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Industry Analyst Says Iribe wasted his dough

cleverusername
Explorer
http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/zclvhd/pach-attack--who-will-profit-the-most-from-next-gen- About 4 minutes in or so says Oculus is finished, has no real market and capital funding perhaps will not survive for the many years until they do. Again going along with what abrash said earlier, and also what kevin williams seemed to hint at. Perhaps this business cycle is NOT the one, it may take another cycle or 2. Cyberreality, I hope you are mindful of what happened with ONLIVE as posted before. I will say this though, Adam Sessler was a big banker/analyst in his former life, and in 2009 palmer luckey told me he was a nice guy, bright, a personal friend of palmers, and to see him out, so I did so at pax 2009. He gave such a destruction of stereo3D I will remember it til my dying day. Hilarious for me to see him years later do a 540.

If people will read the original thread with Palmer at MTBS3D, http://www.mtbs3d.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=120&t=4123 It seems Cyberreality is not so optimistic as he is now. I did tell Palmer I didn't think HMD was ready yet (as martinlandau) but Dome FOV gaming maybe a nearer solution. Kevin Williams did just say I would say that BattleTek' in a VWE capsule is one of the most compelling ever - far more than a HMD Well time will tell....

(PS Cyber, everything I have studied on divorce courts, hot babes like IRIBE is married to don't stay with guys who lose money and make bad bets, and don trump said he had to have 3 buses to bring in all of Ivanka's lawyers, LOL! And that was with a prenup, I wonder if Iribe got a prenup - maybe she bails while she still thinks she can get some cash from him - LOL!) Oculus will be torn up not from anything you or palmer do, or anything Iribe really wants. But a wife compelled by an unfair court system backed by a tyrannical government in divorce laws could destroy the dream - just something to think about!
mtbs3d.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4123 I am looking into that LEEP VR I lack practical 3d knowledge, I have found some good links, but I am not sure if they are the ones you were talking about. Would you mind direct linking me to them? :oops:
128 REPLIES 128

KBK
Protege
There is a thing called insertion into the market at exactly the right time. The Rift, and Oculus, are moving into the market and creating the market at exactly the right time.

One has to begin, and then develop and then OWN the market that they themselves created. In this situation the market and the creation of the hardware are happening at exactly the right time, with regard to the move that Oculus is making.

One thing I've done in the past 30+ years, is to watch how that works. How it's done and how it plays out. To the point that I started two different companies that have both done the same thing, to create and be the market as it comes into existence. Both done as business enterprises..and as experiments in this area of creationist endeavor.

This motion by Oculus and the people involved is as textbook an example as it gets, when it comes to prescience and positioning.

One will always find naysayers, but then again, if they had the vision, the prescience,and the will, and the capacity... they'd probably do so themselves. Any naysayers obviously can't see it and don't know how, and will forever remain in the naysayer do nothing category.

To be a force in a market, in the way that this particular technology requires a 'build' to come into being, the complexities involved...this shows that Oculus came into being at exactly the right time and in exactly the right way.

A market analyst is essentially a frustrated quickie screw job money monger, turned into a critic as they can't make money any other way. Potentially, the kind of personality that might ask 20 women a night to have sex and maybe get lucky with one.

Creationism is a whole different kettle of fish, with a different set of tasks, actions, paths, hoops to jump through and a different pay-off. A money monger thinks that if you can't double or 10x your money in 12-18 months, then it is a waste of time, a loosing proposition. To me, such people are a waste of life and space on this planet. Among the worst kind of people there are. I mean, 1000 years ago, they'd be brigands and coastal raiders.

Simply put, analysts almost never understand creationism, creation of a market. They know how to analyze after the floor and the space is created, they can spot opportunities to rape, pillage,and destroy (brigandage, piracy) and can report of when that is seeming to happen, but they don't generally every understand or know how to create a world from scratch.

The Rift is both opportunity and creation of the ground, the space, and the product, and is being inserted into a strong pull market, a market that is barely becoming aware that this new space even exists. That is the only way that this is ever going to happen. The haul across that space will be more arduous and drawn out, but the payoff and ownership of market share is much bigger and more potent, in this way.
Intelligence... is not inherent - it is a point in understanding. Q: When does a fire become self sustaining?

dhill
Honored Guest
I wonder how many Rifts need to be sold to keep the company going? I think the market for a while will not be people who want to play games with it for hours on end so much as people who really want to try it and show it off to their friends. It doesn't need deep games for now, but a bunch of really intriguing 15-minute experiences.

