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Rift CV2 - Predictions based on recent events for next gen HMD relase date

SkScotcheggSkScotchegg Posts: 689
Neo
edited January 11 in Oculus Rift + Touch
Hey guys, I just wanted to discuss recent events with regards to HTC upcoming HMD's and what this means for us Rift users expecting a release date for CV2 soon. 

Not so long ago we were all talking about that media outlet who was spewing out fake news about Rift CV2 been cancelled we got confirmation from Oculus saying Rift CV2 is still coming. Now with the fact that HTC has got Vive/Vive Pro and soon "Vive Eye" been released. Surely this must mean That Rift CV2 has to be announced very soon as essentially HTC is ahead of Oculus as they have CV1, CV2 and now CV3 coming. Yet us Rift owners are still waiting on our beloved CV2.

So I find the fact that HTC are moving so fast very exciting news for us Rift owners. 

Is anyone else not surprised as well how fast HTC is moving considering they're meant to be going bankrupt?

Lets hear everyone predictions, I really hope that they give us an announcement within the next 2-3 months. Defeintly no later then march. Even if we have to wait a further six months for release. We just need information we can drool over and some nice pretty pictures of Rift CV2 with eye tracking + 160 - 180° FOV!!! :)

Comments

  • dburnedburne Posts: 1,663 Valuable Player
    edited January 11
    I think Oculus has been wanting to wait and release a headset with some very major improvements all around.
    However now with what HTC is doing I would think they would re-evaluate their plans.

    I am still holding out for something from Oculus for PC-VR, but I am not going to hold out forever.
    Need to see some news sooner rather than later. ( certainly sooner than OC6).

    Don

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  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 11
    The problem with saying that HTC is going to force Oculus hand is that the Vive Pro and the Vive Pro Eye is still consider out price for most of the customer base. Anything above $1,000 USD is a hard pill to swallow for the average VR user. Granted if you have anything already such as the lighthouse and just upgrading your device  you will save some money making it a bit easier to swallow the pill - but it's still a lot of cash to drop. Then there is the fact that most games will almost have to redo their games to support the eye tracking and with limited device pool - might come pretty slow. 

    In this case - what Oculus did was drop their price down even more. In this case - they will have massive numbers to support whatever feature they release next. If eye tracking cost too much to add - then you can pretty much say it's going to be a long wait before we see any eye tracking games for many years.

    As much as I want eye tracking - I also understand that it's a BIG step forward too. There are a number of things you need in place to make sure it goes smoothly as possible:

    1) An API that makes it easier to call all the functions that need to happen with the technology
    2) FOVRendering support - not just at the software level - but at the hardware level as well in the case of Multi-Res and Variable Focal Res
    3) Access to said focal information for the games/software to use
    4) Fall back functions in case something doesn't work
    5) Games/software willing to go back and update their software to support the new feature
    Etc

    It's well worth it if we do get it though. It opens soo many doors for both quality and performance let alone scale later in the future for when we get larger and larger display resolutions or more FOV. 

    With that said - I do hope Oculus does get eye tracking in their CV2. I honestly believe that eye tracking with FOVA Rendering is a make or break technology that's going to do wonders. Not releasing it sooner than later will cause problems not just at the hardware level - but really limit what customers you can support in the near future too as hardware prices for GPUs seems to be going to be high for the next year or two. More or less - the pressure to have eye tracking will not come from HTC - but rather from the market alone wanting more from VR without having to spend an arm and leg to support it.

    For example - if Vive Pro Eye was running at the same performance requirement that a Vive takes - with in next line up cards later this year - you would have access to almost triple the machines/users that the Vive OG started with in 2016. It would fix the performances issues that current Pimax has with their increase FOV/HMD allowing them to hit 90FPS stable. For Oculus - more reasonable increases in FOV and Res + eye tracking would open the door to just that many more users in terms of having to buy a new video card or sticking to the one they have now. while slowing bring the cost down on that search so it can then be refitted later for mobile in terms of Oculus Quest and GO.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 5,510 Power Poster
    Oculus will do exactly the same as they did with the Quest last year - have an initial reveal at F8 without that many details and then a full reveal at OC6 including the name and price. Then they'll release it in April/May 2020.

    And Respawn's game will be bundled free with every Oculus Harv (yes, they're naming it after me).
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 11
    snowdog said:
    Oculus will do exactly the same as they did with the Quest last year - have an initial reveal at F8 without that many details and then a full reveal at OC6 including the name and price. Then they'll release it in April/May 2020.

