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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

jayhawk
Superstar

RedRizla said:

I'm looking to see what Nostradamus has to say on the matter. I know my prediction will be correct one then.
lol. If I remember correctly from the documentary I watched years ago he had made like 3 predictions a day over the course of 3 years, so really, he was bound to get something right.

Anonymous
Not applicable
Nostradamus was a complete space head apparently. Before his 'visions' he took hallucinogenic drugs, sit by a window and watch a water filled copper bowl that was sitting on a tripod. The breeze ruffled the water and he used to write what he saw during his trips. But it gets worse lol

When he was writing these things down he used to switch between different languages, often mid sentence. And if that wasn't enough a lot of the things that he wrote made no sense at all. So how have people translated these predictions? By taking out letters, adding letters and making anagrams of what's left.

He was actually a VERY intelligent bloke, spoke six or seven languages including a few ancient ones, and he was WAY ahead of his field when it came to medicine.

But he was also a bit of a mad space head lol

RedRizla
Honored Visionary
I think the predictions like Planes/Submarines and wars were bound to happen. All these people did was study nature to realise these things would happen one day. Take how a bird flies for example. Now think of nature and something that hasn't been matched already by us humans

flexy123
Superstar
1) Vive Pro becoming a success? Depends on the price. Even as a Rift user I admit that the Vive Pro is tempting, but not $800 or more "tempting". Atmos mentioned something about "Vive Pro with Knuckles for $500" <-- which is absolutely illusory. Will never happen.

2) Pimax 8K, I agree with many. It simply won't work out. It will be released and "work somehow", but likely with a plethora of issues and glitches. Everything points to that, I am afraid.

3) Oculus will continue to push their mobile kiddy devices like they're the best thing since sliced bread. Whether Go will be a success, I honestly don't know. I see it possible that it becomes VERY successful, but I can also see it flopping. For each side, there are various reasons. OTOH, standalone VR that is better than phone VR of course sounds good. But I am afraid that the "low end market" for VR is already tainted by mobile/phone VR crappola, which means that the target audience ALREADY established an opinion that "VR is a gimmick" and don't have the interest in it as Oculus may believe. Likewise, I also think that MS will push MSVR a lot and that MSVR *might* well become defacto VR standard for "average people".

4) It's POSSIBLE that Oculus realizes at some point that keeping quiet about a real CV2 for the entirety of 2018 and the largest of 2019 is not such a good idea. It's possible that we might hear about an upcoming CV2 earlier than expected, simply as a way to tease people that in-fact something better will come out - rather than leaving Rift users in the dust. Here, imagine that Vive Pro would REALLY come at a reasonable price (which I don't think), I can see this as a problem for Oculus. (Personally I would be VERY tempted if I knew there is an alternative HMD with somewhat better resolution and most importantly better optics, with less SDE and less god rays. I still don't know however whether Vive really improved optics or whether they use the same one, there is different information out there. If such a HMD would cost $500...well....

5) As it looks, and this is not just my own opinion but seems what a lot of people think, Vive Pro currently looks like "the real deal" because it offers at least SOME improvements over older gen....while Pimax will likely stay a pipe dream.

Just stating my opinion 🙂

Anonymous
Not applicable
I don't think there's much doubt that the Oculus Go is going to be a success. It's going to be HUGE in China before you start to think about the West. It being binary compatible with the Gear VR the Gear VR means it's going to launch with A LOT of great quality software on day one, and being compatible with the Mi VR SDK too in China means that it can use the Mi VR Store over there.

It's basically going to be a money tree for Oculus in the Far East lol

Anonymous
Not applicable
The Oculus Go is releasing 'early 2018' according to Oculus.

The Oculus Go is going to have a far superior library of software compared to Daydream right from the start, and why on earth will persons with ANY sort of phone worry about anything? That's the main advantage of the Go over ANY other sort of Mobile VR headset. YOU DON'T NEED A PHONE TO USE THE THING.


And the Xiaomi deal is HUGE.

Oculus are going to make a shitload of cash out of the Oculus Go worldwide, and that's before Hans Hartmann manages to cut the production costs by 50% either late this year or early next year.

The Santa Cruz, on the other hand isn't going to make a great deal of cash. I honestly can't understand why they're releasing the thing, its not as bad a business decision as the Vive Pro but it's still a bad business decision imo. Oculus will probably break even on it in the long run.

Anonymous
Not applicable
Of course it's going to take the world by storm. Even if NOBODY buys it in the West despite its superior library compared to Daydream it's going to sell like CRAZY in the Far East.

Oculus basically have a very nice money tree here. The Go is going to make stupid amounts of money for them.

ThreeSixty404
Honored Guest
Will there be another discount soon?
I would like to buy the Oculus bundle but I'm on a certain budget right now.

Anonymous
Not applicable


Will there be another discount soon?
I would like to buy the Oculus bundle but I'm on a certain budget right now.



I'm expecting it drop to $299/£299 some time this year. They'll probably announce it at F8 or at OC5.

Atmos73 said:



snowdog said:


Oculus basically have a very nice money tree here. The Go is going to make stupid amounts of money for them.


The HMD will be a loss leader at $199 and software sales will dry up as most people switch to Daydream.

Don't forget too, GO has no front camera so can't do AR or any cool stuff that most Mobiles can do now. I'd be hard pushed to know what to do with it if I had one.



You're also forgetting the difference in quality. We're not talking about a device powered by a smartphone here, hands on reports of the Oculus Go say that the quality of the displays is somewhere between the Gear VR and the Rift.

And a loss leader..? That would imply that they're making a loss on the hardware, what makes you think that Oculus and Facebook are going to change their approach. They'll sell it at cost, not at a loss. As for the software drying up we'll have to wait and see here in the West but the software sales will be CRAZY in China - and whilst they won't get the lion's share of the software sales over there on the Mi VR Store over there I guarantee you that they'll be getting a decent cut as part of the licencing with Xiaomi.

The Oculus Go will also get plenty of developer support in the West because, as I've already mentioned, it's going to sell A LOT. It's going to be the must-have item at Christmas this year over here as long as Oculus don't shit the bed regarding the battery power.

Nexovus
Explorer
I hope eye tracking gets added to Oculus.