That's really not a bad thing, either. A lot of people just want to see what virtual reality is like. I know I did.

ReverendKyle
Honored Guest
I disagree with Pachter on EVERYTHING he said in that video. Not just about the Oculus Rift, but EVERYTHING.

For one thing, he's got grey hair and wears a tie to talk about gaming companies. His audience is obviously other grey haired men with ties, NOT developers or gamers. His comments about not needing further gen consoles or further development of screen technology is a perfect example of why his LIMITED views on the industry are, in my opinion, completely worthless. I take no stock (pun intended) in his words.

From the perspective of developers and gamers....

WE decide what we buy, and WE decide what games we play/write/love. 50K+ people were willing to send $300 to this company, with no definitive delivery date and barely any game support.

The HOPE of a new technology keeps this project alive, not the opinion of some industry "expert".
Have you listened to the Rev VR Podcast yet? Listen and subscribe through iTunes or through Stitcher http://www.reverendkyle.com

blackplastick
Protege
Pachter is a hack who is only considering "casual" gamers. He is only concerned with big publisher stocks, and big publishers ARE NOT the game industry.

"Oculus would have survived if it was done 4 years ago so it would have been in these next gen consoles" - He says this as if consoles are the be all end all of the gaming industry. It's funny though because he is inadvertently admitting consoles are adopting 4 year old technology and calling it "next gen".

"We don't need more than 60 FPS at 1080p" - This statement is laughable. Obviously he doesn't understand how framerates work in a 3D game engine.

"Assassin's Creed 3 will be a tough one to improve upon" - Is he joking? Assassins Creed 3 was a terrible game (unless you have never played PC games before)

Who cares about consolers? PC gamers exist in an entirely different world and market. Consoles are bad for the PC gaming industry because they tend to hold back technology for the rest of us. Thankfully we now have a big wave of PC only titles coming via kickstarter projects that won't be dependent on 10 year old technology.

Pachter is a great example of the biggest problem with the game industry right now. People like him think they understand the technology and philosophy of gaming, but they really don't. They are only concerned about profits, not innovation or fun. Their biggest problem is they are extremely focused on trends. Trends (by definition) are basically what gives us games that are clones of other games.

Personally I am just sick of games built around button mashing. 99% of the AAA games in the last 5-10 years are all solely based around forcing players to struggle with a new interface from game to game. Having to figure out which button to mash and what combination to use just isn't fun for me.

NegativeCamber
Honored Guest
"blackplastick" wrote:


"We don't need more than 60 FPS at 1080p" - This statement is laughable. Obviously he doesn't understand how framerates work in a 3D game engine.


To anyone who is a serious gamer, this statement is laughable, it's like Bill Gate's famous quote.

Also if that were the case, why are retina display's so popular?

cleverusername
Explorer
"KBK" wrote:
There is a thing called insertion into the market at exactly the right time. The Rift, and Oculus, are moving into the market and creating the market at exactly the right time.


First I saw carmack comment that if Palmer hadn't taken my idea I gave to him regarding howlett and made the HMD, that Carmack himself would have done it. Later on I saw Carmack say he didn't really have anything to do with Oculus and try to distance himself from the company, who knows why. Now its back the other way, anyways.... Geek Master has posted some info around that Abrash is claiming 2000hz display hardware before it is practical for joe six pack. Thats assuming we push things as fast as possible and we are looking at maybe 2 or 3 more business cycles before we get that, remember I already give IBM pain for shelving technologies that would help humanity so they can squeeze maximum profit potential. Perhaps these 2000hz displays could have already been here if not for various forces in our capitalist system and companies trying to milk current revenue off of existing products in the channel. Forces that work counter to the quickest progress able, certainly not cannibalizing themselves.

Abrash has told me on his blog (check the one why VR is not real to your brain - stanley tweedle security guard class 4) that 360 degree gaming relating to the barco sphere http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vu6MGvpnlCM is not practical, because there is no market for the developers. I try to expand his mind, the same problem SO MANY people are complaining about now or recently, how unity and other TOOLS were developed thinking about flat display surfaces and maybe only 60 degree FOV is going to be an issue AGAIN in the future if we only think of a 110 degree FOV device and develop tools, and communities and memes around that, it is shortsighted, and will be damaging. Abrash proves he is a slave to these same limiting forces, and maybe for good reason, but maybe not.


