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The VR Predictions Thread of 2019

ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,298 Valuable Player
The first predictions thread was quite fun! There were few who got it right, and plenty of us (including myself) who got a whole bunch of stuff wrong. But it was quite entertaining watching the year unfold and witnessing each prediction either come to fruition or fall flat on its face.

Now time to move on to 2019. Here are my predictions:
  • Oculus Quest will receive a VR gadget of the year award.
  • Technical details of Rift-S will finally be revealed, and full 360 hand-tracking will be supported.
  • Rift-S will be backwards compatible with the existing Rift CV1 Oculus sensors.
  • Location-based Entertainment will finally gain mainstream attention, however, it will be Home-based VR titles that make it appealing (e.g. Beat Saber).
  • Despite growing appeal, Location-based Entertainment businesses will continue to struggle financially.
I'm tempted to add a prediction where Facebook and Oculus will be responsible for helping LBE avoid financial distress, but my gut tells me that this won't happen until the year 2020 when Oculus Studios is able with the creation of custom VR Arcade software experiences (which is sorely needed in the LBE Industry).

My LBE predictions are based on article provide unbiased factual insight, such as this:
Many who rushed to jump on the VR bandwagon and invested heavily in opening VR arcades with the debut of consumer headsets in 2016 have since gone out of business. Some industry insiders, however, remain enthusiastic about Location-Based VR Entertainment for VR and see the market as entering a more sustainable phase.

Overall, I feel that 2019 will be a strong year for Oculus, both with the release of Quest and the announcement of Rift-S. Not to mention all the custom VR Software that they have in store for us. Coming out of my first-hand experience with PAX South, I anticipate a heft amount of hours spent in VR this year!
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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,243 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    Zenbane said:
    ...Now time to move on to 2019. Here are my predictions:
    • Oculus Quest will receive a VR gadget of the year award.
    • Technical details of Rift-S will finally be revealed, and full 360 hand-tracking will be supported.
    • Rift-S will be backwards compatible with the existing Rift CV1 Oculus sensors.
    • Location-based Entertainment will finally gain mainstream attention, however, it will be Home-based VR titles that make it appealing (e.g. Beat Saber).
    • Despite growing appeal, Location-based Entertainment businesses will continue to struggle financially.
    ...
    Overall, I feel that 2019 will be a strong year for Oculus, both with the release of Quest and the announcement of Rift-S. Not to mention all the custom VR Software that they have in store for us. Coming out of my first-hand experience with PAX South, I anticipate a heft amount of hours spent in VR this year!
    Interesting prediction... I believe that the Rift S Touch controllers will be theoretically compatible with Constellation sensors, given that they likely use the same IR LEDs. Whether they will write the software to merge Constellation data with the Insight tracking for more robust positional integrity, that's the million dollar question. It would certainly eliminate any concerns for people looking to upgrade from CV1.
    Since we're starting a new year's topic, I'll copy my predictions over from the old thread:
    For 2019, I predict:

    1. Quest will sell like hotcakes and be a big success. 
    2. People will moan about Oculus abandoning PCVR. 
    3. Rift S will be announced later in the year with higher res, better lenses, and Insight tracking at a very affordable price point ($300?). 
    4. People will moan about Oculus abandoning Constellation tracking. 
    5. Rift S will go on sale before year-end and will sell like hotcakes.
    6. People will moan about the lack of a major leap forward with new tech. 
    7. FB/Oculus will yet again show off some fancy new tech at their conferences. 
    8. People will moan about no solid info or release date for CV2.

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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,104 Valuable Player
    1) The Quest will release after the Zuckerberg keynote at F8

    2) F8 will also show a preview of the Rift S the same way they did with the Quest last year.

    3) The Rift S will have a 140 degree FOV and built-in fixed foveated rendering done at the SDK level which means developers won't need to implement it themselves with whatever engine they're using. This will also mean that all Rift games currently released will also use the feature.

    4) A full reveal of the Rift S will be done at OC6, price $399 and release date in November.

    5) The Rift will get a price cut to $299.

    6) I'm going to win over £100m on the Euromillions and will fund the release of Resident Evil 7.

    7) I STILL won't have finished developing my game.

    8) @vannagirl will succeed in FINALLY running me over.

