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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

BrockKane said:

Rift will go wireless! Rift will go wireless! Did I mention..... oh never mind!



Technically this already occurred near the end of 2017 with TPCast. Reports from users claim that a 3rd party software utility is needed to make it work as good as a tethered Rift, but close enough!

kevinw729
Honored Visionary


....
If you can't have a civil discussion I will have to start locking threads or taking further action. Thanks.



Can we avoid locking threads - it kind of plays into the hands of the perpetrators, achieving what they are hoping to trigger, and closes a discussion for the rest of the participants - just get rid of the problem please.

Anyway, trying to get this back on track after the latest derailment, and answering the question that was made.
https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

kevinw729 said:

Can we avoid locking threads - it kind of plays into the hands of the perpetrators, achieving what they are hoping to trigger, and closes a discussion for the rest of the participants - just get rid of the problem please.

Anyway, trying to get this back on track after the latest derailment, and answering the question that was made.



Talking about OOH at length in this thread is a derailment of the main topic.

Indirectly referring to me as a "problem to get rid of" and a "perpetrator" most certainly feels like a personal attack.

cybereality
Grand Champion
So I do not like locking threads in general. But sometimes things will spiral out of control and there is no saving the discussion. In this case, I think there is valuable information. So how about we agree to stay on topic and not to discuss other forum members or reply to others in an aggressive way? Please agree by liking this post and let's not discuss further and only stay on the topic. Thanks.
AMD Ryzen 7 1800X | MSI X370 Titanium | G.Skill 16GB DDR4 3200 | EVGA SuperNOVA 1000 | Corsair Hydro H110i Gigabyte RX Vega 64 x2 | Samsung 960 Evo M.2 500GB | Seagate FireCuda SSHD 2TB | Phanteks ENTHOO EVOLV

cybereality
Grand Champion
My prediction is that that Oculus Go will be the hottest item of the year. Everyone will want one!
AMD Ryzen 7 1800X | MSI X370 Titanium | G.Skill 16GB DDR4 3200 | EVGA SuperNOVA 1000 | Corsair Hydro H110i Gigabyte RX Vega 64 x2 | Samsung 960 Evo M.2 500GB | Seagate FireCuda SSHD 2TB | Phanteks ENTHOO EVOLV

kevinw729
Honored Visionary

DaftnDirect said:
@kevin729, I think VR amusements parks deserves a thread all to itself as there are so many possibilities. Is there a thread?
I totally agree - it was suggested we move the Out-of-Home entertainment VR stuff into its own "commercial VR" section. But it was suggested by the moderators that this would move it away from those that find this interesting. Not sure if now may be the best time to reconsider this, especially with the developments with the Oculus Business Edition due to be announced - and also as we need to manage positing more and more nowadays?

....but the focal adjustment on those HMDs allowed for a perfectly crisp image indeed (I think I was at the limit of adjustment) and super high resolution.
The guys at the developers did a great job fulfilling the requirements and stipulations Merlin placed on them. All hats off to them - and they would be the first to say it ain't perfect, but the system works as a viewing platform for the widest audience. A lot of companies are trying to guess the secret towards how they achieved such a saturation of image and effects on a limited GVR smartphone  😛

For me the issue is choice if experience, the roller coaster just isn't the right one in my opinion. Partly because the real-world scares were being masked and partly the social aspect of amusements...
What you call "amusement" I would describe as interactive engagement (semantics I know). Your right, if there is no interactivity, all you are is sitting back and watching a ride film while sitting on the best ride in the park! But you have to understand - baby steps.

Look I have been working on digital interactive amusement/attractions since the 90's - anyone that tells you that this is the first immersive media based theme park coaster is showing a woeful lack of any industry knowledge:



Okay, the tech was crude then - and has got better, but the same issues of media, engagement and detail of interactivity are all factors - and many of the lessons we learned with the last phase of VR attempted adoption are still being applied today. I know a lot of individuals got sick of my harping on about VR in amusement and attractions back in 2013 when I started posting on MTBS3D and then when I came over to here and the HTC/Valve forum - but now many see the point I was making ("commercial first, consumer most!")

Most of the focus on next gen VR attractions is to go down a refined interactive route - building on better motion systems suited to pushing the immersive envelopes in that genre.


Where VR really works I think is with an attraction that enhances the social interaction and makes use of VRs ability to add thrills to an otherwise normal space....
You are partly right - "the right horse for the right course".
We have at least five different flavours of immersive entertainment genres in our inventory (at this time) in the out-of-home entertainment scene. The backpack VR system offers the multiple player 'Arena Scale' experience - but we are also working on new Mixed Reality (not WinMR) systems that offer audience engagement and interactivity, without the isolation of current style HMD's for 'Dark Rides':

[Picture Removed]

It is dangerous to get fixated on what is happening now - that is why those without any vision could not see the business opportunities - and many are playing catch-up to jump onto the bus. Or we see software publishers pivoting to now turn their skills to the financial reward from an amusement application of their work.

Just look how Ubisoft has jumped onto the VR bandwagon for Out-of-Home entertainment with their brand new virtual maze system. At the moment its running Rabbids [video above], but already they are testing an Assassins Creed game for the platform that is the equal of what our friends at The VOID are testing.
DaftnDirect said:
But like you say, it's early days and I certainly wouldn't dismiss any attraction without trying it first.
Never dismiss - just build on achievements.

Thanks for the opportunity to have a discussion about this.
https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

Stryker1000
Heroic Explorer
I still predict a riot !

Zenbane
MVP
MVP


My prediction is that Oculus Go will be the hottest item of the year. Everyone will want one!



I will be getting both Go and Santa Cruz; both specifically to help support my WebVR efforts in 2018. Fun road ahead!

Anonymous
Not applicable


So I do not like locking threads in general. But sometimes things will spiral out of control and there is no saving the discussion. In this case, I think there is valuable information. So how about we agree to stay on topic and not to discuss other forum members or reply to others in an aggressive way? Please agree by liking this post and let's not discuss further and only stay on the topic. Thanks.



Oi!!! If you keep on saying I'm being too aggressive I'll smash your fucking face in!!! 😄 😛

cybereality
Grand Champion

snowdog said:

Oi!!! If you keep on saying I'm being too aggressive I'll smash your fucking face in!!! 😄 😛


 I get that you're joking, but this is not helping.
AMD Ryzen 7 1800X | MSI X370 Titanium | G.Skill 16GB DDR4 3200 | EVGA SuperNOVA 1000 | Corsair Hydro H110i Gigabyte RX Vega 64 x2 | Samsung 960 Evo M.2 500GB | Seagate FireCuda SSHD 2TB | Phanteks ENTHOO EVOLV