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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

Stryker1000
Heroic Explorer
as long as OVR CV2 has a wireless HMD ... Then I will predict a RIOT !

Congratulations
Adventurer
I predict that they might make wireless head phones for CV1 Santa Cruz and go for 2018?

kevinw729
Honored Visionary


Just a note on the amusement park thing, I think using VR on roller coasters is a mistake.
.....
These rides attract a lot of people because they want to experience VR, not having tried it at home, but I think many come away not realising how good VR really is in scenarios (like home PC VR) where it's adding excitement, not detracting from it.




Thanks for the observation @DaftnDirect
I have to agree that we are at the beginning of the reestablishment of the technology as a viable platform. Only someone without a clear perspective dismiss it out of hand without considering this as a beginning of a great opportunity. The argument that says this is "not viable" is the same argument that was levelled at Palmer and Sony when they proposed that VR should be tried again in the mainstream.

I am happy you had a chance to try one of our clients platforms - I agree that the Galatica is not the best example of the approach towards VR on a flat ride - it ticks a lot of the boxes but also is hindered by a number of issues. But is still a very popular ride at the venue.

To date we have over 40 theme "park" attractions running on three styles of VR platform. Obviously our friends at VR Coaster have invested the most into the game, with their partnership with Samsung and they too have learnt some hard lessons. Most of these have been due to the great limitations of the VR holster and phone deployed in a commercial setting:



Beyond that we have the Merlin investment into the technology, and the development of Galatica and the Daren Brown Ghost Train. It is the lessons learned on this deployment that has lead to the success that is seen with the Kraken attraction at SeaWorld (same developers) - unanimously claimed to be one of the best applications of VR on a coaster:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5K950lBpi6A

It is interesting to know, unlike what some critics claim, Kraken does not use GVR, but a proprietary all-in-one headset system that also addresses 90% of the issues seen with the GVR in the field. Just to one poinjt you made about the experience. We have noticed that many of those made uncomfortable by coaster rides like the VR application as it gives them a different stimulus to focus on - but agreed if you are a true adrenaline junkie you want to see the track (that why there is the option!)

The point is that we are at a very early stage of deployment of VR into theme park attractions - while at the same time we are at a early stage of VR Arcade deployment and the new Location-based entertainment applications. Those that claimed that this sector was either a niche that would never be relevant, or claimed it was not viable as a business, are now scrabbling to try and re-write their previous criticism with dubious statements.

Just to underline my position - as a consultant that works with these developers and operators, based on my experience in the field I am still very sceptical of what VR can offer in the mass audience entertainment field in its current form. But with the announcement of the use of new HMD's (such as StarVR, Pimax, LG, etc.,) we can at least offer a VR experience that the majority of the audience "will not" be able to achieve at home.

The news of the use of Standalone WinMR VR systems on attractions is about to gain momentum - we were one of the first to report the use of the tech on the Acer partner Simulator project. And we hope to report on a brand new VR coaster system using the new wide FOV headsets before the end of the month. Along with this, and the great interest in VR backpack (Arena Scale) experience - Out-of-Home entertainment applications are moving in some interesting directions - just like with the early days with the DK2.

https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

Atmos73 said:


Just for the record I disagree with every single one of your predictions.




I certainly hope so! Every single one of your 2016 and 2017 predictions proved false (and many of them worked against you, like the unreleased Knuckle Controllers, HTC approaching bankruptcy, and VivePort). If you started agreeing with my predictions then I would have to engage in some very serious and thorough self-reflection.


First I want a disclaimer, my predictions are very specific so have
major chances of being wrong! I could play it safe and be vague like
Zenbane but I'm not one to shy away from a challenge.


LMAO - You literally started off by playing it safe and shying away from a challenge by putting up that safety net disclaimer.

That entire sentence can be accurately rephrased as,
"First I want to play it safe with this safety net disclaimer by saying that my predictions are probably wrong so don't hold me to them. I dont want to play it safe like Zenbane who didn't use a safety net disclaimer at all."

I sure hope you put more thought than that in to your 2018 predictions list
😄

BrockKane
Expert Protege
Rift will go wireless! Rift will go wireless! Did I mention..... oh never mind!