    9) Respawn's new game will be a sci-fi shooter and will be a free launch title for the Rift S

    10) Developers will get a free Quest if they're accepted into the Oculus Start programme.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,298 Valuable Player
    Interesting on the prediction that Rift-S will be the same cost as Quest. It's possible, but I feel that the exact same price is not a likely outcome. I would say at least $450 for Rift-S!
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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,104 Valuable Player
    My reasoning is that it's not going to have the Snapdragon and RAM inside that the Quest has. It might even have the exact same displays and lenses if it doesn't have a FOV increase. If they've got the price of the Quest down to $399 I can't see why the Rift S will be more expensive.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,243 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    snowdog said:
    1) The Quest will release after the Zuckerberg keynote at F8

    2) F8 will also show a preview of the Rift S the same way they did with the Quest last year.

    3) The Rift S will have a 140 degree FOV and built-in fixed foveated rendering done at the SDK level which means developers won't need to implement it themselves with whatever engine they're using. This will also mean that all Rift games currently released will also use the feature.

    4) A full reveal of the Rift S will be done at OC6, price $399 and release date in November.

    5) The Rift will get a price cut to $299.

    6) I'm going to win over £100m on the Euromillions and will fund the release of Resident Evil 7.

    7) I STILL won't have finished developing my game.

    8) @vannagirl will succeed in FINALLY running me over.

    9) Respawn's new game will be a sci-fi shooter and will be a free launch title for the Rift S

    10) Developers will get a free Quest if they're accepted into the Oculus Start programme.

    I don't think Rift S will get the high FOV screens that were hinted at with last year's Half Dome reveal, I suspect those higher-end feature will be saved for the proper CV2.

    snowdog said:
    My reasoning is that it's not going to have the Snapdragon and RAM inside that the Quest has. It might even have the exact same displays and lenses if it doesn't have a FOV increase. If they've got the price of the Quest down to $399 I can't see why the Rift S will be more expensive.

    I agree, Rift S is basically a Quest without the processor, and also without the battery. I think it should be $100 cheaper than quest, but requires a PC with the same min spec as Rift CV1. Being cheaper than the current Rift CV1 helps cement Rift S as the new standard PCVR product.

    Edit:They could keep the onboard compute from Quest to process the tracking data, which would lessen the PC (CPU) requirement, but would drive the cost up a bit--if they did that, I'd estimate a $350 price point.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,298 Valuable Player
    Hmm, what about Eye Tracking? Anyone think that Rift-S will have it??
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  • Techy111Techy111 Posts: 5,307 Volunteer Moderator
    Zenbane said:
    Hmm, what about Eye Tracking? Anyone think that Rift-S will have it??
    Dunno but I'll keep an eye out... .. ;)

    Don't give a hoot what it's got under the hood but please oh please better resolution !!!
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  • MradrMradr Posts: 3,211 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    Techy111 said:
    Zenbane said:
    Hmm, what about Eye Tracking? Anyone think that Rift-S will have it??
    Dunno but I'll keep an eye out... .. ;)

    Don't give a hoot what it's got under the hood but please oh please better resolution !!!
    At best though it wont be any better than what the Vive Pro has, so Rift S will in between current headsets and the Vive Pro resolution. At least without eye tracking anyways and with the low price point. High resolution doesn't go with a low price headset xD Maybe 2k? Less? 1.5k? At that price point though - I would think it be using the same screens design as GO meaning fast switch LCD instead of OLED as well. This way it does get a boost in resolution while staying on the cheaper side of things. 

    1. Quest will sell triple the device count than CV1 did its full life span (meaning mom and pop will buy it for little jim and sally)
    2. Rift S tracking system will not be 100% backwards compatible with the old tracking system. The headset will lose its ability to be track with the old system leaving the controllers only to be track after an update is release further down the line.
    3. Rift S will be a 1.5 upgrade. It will feature better lenses from the GO or slightly improve version of those, a bump in resolution using fast switch LCD screens matching or less than the Vive Pro, Maybe a bump in FOV from 100 to 120-140, using AI they will have figure out how to do fix FOV + focal point viewing, insideout tracking with maybe another one or two cameras on the side or back to cover more area of tracking.
    4. Constellation tracking will slowly die off as the number of people stop reporting tracking issues and hardware problems as they upgrade to Rift S.
    5. People that want to keep the old tracking system will slowly give in then switch sides in how inside out tracking will be better than the old tracking system.

  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,104 Valuable Player
    Zenbane said:
    Hmm, what about Eye Tracking? Anyone think that Rift-S will have it??

