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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

If I can avoid getting banned every time Atmos is banned then I will have reduced my number of bans by at least 50%.

vannagirl
Consultant

Zenbane said:


If I can avoid getting banned every time Atmos is banned then I will have reduced my number of bands by at least 50%.


o15gijntgeat.jpg
Look, man. I only need to know one thing: where they are. 

Shadowmask72
Honored Visionary
Tough call really as it's a pretty volatile market.

1. £299 Rift package a given at some point this year.
2.Oculus GO won't be as successful as Gear VR in the consumer market (due to lack of mobile phone driving sales)  but will gain ground in the Out of Home Entertainment sector.  😛
3. Resident Evil 7 will cement itself as the Must Have /Killer Ap VR game experience for this year despite being a year old on PSVR and lacking motion controls support. A benchmark so to speak of a AAA game that features 2D to subsidize the lack of VR sales. 
4. Pimax 8K will fail as a consumer device due to a number of reasons (mainly cost) but will be great for VR enthusiasts, especially those who enjoy seated experiences. 



System Specs: MSI NVIDIA RTX 4090 , i5 13700K CPU, 32GB DDR 4 RAM, Win 11 64 Bit OS.

kevinw729
Honored Visionary


Tough call really as it's a pretty volatile market.
....
2.Oculus GO won't be as successful as Gear VR in the consumer market (due to lack of mobile phone driving sales)  but will gain ground in the Out of Home Entertainment sector.  😛
....



You knew this would wake me up  😛

Agree with the first part though - a lot of people overlook how much of the initial GearVR shipping was discounted, or part of a expensive contract for free. Some researchers have tried to ascertain how many of the sold GVR were being used (with accounts) or just sitting in cupboards unopened, (a mute point as people move onto new (non-compatible) phones).

Now without a phone deal, the GVR will prove to be a mixed bag - that said, Samsung just announced that their new cost-effective phone range will be compatible with the older GVR VR holster so this could have a interesting impact.

But to the point that gets me interested - The Out-of-Home entertainment use of GVR has been heavy to say the least. Out of the many new attractions we research, over 50% of them are mobileVR based - that said the new PICO is gaining ground over the limitations of the GVR usage in commercial entertainment.



I agree that OG will be a big boon to deployment in park and amusement attractions. Now that OVR has a new Business initiative we can expect to see this market pushed heavily - catching up on the money and business Samsung made out of this market previously.

https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

nrosko
Superstar
I predict Oculus Go will not do as well as hoped. We will not see a CV2 this year Oculus will have a quiet year with software releases aimed at the Go. New Vive will come out & do OK but not great, uptake of windows VR will also continue to be slow. PSVR will do really well in 2018. CV2 will be announced towards the end of 2018 for release late 2019 & this will do much better.  

Anonymous
Not applicable

nrosko said:

I predict Oculus Go will not do as well as hoped. We will not see a CV2 this year Oculus will have a quiet year with software releases aimed at the Go. New Vive will come out & do OK but not great, uptake of windows VR will also continue to be slow. PSVR will do really well in 2018. CV2 will be announced towards the end of 2018 for release late 2019 & this will do much better.  



I'm expecting Hans Hartmann to do his magic and get the Go's price down to $99 after a year and we'll see that going mainstream. The Go won't be a raging success at first, I agree, but a year after it launches the thing will fly off shelves.

Just a note on the amusement park thing, I think using VR on roller coasters is a mistake. I went on Galactica at Alton Towers and what should have been a scary ride was turned into a very novel but underwhelming experience. The scares on such rides usually come from seeing what's in store for you but instead you're bombarded with various sci-fi scenarios that push the physical ride to a secondary background experience. I don't think it was just me either as you watch other people on the ride, they're eerily silent. These rides attract a lot of people because they want to experience VR, not having tried it at home, but I think many come away not realising how good VR really is in scenarios (like home PC VR) where it's adding excitement, not detracting from it.

Anonymous
Not applicable
@cybereality is there any chance of getting this stickied at all please? Seems like a good fit for stickiness I reckon.

cybereality
Grand Champion

snowdog said:

@cybereality is there any chance of getting this stickied at all please? Seems like a good fit for stickiness I reckon.


 There's already 100 sticky threads, don't think people will mind one more. Wish granted.
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Zenbane
MVP
MVP


Just a note on the amusement park thing, I think using VR on roller coasters is a mistake. I went on Galactica at Alton Towers and what should have been a scary ride was turned into a very novel but underwhelming experience. The scares on such rides usually come from seeing what's in store for you but instead you're bombarded with various sci-fi scenarios that push the physical ride to a secondary background experience. I don't think it was just me either as you watch other people on the ride, they're eerily silent. These rides attract a lot of people because they want to experience VR, not having tried it at home, but I think many come away not realising how good VR really is in scenarios (like home PC VR) where it's adding excitement, not detracting from it.




Ah, thanks for confirming my suspicions! I missed out on wearing a GearVR at Six Flags during a major ride. However, when I thought about it (theorycraft), I couldn't help but wonder if it would lessen the experience. In my case, I have a phobia of heights which makes rides all the more thrilling. If I cover my face with a VR HMD, while there will still be a fear element... it will definitely be lessened.

Afterall, VR still maintains "less presence" than the real world.

Simply put, being atop the 500 foot platform in Oculus Dream Deck is scary, but being atop a real life 500 foot platform would be absolutely dreadful (I'd probably pass out lol).

I think VR arcades and other physical attractions will have a place in the Industry, but for now they will almost certainly remain the black sheep of VR experiences. Too much physical movement while wearing these First Gen HMD's just isn't that great an idea.

It's also the reason that Seated/Standing experiences won out over Room-Scale experiences. Immersion comes from the mind, not the body. Keeping the body "at rest" will free up the mind to fall deeper in to immersion. Any form of physical movement lessens the experience, imo.

My first-hand experiences comes from boxing in VR. While I love the physical nature of it... my immersion is completely broken lol