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Oculus Roadmap - my predictions for the future

LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 6,774 Volunteer Moderator
So I have seen a lot of discussion with regards to Santa Cruz and CV2 and wanted to offer a few of my own thoughts on the subject.

We now know that SC will be a premium untethered mobile experience with 6dof, this lends to my prediction that Oculus hardware offerings will look like something like this in the near future.

Mobile (will make use of Oculus Mobile app and store)
GO - 3dof - entry level (casual mobile gaming and media consumption)
SC - 6dof - premium (many Oculus rift ports I expect here, plus more intense VR experiences) 

Desktop (will make use of Oculus Desktop App and store)
CV1 (rev2) .. - entry level, I expect Oculus to revise CV1 to make it even cheaper while implementing improved optics/screens and improved tracking with a clear upgrade path for CV2
CV2 .... premium, balls to the wall, bleeding edge consumer VR, 140fov (for enthusiasts, professionals etc)


For pricing, after some thought I have revised my pricing a bit, Oculus has learned a lot over the past two years, plus having a partner like Xiaomi with a wealth of manufacturing experience means we can see some aggressive pricing moving forward, Facebook/Oculus want to make money on software/data, not hardware.

Oculus GO $150-$199
Satna Cruz $299

Oculus CV1 $250-$299
Oculus CV2 $500-$600 

Because both Desktop and Mobile are two completely different verticals they can compete with each other in pricing as they both fill certain needs and expectations. 
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Comments

  • Shadowmask72Shadowmask72 Posts: 4,068 Valuable Player
    "Satna Cruz" can hopeful put my pops in the right VR direction when I buy it for him matey. :D 


    System Specs: RTX 2080 ti , i9 9900K CPU, 16 GB DDR 4 RAM, Win 10 64 Bit OS.
  • RedRizlaRedRizla Posts: 7,010 Valuable Player
    edited July 2018
    @LZoltowski - Don't want to derail the thread, but since you mentioned all these headsets, it's got me thinking about something. Do you think SC might make it difficult for dev teams? Like deciding what best do when it comes to creating their games ..etc? If you have a highend headset like the CV2, then isn't it going to be a bit disappointing if you make the same content for both headsets? On something like CV2, I'd like to see better content, obviously. But might SC stop better content coming through because devs decide to make it for both headsets?
  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 6,774 Volunteer Moderator
    edited July 2018
    RedRizla said:
    @LZoltowski - Don't want to derail the thread, but since you mentioned all these headsets, it's got me thinking about something. Do you think SC might make difficult for dev teams? Like deciding what best do when it comes to creating their games ..etc? If you have a highend headset like the CV2, then isn't it going to be a bit disappointing if you make the same content for both headsets? On something like CV2, I'd like to see better content, obviously. But might SC stop better content coming through because devs decide to make it for both headsets?
    I would imagine they would have a cross-platform SDK, they have already made the SC controllers mirror Touch layout by removing trackpad and adding Thumbsticks. Leads me to believe using the SDK would make it easy for SC and CV1 and CV2 be fairly easy to author experiences.

    This is, of course, all speculation based on my own experience. 

    Android apps are not meant for the desktop and vice versa, developers are aware of that, in fact, I think it gives them a chance to make even more great games at different price points across platforms, mind you there are already cross-platform experiences for GO and CV1 ..
    Core i7-7700k @ 4.9 Ghz | 32 GB DDR4 Corsair Vengeance @ 3000Mhz | 2x 1TB Samsung Evo | 2x 4GB WD Black
    ASUS MAXIMUS IX HERO | MSI AERO GTX 1080 OC @ 2000Mhz | Corsair Carbide Series 400C White (RGB FTW!) 

    Be kind to one another :)
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    I'm pretty sure that the Santa Cruz uses the Mobile SDK that the Gear VR and Oculus Go also use.

    But tbh with game engines these days it's A LOT easier to develop multiplatform titles than it was 15-20 years or so. The likes of Unreal and Unity do most of the heavy lifting for you via plugins and by setting the platform you want the game on when you Package the game.