However from a capitalist profit seeking mindset, why do all you can as quickly as possible? Maybe better to have to re-invent the wheel all over again another business cycle or 2 out to have a whole new revenue stream. Some people here think these memes are OK, some view them as destructive. Case in point, Bill Gates came to IBM one day and said you guys are really phugging dumb, you can't pay programmers by how many lines of code they contribute. It sets up destructive incentives, you will have bloatware that can't be maintained because programmers for profit will be adding in all kinds of complexity and BS to increase thier paychecks, will not be designing for efficiency and maintainability. For a long time he kept trying to convince the brass at IBM to make this change, because he wanted to do good, through THEM. AT some point though he realized this was a futile effort, and instead of attacking the entrenched culture, he said YAH, that is a good idea, make your code payable by how many lines the programmers write, and BillG went off and did his own thing.

This leads me to another point, again I have documented here in several posts in various threads how Palmer never imagined what was coming, even Cyberreality has admitted several times how shocked he was what has transpired, but my old posts from years ago predict what was coming, when they didn't even believe it themselves. Q morpheus and Neo.


One has to begin, and then develop and then OWN the market that they themselves created. In this situation the market and the creation of the hardware are happening at exactly the right time, with regard to the move that Oculus is making.


President Obama says,

http://www.infowars.com/humor-you-didnt-build-that/

Again we get into all kinds of issues when you want to start talking about "ownership" Palmer admitted at the virtual insanity panel to carmack and abrash that it was MTBS3D forums and eric howlett that gave him the idea, he conveniently "FORGOT" to mention that it was martinlandau that delivered that meme to him perhaps on a silver platter? As jadorowsky says about who really OWNS stuff. Does Palmer think I should get some money for that? He changed the open source project to closed because he thought HE should get some money yah?

This motion by Oculus and the people involved is as textbook an example as it gets, when it comes to prescience and positioning.


Prescience? Again from my perspective, I saw people like Palmer and Cyber who didn't believe in themselves perhaps until Carmack showed up or Iribe but I believed way before then.

One will always find naysayers, but then again, if they had the vision, the prescience,and the will, and the capacity... they'd probably do so themselves. Any naysayers obviously can't see it and don't know how, and will forever remain in the naysayer do nothing category.


Am I a naysayer? The very guy that gave palmer his idea? The guy that rallied palmer and cyberreality with affirmative energy and action they themselves fought against, not believing how big or how fast things could expand? The guy that contributed heavily to the paul bourke information spread years ago at MTBS3D and other places which is still paying off dividends on the software side, who tried to expose the community here to omnity? Believe what you will, but even BillG tried hard to get the big boyz to do it first, and they wouldn't (like palmer originally thought years ago - someone else will do this on the big scale) A good scientist is his own worst critic no? Wants to go beyond the hype and get facts and truth. Naysayer do nothings, perhaps, however who wants a community of like minded echo chambers? Is that the path to disruptive innovation? They killed Socrates, he was just too annoying I suppose. (cyber's new rules on censorship will almost certainly get me banned at some point, it should have already from some people's perspective, why are they giving me leeway now that I don't think they would give the rest of you - is that fair to the community?)


To be a force in a market, in the way that this particular technology requires a 'build' to come into being, the complexities involved...this shows that Oculus came into being at exactly the right time and in exactly the right way.


Perhaps, but I think I have a much closer and better read on what happened in this history from the inside than you do, and I am looking at things from being a part of it from before the beginning.

screw job money monger, turned into a critic as they can't make money any other way. Potentially, the kind of personality that might ask 20 women a night to have sex and maybe get lucky with one.


Yes, pointing out sessler - LOL!, certainly we have sociopaths taking over critical government positions and captains of industry and capital masters. Some of these guys get what cyberreality talked about years ago, the teledildonic interface to do online cybersex and swear off human sex totally. Why be controlled by the whims of a woman when you can be free?