    And Respawn's game will be bundled free with every Oculus Harv (yes, they're naming it after me).
    With that said and going off the sooner than later - if we don't see any details by F8 for eye tracking - then we can pretty much scrap the idea that will be a feature we get for CV2 including variable focus and it'll just be a 1.5 upgrade. I mostly say that because the fact that software will need time to work on these features and as I said it's a big step so you will want to update everyone on new rules/ideas on using it the right way with your software community on getting it right for release. Finding the right balance is going to be totally up to the right method to the resources given back for the dev to use. Much like how RT is going to take time for devs to figure out the right balance for image quality vs performance levels + software methods to get the best bank for the buck of both.

    If that becomes true - I would worry just a bit in terms of some sells moving over to HTC and Pimax for the higher level hardware and feature support.
  • MAC_MAN86MAC_MAN86 Posts: 1,097
    Neo
    If the CV2 is to be as affordable then there would be no real market place to still build the CV1 due to 2nd Hand prices. It also still needs to fit in with the GO which has lenses better than that also. They should not compete head on with the Vive Pro and so yes I feel it is still too early to phase out CV1 and therefore it is that that is holding it back until 2020 when we can all move on. It likely won't be as good a fov as Pimax but will be an improvement in other ways regardless with in/out tracking I'd expect. Eye tracking is likely for gpu efficiency. Perhaps they could make it wireless also.
    What are the talks of any CV3?
  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 3,483 Valuable Player
    edited January 11
    snowdog said:
    Oculus will do exactly the same as they did with the Quest last year - have an initial reveal at F8 without that many details and then a full reveal at OC6 including the name and price. Then they'll release it in April/May 2020.

    And Respawn's game will be bundled free with every Oculus Harv (yes, they're naming it after me).
    Not meaning to be "that person" but did you not say not so long back it would be madness to wait till 2020 , just as daft as htcs decision to bring out a vive 1.5?. ;)
    The way things are going this time you may be right however my point is we really don't have a clue what oculus are up to imo esp now iribe has left.  I used to be in the late 2019 camp however sadly I fear I was wrong.
    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • ShocksOculusShocksOculus Posts: 139
    Art3mis
    edited January 11
    HTC doesn't care about the long term success of what they release as it's not up to HTC to integrate it into STEAMVR.  Eye tracking?  So what!  From HTC's perspective, devs have to implement those features, or gamers have to wait until eye tracking is integrated into SteamVR as a baseline. 

    Also, Oculus' Michael Abrash has been very open that "near 100% eye tracking that is accurate for all types of people" is not here yet.  What has HTC developed that negates this ?  Or are they just paper laucnhing eye tracking and again leaving the support up to the developers to integrate correctly (not working for all ppl? blame the devs, not htc /s...)

    Thus, wake me up when HTC has eye tracking near 100% for all types of people, and eye tracking is fully integrated into the STEAM/Oculus API/platform, thereby working automatically in games.  Because I know this is the route Oculus is going, seemless no hassle eye tracking that is automagic !
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  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 12
    Also, Oculus' Michael Abrash has been very open that "near 100% eye tracking that is accurate for all types of people" is not here yet.  What has HTC developed that negates this ?  Or are they just paper laucnhing eye tracking and again leaving the support up to the developers to integrate correctly (not working for all ppl? blame the devs, not htc /s...)
    The thing is you will never make it 100% for all people. Oculus went over this as well that there will need to just let some eye types go because there isn't going to be a workable solution for them. If you have a medical issues with your eyes - there isn't a way to know how to correct for that. That shouldn't be a problem either way as those people have other problems most likely than if VR is going to work for them and would account for less than .01 of all sells really. So long as it meets and works well for the other 99% it really doesn't matter to make a way that works for 100% of the people out there. 

    Now don't take this the wrong way - but asian people have a different shape of eye than most black and white people do. Someone over at media review that was asian was able to test the Vive Pro Eye and it seem to work for her already. If we just take those 3 type of humans alone - that covers almost 90% of the population already in terms of eye shape. The other 9% could have what most people define as asian eyes that could cause problems - but that be a small enough risk to market issue I wouldn't worry about. Like I said too - if you have medical reason for a misshapen eye - you can't hold a VR company accountable for that either. You can only do so much to match what most people have and work slowly for adjusting the other 10% when time comes. It's far too early in terms of Eye tracking release to worry about that when there are major other steps that need to happen.


