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Facebook Aiming For Virtual Reality Dominance

ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 11,540 Power Poster
edited July 10 in General
Great article that presents things quite fairly.

The quick version:
  • Sony is still leading the VR Market in terms of "total units sold."
  • HTC and Facebook are fighting to replace Sony in the Number 1 spot.
  • Facebook is currently more strongly situated for dominance due to its untethered offerings (GearVR, GO, and soon-to-be Santa Cruz).


Sony is in the driver's seat right now, but Facebook is the company to watch in VR.

Virtual reality is still in its infancy, but the companies who can capture a significant share of the market could become leaders in the next major computing market. According to SuperData Research, VR is going to grow from a $4.5 billion business in 2018 to $19.0 billion of revenue by 2021. Early movers see the opportunity in VR and are eager to capture market share.

As big as the VR market is expected to be, there are only a few companies in a viable position to build a platform the industry will grow from for years to come. So far, it's Sony's (NYSE:SNE) PlayStation VR that has a big head start in virtual reality, with over 2 million units sold. But HTC's Vive and Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) Oculus Rift are trying to catch up quickly.

What could reshape the VR landscape in 2018 is Facebook untethering itself from PCs and gaming consoles to make VR mobile.

Why Facebook is behind Sony in VR today

To understand why Facebook is behind in VR and how it could catch up, we need to lay out the VR landscape today. Sony has sold over 2 million PSVR headsets, more than doubling both HTC's Vive and Oculus Rift platforms, which both are arguably higher-quality products. The biggest advantage Sony has in VR is that 76 million PS4 consoles are already installed in people's homes, so adding VR isn't expensive or cumbersome. Vive and Rift still require expensive gaming computers that aren't floating around the average home.

The next generation of headsets will likely eliminate the need for a console or PC, and at that point we should see wider adoption of VR and technology companies like Facebook differentiating themselves.

Facebook's big VR move

The first step beyond tethered VR headsets is the Oculus Go, which is the first stand-alone (no PC or console required) VR headset to hit the U.S. market at a mass-market price point of $200. Oculus Go isn't considered a high-end device because it can't track a user's movement through space like a Vive or Rift can, but it's still a big step forward for the VR industry. What it's perfect for is watching 360 videos and playing simple VR games.

This month, Facebook has shown how it will display the power of Oculus Go by bringing World Cup games to the platform. Users can watch from the stands or near the goalpost, a perspective that would be impossible without being in VR. The company is also adding MLB, NBA, music, and other content to apps like Oculus Venues and Oculus TV.

Just the beginning for Facebook in VR

Oculus's next step is a high-end stand-alone headset it dubbed Santa Cruz, which is expected to be available within the next year. This headset won't require a computer or gaming console, but will allow users to move through a virtual space, like Vive or Rift. It could be a game-changer in VR's adoption in the mass market.

The stand-alone VR market will be key because it expands the universe of customers beyond those with gaming consoles or high-end gaming computers. That's when VR could go truly mainstream and become the $19 billion industry tech companies hope it can be. Facebook certainly looks like it's in a leadership position today.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/08/facebook-aiming-for-virtual-reality-dominance.aspx


I'm a fan of Sony's VR efforts. I love that they launch both long-term exclusives (Resident Evil) and short-term timed exclusives (Robinsons, Moss). I also love that they partake in bringing the times exclusives to PCVR. I enjoyed spending over 12 hours in Robinsons, and I look forward to Moss - all in my Rift.


I'm still a bit sad to see that Microsoft hasn't done much yet. I have no real interest in their WMR Headsets for Entertainment purposes. I'm only looking forward to their potential to reshape the workplace (true CommercialVR) through their Office Suite approach (PowerPoint, SharePoint, Excel, Word, etc).