    From the late 90s onwards game development has become A LOT easier. Before that developers had to create their own engines from scratch. I tried that myself many years ago but I couldn't handle the maths. If my maths teacher at my school in the 80s had told me that vertices, indices etc could be used to make games I probably would have paid more attention lol
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • LuluViBritanniaLuluViBritannia Posts: 523
    Neo
    edited July 2018
    @snowdog Hey there, I'm replying to your comment from the Pimax thread ^^ (at least here it won't be out of the subject xD) : 

    Just because the Santa Cruz is a mobile device doesn't mean they can't get the same performance as Rift on a PC.
    - Remember people used to give the same argument against laptops : "you can't use a laptop for gaming, it's just impossible, they're not powerful enough, this is a mobile device!". Result : there are many gaming laptops, with the same performance as an equivalent desktop PC.
    - Also, remember that the components will be dedicated to VR: a standalone headset must only run what's related to VR. This is an non-negligeable gain: no background app, a much lighter OS, and a different architecture optimized FOR the use of VR.
    - And then, I already mentionned it, but if they can use ASW, it means in terms of performance we can get something as good as the Rift with nearly half the power required: since every game would only need 45 FPS to be smooth, there is no need to get 90. So the headset itself doesn't have to be as powerful as a PC, it just needs to be 50% as powerful.

    For all of this, I truly believe the Santa Cruz can be as powerful as the Rift. I'm not saying it will, though ^^. But Oculus did say that they were targetting the performance of a Rift, and for now, I trust them.

    About Oculus Store, that's a fair point. At least, as long as the Rift games are easy to implement for the Santa Cruz, that's fine.


    ----

    For the future of Oculus, I think LZoltowski gave quite an accurate prediction ^^. The CV1 price will drop (if not this summer, it will be in the end of the year), the Santa Cruz will be, if we believe the words of Oculus, a bit more expensive (for that reason I would rather say the Santa Cruz will cost more than 400€/370$), and the CV2 will be around 600€/550$.

    The CV1 is now more than two years old, so a 2019 launch for the CV2 does seem likely.
    Current VR results imo:
    - Great small apps. Great ports of bigger games.
    - Great VR-specific features. Not enough showcased!!!
    - Too many actors in the industry, the market is totally broken.


    My hopes for VR next gen:

    - Better ratio between visual quality and power needs. No more godrays and less SDE.
    - Full Body Tracking.


    "If you don't mind, do you want me to take you there? Where dreams come true."
  • RedRizlaRedRizla Posts: 7,010 Valuable Player
    Will you be able to get ASW on SC?
  • LuluViBritanniaLuluViBritannia Posts: 523
    Neo
    That... we don't know xD! Theoretically, I don't see why they wouldn't be able to. ASW is just an algorithm, a series of calculations. Why wouldn't that work on any other device?
    Current VR results imo:
    - Great small apps. Great ports of bigger games.
    - Great VR-specific features. Not enough showcased!!!
    - Too many actors in the industry, the market is totally broken.


    My hopes for VR next gen:

    - Better ratio between visual quality and power needs. No more godrays and less SDE.
    - Full Body Tracking.


    "If you don't mind, do you want me to take you there? Where dreams come true."
  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 6,774 Volunteer Moderator
    ASW is basically an auto-generated frame. It uses something called motion vectors, to predict where the pixels will move next. A kind of advanced morphing tech.

    We use this in VFX to create slow-mo video from the normal footage, where new frames are generated by interpolating.

    A lot of TV's do this strange conversion too, the "soap-opera" setting that generates new frames on the fly, making for an unnaturally smooth image, everything looks like it was recorded on a camcorder.

    If the internals of SC has enough headroom for ASW calculations I don't see why they wouldn't use it. Or maybe they are working on ASW 2.0 and will be able to really push the silicon to it's limit, giving us near desktop performance? Who knows.
    Core i7-7700k @ 4.9 Ghz | 32 GB DDR4 Corsair Vengeance @ 3000Mhz | 2x 1TB Samsung Evo | 2x 4GB WD Black
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    Be kind to one another :)
  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,405 Volunteer Moderator
    That "soap opera" effect drove me crazy when my in-laws bought a new Samsung TV several years back. Couldn't find a way to turn it off, and it absolutely ruined the experience of watching a movie on it. Every new TV since, I've researched to make sure that any frame-smoothing feature was optional.
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