Creationism is a whole different kettle of fish, with a different set of tasks, actions, paths, hoops to jump through and a different pay-off. A money monger thinks that if you can't double or 10x your money in 12-18 months, then it is a waste of time, a loosing proposition. To me, such people are a waste of life and space on this planet. Among the worst kind of people there are. I mean, 1000 years ago, they'd be brigands and coastal raiders.


Yes, dan loeb and warren mosler both were very critical of our modern system in conversations I had with them, how most CEO's are only worried about beating the street by a penny in the next quarters earnings. Gerstner admitted as much to me personally at IBM. Mosler (17 years of positive market beating returns - lots of alpha?, perhaps the most successful global bond trader in history) going as far as saying the entire financial sector is more trouble than it is worth, consuming too many human minds, focusing on derivatives and abstractions. Brad Delong echoing the same memes injecting keynes and his "liquidity fetish" being the MOST DESTRUCTUVE force on the planet in the capitalist world at this point. How governments and companies could no longer fund or do long term planning, maybe requiring investments of over 50 years to see real fruit. Mosler viewing this from the perspective of how China is going to rot us out from within because our "system" is just too shortsighted. Our government and companies too focused on the here and now.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/meet-your-new-boss-buying-large-employers-will-enable-ch...

Ties in well to another meme point out here, http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/311967-2 where the scientist says the people on easter island didn't realize the palms that grew there took maybe several hundred years to replenish.

You bring up good Macro point KBK, in world of capital, where former sessler and this current analyst exist, where you have to see 10 times returns in 24-48 month cycles, how does anything long term get good funding?

Tesla tries to get funding today: LOL!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zngK13FMgXM

Anyways, as abrash, this analyst, and perhaps even the wise Jedi kevin williams here on our very forums hints at, perhaps this is not the moment, and the capital masters wont keep funding going long enough. Time will tell.

Kevin this jedi is 4 U!



Simply put, analysts almost never understand creationism, creation of a market. They know how to analyze after the floor and the space is created, they can spot opportunities to rape, pillage,and destroy (brigandage, piracy) and can report of when that is seeming to happen, but they don't generally every understand or know how to create a world from scratch.


I believe al capone once said that he DREAMED about being as good a criminal as the wall street raiders, he had nothing on those guys. Palmer and Cyber both didn't believe as strongly as I did, years ago. Yet I am the naysayer so many want to attack, or am I just the critical introspective who thinks like when edison was frying kittens on stage to hound tesla, that in the end, the truth will set you free, and all criticism can be welcomed, in the end, after all the gnashing of teeth, all the profits expired, all the raping and pillaging eroded, all the personalities and shenanigans and hype worn off, only excellence will remain.

The Rift is both opportunity and creation of the ground, the space, and the product, and is being inserted into a strong pull market, a market that is barely becoming aware that this new space even exists. That is the only way that this is ever going to happen. The haul across that space will be more arduous and drawn out, but the payoff and ownership of market share is much bigger and more potent, in this way.


Ownership, again you are still stuck in the matrix, the one you complain about with these corporate raiders, and capitalist pirates, who owns what and why? What did jadorowsky say about ownership?? http://www.oculusrift.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1904

Perhaps you own nothing, perhaps your very life and soul are the property of another, a higher order entity. You didn't build that.
mtbs3d.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4123 I am looking into that LEEP VR I lack practical 3d knowledge, I have found some good links, but I am not sure if they are the ones you were talking about. Would you mind direct linking me to them? :oops:

cleverusername
Explorer
"reverendkyle" wrote:
I disagree with Pachter on EVERYTHING he said in that video. Not just about the Oculus Rift, but EVERYTHING.

For one thing, he's got grey hair and wears a tie to talk about gaming companies. His audience is obviously other grey haired men with ties, NOT developers or gamers. His comments about not needing further gen consoles or further development of screen technology is a perfect example of why his LIMITED views on the industry are, in my opinion, completely worthless. I take no stock (pun intended) in his words.

From the perspective of developers and gamers....

WE decide what we buy, and WE decide what games we play/write/love. 50K+ people were willing to send $300 to this company, with no definitive delivery date and barely any game support.

The HOPE of a new technology keeps this project alive, not the opinion of some industry "expert".


