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The VR Predictions Thread of 2021

ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 16,700 Valuable Player
edited October 14 in General
It's been awhile since we had one of these, and the predictions might be smaller going forward considering that the latest rumors involve Quest being... the one HMD to Rule them all.

So here are my predictions for VR in 2021
  • All current Oculus Exclusives will wrap up, and any future Exclusives will be specific to Quest. No more PCVR Exclusives will be made outside of any current projects.
  • Horizons will launch, but its first year will be lackluster. Horizons won't begin to truly shine until 2022.
  • Most of the Oculus VR spotlight will be around Quest + Link, with a bigger emphasis on using Quest for PCVR as opposed to purchasing Quest titles natively.
  • SteamVR will grow in popularity over Oculus Home for PCVR. Quest users will most likely associate Steam with "PCVR" as synonymous, since it would be confusing for Quest users to install 2 different "Oculus Homes" (one on Quest, one on PC).
  • By December 2021, the demand for a better PCVR headset will increase, since Quest 2 users will be pushing its Link abilities to the limit.
  • With PCVR demands increasing, Valve and HP will hit record high numbers in their PCVR HMDs.
  • Oculus will discontinue the Rift-S by March 2021, but at the next Facebook Conference in September 2021, Oculus will announce a new PCVR headset.
Okay, that last prediction is me "going down with the ship" when it comes to Oculus PCVR. Yet I feel that the reason Facebook is discontinuing with the Rift is due to the fact that the market has dictated this as the best course of action; as a natural result of consumer purchasing trends.

However, the success of Quest and Link may very well increase the PCVR demand beyond what Quest is capable of accomplishing. This could cause a market shift away from stand-alone and more towards dedicated PCVR. And if that does happen... then Rift may return from the dead!

Any other takers and prediction makers? ;)
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Comments

  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 6,822 Valuable Player
    edited October 14
    Could be - also GearVR seemed like a strong market - at least some apps have far more ratings than any Rift app including Beat Saber. In some perspective I see the Quest popularity connected with Oculus dissolving GearVR and transforming it into Quest 1-2 (Facebook/Oculus no longer has to share with Samsung, probably meaning greatly increased profits). As we all know, Quest 1 has same gpu as Samsung S8, and with the higher res and battery limitations XR2 will not allow for untethered VR experiences much beyond Quest 1 - but you'll get the higher res, and also more ram (actually a lot more ram) - maybe hope for better textures. 

    Quest 2 will have absolutely no chance compared to the incredible raw power of the new gpu generations - like AMD's Big Navi and Nvidia's Series 30. Even Carmack noted the importance of Quest Link to dip into the power of the 3090. It's probably safe to say that PCVR - if dipping into the new gpu generations - can provide experiences way beyond what we've seen so far and increase popularity of PCVR.  

    For most users though, and kids who can't afford a VR-capable pc, Quest 2 with no link will probably be enough. In that perspective Quest 2 may not really provide more competition against PCVR than GearVR did, but Quest 2 will provide much better mobile VR experience. Also, if GearVR was still thriving and widely available, it would have been something very different today due to higher phone res and better phone processors - and such modern GearVR probably would not be far from the processing powers of Quest 2.  

    Having a hmd like Quest 2 that can dip into both the old GearVR and PCVR market potentials is great thinking - especially if Facebook through 90 Hz can support the full physical res of the Quest 2 in PCVR. 
    Intel i7 7700K (4.5 GHz); MSI GeForce GTX 1080 8GB Gaming X (oc 2100 MHz gpu boost, 11 GHz mem speed); 16GB Corsair Vengeance LPX DDR4 3200 MHz; MSI Z270I Gaming Pro Carbon AC (VR-Ready) mainboard; Samsung 960 Evo M.2 SSD + Toshiba P300 HD; Windows 10 OS; Valve Index and Oculus Rift CV1 - the latter nearly always using super sampling 2.0. 

    "Ask not what VR can do for you – ask what you can do for VR"
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,822 Valuable Player
    edited October 14
    >"...So here are my predictions for VR in 2021"

    - Facebook announce Mixed Reality system incorporating Quest 2 elements
    - Facebook Reality Labs is restructured
    - Older Oculus hardware users will have difficulty merging accounts or apps
    - New Quest 2 created for Enterprise (see-thru)
    - At Facebook Connect 2021 WIFI-Link revealed
    - ReVive runs into difficulties working on Quest 2
    - Software update improves performance of Quest 2
    - Problems found by some users after they merge accounts
    - Pico Neo 3 is released with higher performance than Quest 2
    - Samsung View is released with higher performance than Quest 2
    - Sony reveal PSVR2, but is long way from release in 2021 (system is hybrid)
    - HTC restructures VR division and sacks key executives
    - HP Reverb G2 is bundled with new Valve VR software platform
    - Apple announces MR headset plans

    These seem the obvious possibilities in the next few months into 2021.