  • MAC_MAN86MAC_MAN86 Posts: 1,097
    Neo
    Surely eye tracking only follows the pupil. Now if you got black/dark eyes then that hole maybe hard to pick out. In such a case they could use coloured Contact Lenses. It's the same handicap for glasses wearers anyways in choosing the extra prescription Oculus Lenses. It also only needs to follow your good eye (the one we focus with) so lazy eyes should not be an issue either. Let it role!
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 5,510 Power Poster
    snowdog said:
    Oculus will do exactly the same as they did with the Quest last year - have an initial reveal at F8 without that many details and then a full reveal at OC6 including the name and price. Then they'll release it in April/May 2020.

    And Respawn's game will be bundled free with every Oculus Harv (yes, they're naming it after me).
    Not meaning to be "that person" but did you not say not so long back it would be madness to wait till 2020 , just as daft as htcs decision to bring out a vive 1.5?. ;)
    The way things are going this time you may be right however my point is we really don't have a clue what oculus are up to imo esp now iribe has left.  I used to be in the late 2019 camp however sadly I fear I was wrong.

    Yup, I did indeed say that. And if it were madness to wait until 2020 then it's completely seven shades of pure LUNACY for them to wait another 2 years and release the CV2 in 2022.

    There's still always a chance that they'll release it this year of course, but I personally won't be holding my breath for it lol
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 12
    MAC_MAN86 said:
    Surely eye tracking only follows the pupil. Now if you got black/dark eyes then that hole maybe hard to pick out. In such a case they could use coloured Contact Lenses. It's the same handicap for glasses wearers anyways in choosing the extra prescription Oculus Lenses. It also only needs to follow your good eye (the one we focus with) so lazy eyes should not be an issue either. Let it role!
    That's a medical problem to have your whole eye be in a black/super dark. That accounts for less than .1% of the population in the world and you wouldn't want a screen two inches from your eyes as well considering they have to wear shades anytime they go out. 

    The next/closest color is brown and even then - it's pretty easy to tell where the pupil is in terms of inferred. The only abnormality that is shared across all humans is the shape of the eye. Not all eyes are round but oval shape. It's one of the main reasons why people need glasses.

    Glasses are the only real issue when it comes to eye tracking as the extra lens could bend its light around causing some problems.

    As far as the other rare eye colors - they actually make the pupils stand out more in terms of blue, green, silver, etc.

    Honestly - as we get closer to 2020 - saying you haven't release because some eyes are different is a poor reason not to have it already. All you really need to do is cover is 90% of the eyes out there and that will be good enough for now as it'll take time to even get the other half of eye tracking in place. The longer the wait for it - the longer it'll take for software as well + the longer the wait for new advances. 
  • MAC_MAN86MAC_MAN86 Posts: 1,097
    Neo
    So they should be sending out Dev Kits in advance again of new tech.
  • edmgedmg Posts: 1,084
    Wintermute
    The question is whether eye-tracking works 99.999% for 90% of eyes, or whether it works 90% for 99.999% of eyes. The latter would be much worse than the former.
  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 13
    edmg said:
    The question is whether eye-tracking works 99.999% for 90% of eyes, or whether it works 90% for 99.999% of eyes. The latter would be much worse than the former.
    Correct - but even then that still be with in reason as there is a little bit of freedom for that last 10% that can be forgiven from the use of faster technology such as running at 120 frames vs 90 frames. Granted - that isn't the best case - but maybe good enough to continue. I mean look at the rift controllers - it doesn't actually work 100% of the time - more like 80% of the time. Yet, they are still consider good enough for current customer needs and in some cases even better than what is currently out there on the market. Hell long as it doesn't affect game play - most glitches go unnoticed for a long time.

    Basically - trying to hit 100% on either side is a bit pointless when we just need to hit "Good enough" value for it to work. From there - it can be improved upon later or over time while giving software time to build up and make use of the new hardware that then opens the door to a lot more resources in the future for both scale and features. 
  • SkScotcheggSkScotchegg Posts: 689
    Neo
    Mradr said:
    So long as it meets and works well for the other 99% it really doesn't matter to make a way that works for 100% of the people out there. 

    So harsh! lol

    BTW, I was just thinking about my cousin who has bad eyes and was born that way, he enjoys VR and he tried Rift and PSVR. Surely if they release eye tracking they can just offer you a setup/calibration at the start of each game or when your first setup the HMD? Surely that would be easy to do.

    So just because my cousins eye pupils are slightly off center or facing slightly towards the left, surely this can be accounted for with calibration software. That way we can cater for all customers and all people with eye problems.

    Just like Battlefield games where in the options menu it has lots of options for colorblind people. I don't think this would be hard to do.
  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    Mradr said:
    So long as it meets and works well for the other 99% it really doesn't matter to make a way that works for 100% of the people out there. 