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

kevinw729 said:

The point is that we are at a very early stage of deployment of VR into theme park attractions - while at the same time we are at a early stage of VR Arcade deployment and the new Location-based entertainment applications. Those that claimed that this sector was either a niche that would never be relevant, or claimed it was not viable as a business, are now scrabbling to try and re-write their previous criticism with dubious statements.




Nice bait, but purely false. OOH was advocated for back in 2014 and now it is 2018 - 4 years later - and even you are forced to admit that OOH is, "at a early stage of VR Arcade deployment and the new Location-based entertainment application."

Being at the early stages after 4 years of trying only validates all the critics who claimed it was not viable as a business.

If anyone is trying to rewrite a narrative it would be the individual making it seem like 4 years in an infancy stage somehow proves multi-year industry success.

So do you have any predictions to make in this thread, or will you stick to launching another OOH campaign? I'm happy to provide that platform for you.
B)

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

Atmos73 said:
Zenbane you only made 4 predictions whoop de friggin do.




This is only the 4th day of the New Year, and since you clearly don't understand how forums work... the predictions are ongoing in this thread. I will make more as news develops and time passes. Yet no matter how many predictions I  make, unlike you I will not add a safety net disclaimer to serve as a scapegoat when the predictions fall flat.
😉



Atmos73 said:
Do you think CV2 with ditch Contellation and use inside out tracking like Santa Cruz?




Are you talking about the Oculus Rift CV2? And are we talking about the year 2018?

If the answer is yes to both... then, no. I do not believe that the Rift CV2 will abandon Constellation in favor of Inside-Out tracking in 2018. Especially since there probably won't be a Rift CV2 in 2018 lol

cybereality
Grand Champion
This is definitely getting into personal attack territory. I know you guys like to play with fire (meaning @Zenbane and @Atmos73 ), but this is becoming too much. If you can't have a civil discussion I will have to start locking threads or taking further action. Thanks.
AMD Ryzen 7 1800X | MSI X370 Titanium | G.Skill 16GB DDR4 3200 | EVGA SuperNOVA 1000 | Corsair Hydro H110i Gigabyte RX Vega 64 x2 | Samsung 960 Evo M.2 500GB | Seagate FireCuda SSHD 2TB | Phanteks ENTHOO EVOLV

@kevin729, I think VR amusements parks deserves a thread all to itself as there are so many possibilities. Is there a thread?


One thing I will say is that I was very impressed with the technology on Galactica. No-one was allowed to wear glasses so I was immediately weary of what kind of vision to expect having -5 & -5.5 prescription & astigmatism but the focal adjustment on those HMDs allowed for a perfectly crisp image indeed (I think I was at the limit of adjustment) and super high resolution.


For me the issue is choice if experience, the roller coaster just isn't the right one in my opinion. Partly because the real-world scares were being masked and partly the social aspect of amusements... you really want to share the scares with the people you're riding with and VR in that instance was kind of isolating.


Where VR really works I think is with an attraction that enhances the social interaction and makes use of VRs ability to add thrills to an otherwise normal space. I've seen one where a simple maze has been transformed into a ghost house type walk-through with amazing results (can't remember where it was though). Or small experiences where you take turns while your friends watch and take the piss, ideal for pubs.


But like you say, it's early days and I certainly wouldn't dismiss any attraction without trying it first.

Zenbane
MVP
MVP


This is definitely getting into personal attack territory. I know you guys like to play with fire (meaning @Zenbane and @Atmos73 ), but this is becoming too much. If you can't have a civil discussion I will have to start locking threads or taking further action. Thanks.



Agreed.

I should add a notation to the main post making it clear that this thread should be used to share predictions, and not used to launch crusades nor judge other people's predictions. When I quoted the Atmos and Kevin quotes at the start of the thread, for example, I added zero opinion or judgements of my own.

The idea is to make the mass-prediction making feel more fun and centralized; not make people feel "dumb" for being wrong. Case in point, by the time December 31st 2018 rolls around... I plan to have been wrong about at least 75% of my predictions! But I'm gonna ride that 25% accuracy well in to 2019 lol

Some predictions can make things feel personal but hopefully we can all share controversial predictions without attacking each other.

However, this thread will certainly need the Mod's to play referee from time to time since a few of us don't exhibit much self-restraint (I don't think I was born with that trait).

Cheers!