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  • hoppingbunny123hoppingbunny123 Posts: 970
    Neo
    no news from oculus about quest 3 till 2024 about quest 3. index 2 announced this year or next year.

    in 2 years time nvidia will release 4000 series gtx, 3090 power at 3070 prices, 4 k games will be common in 2023.

    the tik is new amd cpu socket and the tok is nvidia series videocards, oculus moves at nvidia series speed the tok.
  • TomCgcmfcTomCgcmfc Posts: 2,828 Valuable Player
    In 2021, new Vive management hires more ex-Oculus VR engineers and finally improves the OG Cosmos inside-out tracking to Rift S standards.  After this (maybe 2022) Vive offers a standalone faceplate module for the Cosmos headset that is compatible with current OG Cosmos controllers (which are very Oculus touch-like).

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  • inovatorinovator Posts: 2,844 Valuable Player
    Rave reviews if the awesomeness and clarity of the virtual desktop wirless solution that is said to be quite a bit better than the rift s at 90hz, makes me believe that an  official oculus wireless solution will be announced sooner rather than later.
  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 6,822 Valuable Player
    Seeing what kind of magic Valve did with Alyx, making high ss possible using the most amazing graphics in solid 90 fps with the Index and an aging GTX 1080, I've said it before - we do not need more hmds, we need more Alyx class content!

    And we need devs to make more games where you need to use the full potential of Touch. Thus needing to grab stuff and separately using your thumb or index finger. Maybe open doors using thumb prints? Can't be that hard to fully support - WMR users can play something less advanced ;)
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    "Ask not what VR can do for you – ask what you can do for VR"
  • JohnnyDioxinJohnnyDioxin Posts: 2,714 Valuable Player
    2021: I'll spend another bloody fortune on VR software and accessories!

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  • inovatorinovator Posts: 2,844 Valuable Player
    2021: I'll spend another bloody fortune on VR software and accessories!
    It's a worthwhile cause.
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 8,001 Valuable Player
    2021 Predictions:

    Nobody will release a standalone headset capable of competing with the Quest 2.

    The Quest 2 manages to sell more headsets than Sony and the PSVR 1 (5m+ in total).

    PSVR 2 is released by Sony and THIS time they're going to have bloody analog sticks on their controllers. 😲

    Microsoft join the VR party and bring VR headset support to the NextBox.

    Frontier give Odyssey VR support.

    EA release DLC for Star Wars Squadrons.

    Lone Echo 2 is released and is AWESOME.

    Elder Scrolls 6 is released with VR support and will be a 6 month timed exclusive for the NextBox and NextBox VR.

    People will STILL be moaning about needing to register a Facebook account with Oculus headsets.

    Horizons will be released and be AWESOME.

    I'll get my Yaw VR motion simulator and it will be AMAZEBALLS 😎

    The Rift 2 will be announced at Facebook Connect 2021 featuring the Half Dome prototype features, due for release in 2022.

    Remember, the Snowdog is right 99% of the time. 😎😁😎
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  • hoppingbunny123hoppingbunny123 Posts: 970
    Neo
    edited October 18
    If oculus releases a headset every year they would gain recognition.

    Since quest 2 is a fire hazard I won't buy 1 so I wait some more for a new oculus vr  maybe next year.

    https://forums.oculusvr.com/community/discussion/comment/770503/#Comment_770503
  • inovatorinovator Posts: 2,844 Valuable Player
    If oculus releases a headset every year they would gain recognition.

    Since quest 2 is a fire hazard I won't buy 1 so I wait some more for a new oculus vr  maybe next year.

    https://forums.oculusvr.com/community/discussion/comment/770503/#Comment_770503
    I've been enjoying this years fire hazard. 
  • MorgrumMorgrum Posts: 1,810 Valuable Player
    edited October 18
    At this Rate 2020 will kill us all by Christmas.
    So sorry no 2021.
    See all you suckers in HELL!!

    WAAAGH!
  • JohnnyDioxinJohnnyDioxin Posts: 2,714 Valuable Player
    That's okay - I've been getting in my practise with In Death! :p

    i5 9600k @4.5GHz; 16GB DDR4 3200; 6xSSD; RTX2080ti; Gigabyte Z390D Mobo
    Rift CV1; Index; Quest; Quest 2
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