    So harsh! lol

    BTW, I was just thinking about my cousin who has bad eyes and was born that way, he enjoys VR and he tried Rift and PSVR. Surely if they release eye tracking they can just offer you a setup/calibration at the start of each game or when your first setup the HMD? Surely that would be easy to do.

    So just because my cousins eye pupils are slightly off center or facing slightly towards the left, surely this can be accounted for with calibration software. That way we can cater for all customers and all people with eye problems.

    Just like Battlefield games where in the options menu it has lots of options for colorblind people. I don't think this would be hard to do.
    Honestly - that will fall into the 99% or even the 90% title. There are some rare and common eye problems that can really mess you up to the point that VR will not even work for you anyways. So long as your eyes meet and match most of what is out there - you will fall into that 90% title anyways. In this case - it sounds like your cousin would be just fine from a software correction over time than something they need to hit right off the bat for as i said in other post. 

    I don't think that is harsh - it's just the truth. If your friend has really bad eyes and suffers from a pupil medial issue - I don't think they should be in VR period. That screen is too high in brightness alone that is only going to damage them more and as a result be a really high risk health problem for them. If not - then not a big worry for them in this case - but there are some challenges  you can't except though and like I said - you can't hold them to it if you have something wrong with your eyes. That isn't hash like I said - that is just the truth in the matter. Over time maybe something can come along and fix some of that with software updates and corrections - but to expect that to happen with V1 just seems far fetch. 
  • ShocksOculusShocksOculus Posts: 139
    Art3mis
    edited January 14
    Mradr said:
    edmg said:
    The question is whether eye-tracking works 99.999% for 90% of eyes, or whether it works 90% for 99.999% of eyes. The latter would be much worse than the former.
    Correct - but even then that still be with in reason as there is a little bit of freedom for that last 10% that can be forgiven from the use of faster technology such as running at 120 frames vs 90 frames. Granted - that isn't the best case - but maybe good enough to continue. I mean look at the rift controllers - it doesn't actually work 100% of the time - more like 80% of the time. Yet, they are still consider good enough for current customer needs and in some cases even better than what is currently out there on the market. Hell long as it doesn't affect game play - most glitches go unnoticed for a long time.

    Basically - trying to hit 100% on either side is a bit pointless when we just need to hit "Good enough" value for it to work. From there - it can be improved upon later or over time while giving software time to build up and make use of the new hardware that then opens the door to a lot more resources in the future for both scale and features. 
    90% success rate is not a consumer product; that's a Developers Kit product.  You want consumer success, you need near 100% success rate (rate of failure <1:100).  Oculus as a major company (no longer a kickstarter) probably will not send out developer kits outside of a few chosen companies.  If my Rift only worked 90% of the time I'd be pissed.

    Here's a metric to strive for - SONY states PS4 failure rates less than <1%. https://kotaku.com/ps4-failure-rate-is-less-than-1-sony-says-1467673544

    And where do you get/assume Touch only works 80% of the time?

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  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 14
    90% success rate is not a consumer product; that's a Developers Kit product.  You want consumer success, you need near 100% success rate (rate of failure <1:100).  Oculus as a major company (no longer a kickstarter) probably will not send out developer kits outside of a few chosen companies.  If my Rift only worked 90% of the time I'd be pissed.

    Here's a metric to strive for - SONY states PS4 failure rates less than <1%. https://kotaku.com/ps4-failure-rate-is-less-than-1-sony-says-1467673544

    And where do you get/assume Touch only works 80% of the time?

    Sure, I get 80% of the time from different factors:

    1) Touch does lose tracking off and on when there are objects in the way of the sensors
    2) Random - the software will glitch and disposition your hands
    3) There is a little drift over time - granted the software will recover before you notice - but it can be less than a CM
    4) More cameras for higher position tracking - 2 is not enough for what people usually want to do in VR while 3 - covers most play areas but still some blind spots in some positions - 4 being nearly perfect but lots more cost than 2 and 3 for that coverage area.
    5) The controllers themselves can get into positions where they can't be track

    Yet - they still work well enough no one really notices very often. Hitting 100% tracking rate is pointless when you just need to cover 90% of all the actions that are going to happen in VR. 

    I think you are misunderstand - we're not talking about a device failure rate here - but the tracking rate. Failure rates you do want pretty low. On the other hand - Sony also states what version it is at - 4 - meaning it took them 4 generations to really hit that rate level. In terms of VR - yes it'll be generation 2 of the screens and lens, but 1st generation of eye tracking. With that said - it kind of removes the disposition that its a developers kit or a customer product because there isn't anything to compare it to yet.
  • SkScotcheggSkScotchegg Posts: 689
    Neo
    edited January 15
    Mradr said:
    Mradr said:
    So long as it meets and works well for the other 99% it really doesn't matter to make a way that works for 100% of the people out there. 