Overall though, it seems that the race between now and 2021 comes down to Facebook-Oculus and Sony. With HTC's ongoing financial troubles (although it is more of a "crisis" at this point), everyone else will be battling for third place in the global market. Personally, I have been impressed with some of the information about "mind reading" from HTC (controlling VR interaction with human thought). So I'd like to see them come out of their financial ruin. No one else seems to be openly thinking the way of mind-control for VR. Sony is all Entertainment, and Facebook is balancing Entertainment with Social Media. All noteworthy efforts, but I do want to reach The Matrix, na' mean?


For us consumers though, this level of competition is grand! And if you're an entrepreneur: Now is the time to start pitching your VR business concepts. Go get that startup capital!

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Comments

  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 3,270 Valuable Player
    edited July 10
    Whilst I have no doubt mobile vr is the key to bringing vr to the masses I still hope oculus keep pc high end vr as an equal priority. Candy crush may have more users than elite dangerous but I know which one interest me the most. I totally agree accessible vr is an important piece of the jigsaw however.

    Also I have no issue with timed exclusives but the more games which eventually come out cross platform the better imo (I just can't justifyore than ,1 hmd)
    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 5,846 Volunteer Moderator
    edited July 10
    In all honesty, the only real contender will be if Valve decides to make their own VR hardware and not just "licence" it ... like Oculus/Apple etc they will have a Software + Hardware synergy.

    Until then HTC is in trouble, and other Kickstarter manufacturers are going to go into the enterprise market first to even hope to be sustainable and have any hope at making the money back spent on R&D to investors.

    • Oculus operating costs are absorbed by Facebook until fully profitable allowing for a sizeable R&D buffer and plenty of room to fail
    • HTC's costs are no longer sustainable since their mobile division is now part of Google, plus 80% of the tech in the Vive is licenced from Valve.
    • Pimax only has investor money, for now, nothing to subsidise the costs with, no room for failure, none at all
    • When Apple enters the space, all of the above could be royally buggered
    • If Valve decides to make their own hardware .. BOOM ... things will get super interesting

    This fully supports the theory that Oculus/Facbook is the only company at the moment with any real advantage
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  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 5,846 Volunteer Moderator
    Updated the statement a bit :)
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 11,540 Power Poster
    When Apple enters the space, all of the above could be royally buggered


    This was my favorite line! So true.
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  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 5,846 Volunteer Moderator
    Oh, I didn't include Sony in this, they took some old tech that failed from their previous endeavour (years old camera and two plastic cucumbers with glowing balls), slapped a HMD together and called it Next Gen VR. They are dead to me
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  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 3,270 Valuable Player
    edited July 10
    Zenbane said:
    .

    Plus... Zuckerberg has a LOT of money to play with now that he became the Third Richest Person in the damn world:

    Wow!  Did not know that.  lucky bugger!

    i totally agree about valve. They have the clout to really make things interesting in the pc vr space if they made their own hardware.  Like oculus they could be super agressive on hardware prices because they make the money off software. it is another reason why Sony do so well imo.

    I would really like to see it happen. I truly believe competition keeps all players honest
    (I am convinced without the vive we would be all playing on rift with our forward facing 2 camera setups, and perhaps with some trying the diagonal full room... but it is HTC / vive which pushed full room and make oculus take note imo.

    And on the other hand i am equally convinced without oculus vive users would be stuck with their vive wands with no pressure to do anything different but now soon there will be knuckles.

    BUT - and i know some like zenbane disagree, and that is fair enough - but i equally believe their can still be agressive competition between hmds but at the same time allow all PC VR devices to play all PC software.

    Yes i am biased because i got stung, with a videologic PVR card.. butr when you had that, 3DFX and direct 3d cards like the S3 Virge all offering 3D which was incompatible with each other... .they were bad times - unless you were the one with the 3D FX of course!.