I just watched the head of EA come out on some plant versus Zombie game, and I agree with what you say, all these guys with slick suits, revolt me internally, make me throwup a little bit in my mouth. They are not passionate in ways other people are, would they walk out on stage dressed like Spock because they thought it was funny (and not just trying to appeal to thier market segment) I couldn't see that EA slickster guy doing it, it disgusts me. You still talk about BUY and LOVE, why not listen to what palmer said himself years ago, make it yourself, hack, improve, quit waiting on oculus. VR does not live or die with Oculus, (as now Palmer seems to think) Unplug from the capitalist matrix, it is not here to SERVE you, it is here to IMPRISON you and enslave you and PROFIT off of you. As the analyst said, EA stock went up when the firings began. Same thing at IBM, when the mass layoffs started, profits went up, shareholders got richer, but it hurt a lot of PEOPLE, real human beings. Still, can you personally build a 2000hz display device as Geek Master has echoed of Abrash?
mtbs3d.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4123 I am looking into that LEEP VR I lack practical 3d knowledge, I have found some good links, but I am not sure if they are the ones you were talking about. Would you mind direct linking me to them? :oops:

cleverusername
Explorer
"blackplastick" wrote:

Who cares about consolers? PC gamers exist in an entirely different world and market. Consoles are bad for the PC gaming industry because they tend to hold back technology for the rest of us. Thankfully we now have a big wave of PC only titles coming via kickstarter projects that won't be dependent on 10 year old technology.

Pachter is a great example of the biggest problem with the game industry right now. People like him think they understand the technology and philosophy of gaming, but they really don't. They are only concerned about profits, not innovation or fun. Their biggest problem is they are extremely focused on trends. Trends (by definition) are basically what gives us games that are clones of other games.

Personally I am just sick of games built around button mashing. 99% of the AAA games in the last 5-10 years are all solely based around forcing players to struggle with a new interface from game to game. Having to figure out which button to mash and what combination to use just isn't fun for me.


I don't like console games either, my boss worked on the original IBM PC, it took tremendous effort to get the rest of IBM out of the project, so that innovation and disruption could happen. Still, in the capitalist world of sociopaths and tyrannical capital masters, does oculus survive? You bring up Kickstarter! YES! Microfunding, I am glad you mention it. This is why iribe's and palmer's sin was SO GREAT!! They perverted what happened at kickstarter. People like you, who thought, Screw these pigheaded closedminded motherphuggers, we will just go OUTSIDE the box around them, got lied too. Palmer and Iribe BOTH have admitted (iribe in a magazine interview - Palmer on Reddit) they just used kickstarter for marketing purposes, they had already sold out to the capitalist satan!! OMG! So much for needing you and your microfundig and kickstarter, the false prophet and dark forces WIN AGAIN!



mtbs3d.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4123 I am looking into that LEEP VR I lack practical 3d knowledge, I have found some good links, but I am not sure if they are the ones you were talking about. Would you mind direct linking me to them? :oops:

medrift
Honored Guest
Can anyone point out to me a super mega dupa rich analyst? No? Nuff said. An analysis is only as good as the information on which it is based. Oculus are definitely on to a winner with the Rift. It's something people want.

geekmaster
Protege
"cleverusername" wrote:
... Geek Master has posted some info around that Abrash is claiming 2000hz display hardware before it is practical for joe six pack.

I stopped reading after this sentence. I will get back to it later, but I wanted to clarify this point. Whatever Micheal Abrash thinks we need before general public ("joe six pack") acceptance is not necessarily what I think. I agree that eliminating both motion blur AND stroboscopic motion ghosting will require the frame-rates Michael Abrash suggested, however, I think that the hardware WE HAVE NOW in the form of the Rift DK is SUFFICIENT for a general public audience (many of whom have already ordered their Rift DK with no intent to develop ANY new content of their own).

Taking my recommended frame-rate quotes out of the "eliminating both blur and ghosts" context potentially distorts its perceived meaning. I agree with the technical requirements, but not necessarily with any implied social acceptance aspects, of which Michael may or may not have been talking about. I have not yet read all of his blog posts.

EDIT: Okay, I went back and read the rest of that post. No comments, other than the future both fascinates and frightens me. I just hope we can establish some solid "three laws" precedent into our AI before they take over during the technological singularity, when Nanny Bots will be our masters, and "education" (or re-education) will be carefully orchestrated much more masterfully than today.