    So harsh! lol

    BTW, I was just thinking about my cousin who has bad eyes and was born that way, he enjoys VR and he tried Rift and PSVR. Surely if they release eye tracking they can just offer you a setup/calibration at the start of each game or when your first setup the HMD? Surely that would be easy to do.

    So just because my cousins eye pupils are slightly off center or facing slightly towards the left, surely this can be accounted for with calibration software. That way we can cater for all customers and all people with eye problems.

    Just like Battlefield games where in the options menu it has lots of options for colorblind people. I don't think this would be hard to do.
    Honestly - that will fall into the 99% or even the 90% title. There are some rare and common eye problems that can really mess you up to the point that VR will not even work for you anyways. So long as your eyes meet and match most of what is out there - you will fall into that 90% title anyways. In this case - it sounds like your cousin would be just fine from a software correction over time than something they need to hit right off the bat for as i said in other post. 

    I don't think that is harsh - it's just the truth. If your friend has really bad eyes and suffers from a pupil medial issue - I don't think they should be in VR period. That screen is too high in brightness alone that is only going to damage them more and as a result be a really high risk health problem for them. If not - then not a big worry for them in this case - but there are some challenges  you can't except though and like I said - you can't hold them to it if you have something wrong with your eyes. That isn't hash like I said - that is just the truth in the matter. Over time maybe something can come along and fix some of that with software updates and corrections - but to expect that to happen with V1 just seems far fetch. 
    I was joking mate, I'm not fussed! haha

    I just thought the way you put it was quite blunt and made me laugh! :)

    Regarding people with disabilities though,(in this case eye problems) lots of people with eye problems still enjoy using VR and I wouldn't underestimate the amount of people that play games in general with various different eye issues. This is a big part of the gaming market and I do believe companies take this into consideration as all customers should be treated the same and also it's all profit at the end of the day.

    Regarding my cousin, he plays counter-strike on PC and occasionally plays PSVR and Rift and his eyes need laser treatment every 6 years or so but doesn't have any issues other then that. He even goes and watches 3D movies with me at the cinemas. He's 23 years old and lives a normal life despite his eye condition.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 5,510 Power Poster
    I'm a bit worried about my eyesight. Nowt to do with my diabetes, I'm watching WAY too many...ermmmm...3D films :o :D :D :D
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 4,103 Valuable Player
    edited January 16

    Regarding the failure rates, I think there 2 different types of failure, one is the failure of the unit after initially functioning properly, this is what would be described as the Mean Time Before Failure figure that industry tends to use, and isn't rally a percentage but rather the average time it takes a unit to fail. The other type of failure is the one where it doesn't function for a particular user which I think has a different requirement level and could well be greater than 1 % for emerging tech like eye tracking. It's a similar type of failure as the headset not running on a particular PC that the user has (after getting a pass on the compatibility tool), but in this case there's no way to release a compatibility tool prior to someone buying it. We'll see how well the Vive eye tracking works after release... it may be super reliable for almost everyone.

    Regarding release date, I don't think what HTC does has too much of an effect on Oculus' plans, I think Oculus have a set roadmap and stick to it, with variations to that roadmap resulting from progress of individual technologies that crop up along the way. They have the option of reducing price to maintain competitive sales against the incremental improvements that we're seeing with the Vive and it looks like that's what's happening at the moment.

    I'm sticking with late 2019 for CV2 release but at this stage it could equally be a late 2019 announcement with release Q1 2020.

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  • MradrMradr Posts: 2,739 Valuable Player
    edited January 16
    I am just watching what HTC is up to with their software development when it comes to eye tracking. If it's not too hard to add and it works mostly for everyone - I actually have some money saved up for it + 20s card. To me - it be well worth the jump to if they can come out and worth with their software teams to get games and software out for it. On the other hand - I fear kind of that Oculus is going to play it safe and just release a model without eye tracking and instead focus on price to upgrade performance instead of big jumps. I only say that because of the rumor we heard a while back.

    Honestly - I wouldn't blame them really if they didnt from a business standpoint. So far the market has shown that keeping cost low is the way to get more users in. Offering a decent FOV and Res bump for a little higher price than the CV1 would be the best bet to still allow upgrades while proving the next jump.

    I think it all comes down to what Oculus shows off sooner than later and what HTC can come up with with their eye tracking. Granted I am talking 6 months out here at best. I mean DLSS was to be quickly taken up by everyone - but so far only really one game supports it and it was a title that NV had to pay a little to get it in there from what others are saying.
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