    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 4,877 Power Poster
    Pah! Only $81bn? I don't get out of bed in the morning for less than $100bn :o B)
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  • NotnamedfredNotnamedfred Posts: 24
    Brain Burst
    Zenbane said:
    When Apple enters the space, all of the above could be royally buggered


    This was my favorite line! So true.
    You mean apple will **** it up for everyone like they have with the phones. If apple get involved then its going to cost me money every week! Ive noticed there are a few vr games coming through that state in app money laundering required. We must stop this happening because we end up poor and they end up richer 
  • MorgrumMorgrum Posts: 1,249 Poster of the Week
    Its easy dont buy or play the games that force you to spwnd money to get stuff or get over that paywall.
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 3,841 Valuable Player
    edited July 11
    ...
    Until then HTC is in trouble, and other Kickstarter manufacturers are going to go into the enterprise market first to even hope to be sustainable and have any hope at making the money back spent on R&D to investors.
    .....
    This fully supports the theory that Oculus/Facbook is the only company at the moment with any real advantage

    As always I have to agree with a lot of what you say LZ - though I think HTC are holed below the waterline, they have a market presence that is in a strong position, and a Valve or Google based move would not surprise me to ensure that HTC do not totally mess it up. That $2b investment into HTC by Google can not be ignored so easily.

    Obviously Valve is a interesting stalking horse, especially with their LG project plans, and having the PIMAX support their infrastructure gives them a strong position to view the best path. I also see Valve wholly for the PC highend with little or any mobileVR or Standalone interest that will mean that for the majority of the VR community already investment in VR they offer a strong home if CV2 is not ready for a 2020 showing!

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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 4,877 Power Poster
    Not ready for a 2020 showing? It'll be released next year. Oculus know they can't give the CV1 a four year lifespan. We'll see the CV2 being released next year, the Rift continuing to be manufactured and sold for either $249 or $299 for one year before production stops. And by then the CV2 will be ready for a decent price cut too.
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  • Atmos73Atmos73 Posts: 3,128 Valuable Player
    edited July 11
    The OPs article is a little naive. 

    For starters the article fails to mention the biggest player in the VR space and thats Qualcomm of which Oculus is their customer. Every GO sold has a Qualcomm chip inside. Oculus can’t release a headset without Qualcomm and Qualcomm are not exclusive to Oculus infact Qualcomm have manufactured their own HMD the XR1 for any manufacturer to copy.

    Secondly Oculus don’t manufacture their own display panels. They buy them from third parties suppliers like Samsung. Samsung are not exclusive to Oculus either so Oculus once again are limited to the displays other rival manufacturers have access too like Vive Focus. 

    So when you add the sum of the parts Oculus can’t possibly dominate the VR space at all. Android will see off Oculus and Apple will pat Android on the back. Then business as usual. 




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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 4,877 Power Poster
    BOE manufacture the display in the Go and are likely to manufacture the displays in the CV2.

    Yes, the likes of Samsung, BOE and Qualcomm manufacture parts of the Rift and Go but that isn't going to stop Oculus from dominating the industry. After all, the same can be said for all other headsets too.

    The Oculus Go and the Santa Cruz are going to help with the early stages of VR being adopted by mainstream consumers.
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  • Atmos73Atmos73 Posts: 3,128 Valuable Player
    edited July 11
    Oculus don’t even dominate PCVR after 2 years of Facebook billions holding only 46%. If you think Oculus has some magic sauce for Stand alones where is it for PCVR?

    If you think Oculus has a plan to dominate VR what is it? 

    Oculuses PCVR plan for dominance has failed in spectacular fashion because SteamVR dominates PCVR.
    DK2 owner - Vive owner - Pimax 8k backer - Waiting for Knuckles on Valve time.
  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 5,846 Volunteer Moderator
    snowdog said:
    BOE manufacture the display in the Go and are likely to manufacture the displays in the CV2.

    Yes, the likes of Samsung, BOE and Qualcomm manufacture parts of the Rift and Go but that isn't going to stop Oculus from dominating the industry. After all, the same can be said for all other headsets too.

    The Oculus Go and the Santa Cruz are going to help with the early stages of VR being adopted by mainstream consumers.
    I have to say that the panels in the GO which is a budget product are very impressive. They may not be true blacks but after a while, the eyes adjust and you don't really notice anything. This could be improved with dynamic backlighting zones etc.
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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,106 Power Poster
    Atmos73 said:
    The OPs article is a little naive. 