    Nope, bit too early, that's why I reckon we'll see fixed foveated rendering instead.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,298 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    Mradr said:
    At best though it wont be any better than what the Vive Pro has
    So you predict that the Vive Pro will have better visuals than the new Rift-S? Not surprised to hear you say that, but definitely looking forward to holding you to that prediction!
    B)

    The rest of your predictions are equally fun:
    1. Quest will sell triple the device count than CV1 did its full life span (meaning mom and pop will buy it for little jim and sally)
    2. Rift S tracking system will not be 100% backwards compatible with the old tracking system. The headset will lose its ability to be track with the old system leaving the controllers only to be track after an update is release further down the line.
    3. Rift S will be a 1.5 upgrade. It will feature better lenses from the GO or slightly improve version of those, a bump in resolution using fast switch LCD screens matching or less than the Vive Pro, Maybe a bump in FOV from 100 to 120-140, using AI they will have figure out how to do fix FOV + focal point viewing, insideout tracking with maybe another one or two cameras on the side or back to cover more area of tracking.
    4. Constellation tracking will slowly die off as the number of people stop reporting tracking issues and hardware problems as they upgrade to Rift S.
    5. People that want to keep the old tracking system will slowly give in then switch sides in how inside out tracking will be better than the old tracking system.

    360 hand-tracking is definitely all the rage at the start of 2019. FYI, I sent a tweet to Mr. Rubin asking for clarification. But doubtful that we'll get an official response...

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  • MradrMradr Posts: 3,211 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    Zenbane said:
    Mradr said:
    At best though it wont be any better than what the Vive Pro has
    So you predict that the Vive Pro will have better visuals than the new Rift-S? Not surprised to hear you say that, but definitely looking forward to holding you to that prediction!
    I base that prediction off wanting to keep price low, resolution hardware demand low, and wanting to expand their headsets out while they push back the CV2. Possible they could bump more if they increase to something like 599 or 699, but over all they will either want to keep between or no higher than Vive Pro. Then you have the fact if they do increase FOV - it's going to spread the pixel over degree out more - there for - in doing so they will shrink back down meaning over all visually - you get increase field of view - but the quality of the over all visual will not be as good.

    Without eye tracking + FOVA + Focal Point - it'll be hard to do something like 4k by 4k plus demand 20s NV cards though there are some tricks I am sure they could make work without the need for a 20s card. It just depends on if they want to do the work around or just wait/force a hardware dependent requirement. Most likely they will just use what they do save to help lower the hardware requirement to get into VR. This frees up other resources for games to use later on instead.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,104 Valuable Player
    It'll look better than the Vive Pro because it'll have far superior lenses. Releasing the Vive Pro with the same lenses that the Vive has was a TERRIBLE decision.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,298 Valuable Player
    Mradr said:
    I base that prediction off wanting to keep price low, resolution hardware demand low, and wanting to expand their headsets out while they push back the CV2. Possible they could bump more if they increase to something like 599 or 699, but over all they will either want to keep between or no higher than Vive Pro. Then you have the fact if they do increase FOV - it's going to spread the pixel over degree out more - there for - in doing so they will shrink back down meaning over all visually - you get increase field of view - but the quality of the over all visual will not be as good.

    Without eye tracking + FOVA + Focal Point - it'll be hard to do something like 4k by 4k plus demand 20s NV cards though there are some tricks I am sure they could make work without the need for a 20s card. It just depends on if they want to do the work around or just wait/force a hardware dependent requirement. Most likely they will just use what they do save to help lower the hardware requirement to get into VR. This frees up other resources for games to use later on instead.

    Fair points but keep in mind that the current Vive Pro still contains a healthy dose of SDE, especially when compared to something like the Odyssey+. So I would put my money on the Rift-S being more on par with Odyssey+ as opposed to resting alongside the Vive Pro. Especially considering that the Oculus GO lenses are so damn good.
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  • MradrMradr Posts: 3,211 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    Zenbane said:

    Fair points but keep in mind that the current Vive Pro still contains a healthy dose of SDE, especially when compared to something like the Odyssey+. So I would put my money on the Rift-S being more on par with Odyssey+ as opposed to resting alongside the Vive Pro. Especially considering that the Oculus GO lenses are so damn good.
    Yea, maybe I should be more clear - I am just referring to the pixel to pixel/resolution. How the over all image looks is a different story that will be hard to discuss because everyone will see something different much like it was for the Vive vs CV1. With that said - from a pur math point of view - resolution alone wont be much higher than what the Vive Pro offers right now is what I mean. Lenses will improve how it looks from there as far as SDE, chroma, the warping effect, etc. Though do keep in mind - a lens can only do so much - at some point if there isn't enough pixel information - then there just isn't enough pixel information for the lense to do anything with it. SDE isn't actually link to resolution - but pixels are used to fill in gaps. 
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