rifters can actually have an in-depth conversation about VR while referencing "multiple quality games."

    In contrast, Vivers seem to have Onward, only Onward, and nothing but the Onward. Hence my prediction.
  • IriodusIriodus Posts: 12
    NerveGear
    @Atmos73

    You know, I had entirely forgotten about that headset, as it didn't seem to be going anywhere, but despite my aforementioned gripe with Razor products I'd like to actually see this prediction come to pass.
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