    For starters the article fails to mention the biggest player in the VR space and thats Qualcomm of which Oculus is their customer. Every GO sold has a Qualcomm chip inside. Oculus can’t release a headset without Qualcomm and Qualcomm are not exclusive to Oculus infact Qualcomm have manufactured their own HMD the XR1 for any manufacturer to copy.

    Secondly Oculus don’t manufacture their own display panels. They buy them from third parties suppliers like Samsung. Samsung are not exclusive to Oculus either so Oculus once again are limited to the displays other rival manufacturers have access too like Vive Focus. 

    So when you add the sum of the parts Oculus can’t possibly dominate the VR space at all. Android will see off Oculus and Apple will pat Android on the back. Then business as usual.

    Wait a minute, I read that PieMask was the only true next-gen headset! Why aren't they dominating PCVR?

    Nobody makes all their own components. Apple buys screens from Samsung, etc. The trick is taking the components from companies that specialize in those things (screens, memory, processors, etc) and putting it all together in a package that includes custom-engineered hardware and software to make something that is more than the sum of its parts. Nobody has managed to do that better than Oculus. If it was as simple as having access to higher res screens and cramming them into a headset, it would have been done by now.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 11,540 Power Poster
    edited July 11
    Atmos73 said:
    The OPs article is a little naive. 


    Nah, the article is fact-based. You're just here to troll after the Pimax thread was locked lol


    Atmos73 said:

    For starters the article fails to mention the biggest player in the VR space and thats Qualcomm of


    Qualcomm isn't selling enough to make the list, so no, they are not the biggest player in terms of Global sales, of which Oculus dominates in both hardware and software by powering 3 different HMD's.


    Atmos73 said:

    Secondly Oculus don’t manufacture their own display panels.


    This has zero impact on the analysis of global sales. To help you understand the naivety of your comment: HTC doesn't own their own VR IP; they license it form Valve. And Valve doesn't manufacture their own hardware (more than just the display panels), they rely on 3rd parties like HTC.

    As for all your "exclusivity" whining, take a look at who is in first place: Sony. And they are all about exclusivity.



    Atmos73 said:
    Oculus don’t even dominate PCVR after 2 years of Facebook billions holding only 46%.

    Oculus definitely dominates PCVR, they are the most used headset on the SteamVR Survey, plus they have their own exclusive Store to add to those numbers. You just don't want to accept facts because back in 2016 you predicted Oculus would fail so you bought an HTC Vive, now your Vive belongs to a failing company and all you have left is a scam Kickstarter.
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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,106 Power Poster
    Not sure about what a VR-specific new genre would be, but I'll offer up Echo Arena as a good example of a game that can only exist in VR. The physicality of moving yourself around in virtual space, grabbing onto other players to hitch a ride or knock them out, and catching and throwing the disc... it offers an experience wholly different from what can be done on a 2D screen with a gamepad or keyboard and mouse.
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  • Techy111Techy111 Posts: 4,741 Volunteer Moderator
    edited July 11
    If a truly proper real ground up VR version of COD with weapon attachment hardware produced I would gladly sink into the realm of ready player 1 and never be seen again. Let's keep this thread civil, on topic, informative and a damn good read mmmmkay???
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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 4,877 Power Poster
    I haven't been a fan of CoD for quite some time. The first game was absolutely amazing, the second just as good but way too short and then it went downhill from there. I'm a traditionalist, FPS games shouldn't have perks and stuff. Just give me plain Deathmatch, Team Deathmatch and Capture The Flag, although I was a big fan of the Bounty Hunter multiplayer game mode that the first Conduit game had for the Wii  years ago too.
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  • PabbertPabbert Posts: 218
    Nexus 6
    Its all about the data in the long run
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44793247
    Gotta get something back for pumping millions into VR dev after all
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 11,540 Power Poster
    edited July 11
    Pabbert said:
    Its all about the data in the long run
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-44793247
    Gotta get something back for pumping millions into VR dev after all

    Indeed. I'm always fascinated how people are so calm when everyone else steals their data, but pay so much attention with anything Facebook-related.

    Like when AT&T did it:

    No doubt that the same people upset over Facebook's privacy violations will also be happy to hear that AT&T is jumping in to the VR movement now that they own Magic Leap:
    Magic Leap headsets will run exclusively on AT&T's network
    https://www.engadget.com/2018/07/11/magic-leap-att-partnership/


    Hey look at that, more exclusivity! Because exclusivity is success in a global market.


    When people were rallying against Facebook, I couldn't help but wonder how many of them try to boycott banks. Since Bank's around the Globe foster money laundering schemes to aid organized crime:

    I wonder what has more impact on our standard of living, crime or internet browsing privacy? lol

    This is why I don't mind all the privacy violations occurring, because "people" as an overall group haven't earned anything better. We turn a blind eyed to the worst of it, and raise arms to the most insignificant of causes while far worse is burning at our feet.

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  • PabbertPabbert Posts: 218
    Nexus 6
    Lets be honest, half the people in the world moaning about their data being shared left right and centre don't seem to have a problem sharing their every move via social media.

    Like it or not we could get some amazing info out of VR setups. For example look at the amount of info you can get from a simple wrist worn device (iwatch/fitbit).  Now think of the extra stuff you could diagnose with a VR setup. Eyes, posture, movement, breathing (mic). Apple offload a lot of fitness data from iWatch data, users get a lot out of it as well.
    The firm I work for gave us an iwatch each to take part in a healthy company programme last year. Its all proved useful.
    But at the end of the day the only problem is keeping in control. 
    Our personal data is the last thing we have left to sell. But it could be used ourselves for our own good.
  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 5,846 Volunteer Moderator
    Pabbert said:
    Lets be honest, half the people in the world moaning about their data being shared left right and centre don't seem to have a problem sharing their every move via social media.

    Truer words have never been spoken.

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 11,540 Power Poster
    Pabbert said:
    Lets be honest, half the people in the world moaning about their data being shared left right and centre don't seem to have a problem sharing their every move via social media.

    Like it or not we could get some amazing info out of VR setups. For example look at the amount of info you can get from a simple wrist worn device (iwatch/fitbit).  Now think of the extra stuff you could diagnose with a VR setup. Eyes, posture, movement, breathing (mic). Apple offload a lot of fitness data from iWatch data, users get a lot out of it as well.
    The firm I work for gave us an iwatch each to take part in a healthy company programme last year. Its all proved useful.
    But at the end of the day the only problem is keeping in control. 
    Our personal data is the last thing we have left to sell. But it could be used ourselves for our own good.

    Agree with everything except that last part. We still haven't figured out how to sell our souls! We have songs about it, stories and plays. But we haven't achieved it on a literal scale. Only metaphorical.

    Soul Selling. It's what's for dinner.
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 3,841 Valuable Player
    snowdog said:
    Not ready for a 2020 showing? It'll be released next year. Oculus know they can't give the CV1 a four year lifespan. We'll see the CV2 being released next year, the Rift continuing to be manufactured and sold for either $249 or $299 for one year before production stops. And by then the CV2 will be ready for a decent price cut too.

    I see the point, but as SC gets launched 2019, you think CV2 would also appear... that would be confused, unless SC is CV2?
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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 4,877 Power Poster
    There won't be any confusion at all. I'm expecting the Santa Cruz to launch Q4 this year and the CV2 to launch some time during the first half of next year, and they're aimed at completely different demographics.
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  • MorgrumMorgrum Posts: 1,249 Poster of the Week
    edited July 11
    Atmos73 said:
    ......

    Fixed your post to summerize your standard rethoric.

    Edited by cybereality. Fake quotes are not allowed.
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