The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane · February 2018

"This thread is at best childish for trying to influence Awards and sour to the Pimax competition."

One would have to maintain a childish view of "competition" itself to consider an unreleased product like the Pimax 8K to be competition against... y'know... on-the-shelf products that have actually been released to consumers on the global market.

JonJonXD · March 2018

I predict that due to Sony overselling expectations will push them even harder to release more VR content for the PS4, which will in turn prompt more software development on the PC side as well. I expect to see a lot more VR titles announced at E3 in 2018 due to this.

Personally, I think Windows Mixed Reality is just going to be one big fat mess, just like most projects Microsoft takes on that isn't Windows and Office in the endpoint sector, so you won't be seeing me invest in that.

I also expect Oculus to reveal their new HMD with full support for the existing sensor system. There is zero reason to replace them. I don't think either HTC or Oculus should even consider replacing sensors in the next few years, as to not alienate those that have already invested. New and improved sensors, sure, but not replacing existing investments.

I think Oculus will continue to heavily invest in gaming content, where as Facebook will continue to heavily invest in R&D for VR experiences, like their new Facebook Spaces beta.

HTC's new wireless headset looks nice and will probably become the defacto high end VR experience due to it being wireless and higher resolution, at least from a hardware perspective.

snowdog · March 2018

Yup. Contrary to popular belief the Constellation system isn't going anywhere. Same with Lighthouse too, which we've already seen with the Vive Pro.

A great deal of people on Reddit seem convinced that the CV2 is going to have inside-out tracking but there's no way that it's ready for high-end VR, even with extra cameras on the headset.

Those sensors must be as cheap as chips to make these days as are the IR LEDs on the headset and Touch controllers. This is why (along with the hard work of Hans Hartmann!) Oculus have been able to drop the price of the Rift so much since launch. The tracking is just as good as the Lighthouse system and a fraction of the price to manufacture. It isn't going anywhere until the CV3 is released in 2022ish.

Mradr · March 2018

Well I could see a hybrid approach to inside-out + outside-in tracking. Where the base station becomes wireless and used to help ground everything, but consider an option as the inside-out tracking will be used as the main tracking for the headset. More like an upgrade just like getting extra cameras are right now for tracking. This way:

1) Setup would be easy as you would just plug the monitor cable+usb instead limiting the amount of work to get it going.
2) As an upgrade - it gives users the option to setup a room if they have the space for it. Other wise, just use the built in tracking instead.

As for the rest of 2018 - unless I am getting a new shiny CV2 x..x it wont effect me much either way. So until that happens, I will just have to wait and collect up on my VR software:) As for my family, I will be getting the SC and OGO for the kids. Working on some software for the OGO for kids, and dropping off a few at the local schools so they can have a bit of fun with it. That's all I have though sadly.

Well I have more - but most of it I already have said and or will just have to wait and see what Oculus does. Till then, just have to wait and keep VRing on.

cybernettr · March 2018

Most people are more interested in short-term predictions than long-term predictions – what will be on the new iPhone, when will the rift CV2 be announced, what will be the hot new games of 2018, etc. I’m more interested in long-term predictions — what will VR, AI, games and gadgets be like in 10 to 15 years? On the one hand, you don’t have to wait as long for next year’s stuff, but on the other hand, technology will have 10 to 15 years to improve over the long term, so the improvements will be much more fantastic. I still haven’t gotten most people to share my interest in the long term, however.

Zenbane · March 2018

Predictions Review time,

Most of the Predictions are for Summer and Winter, but we do have some March Predictions from our favorite non-Rift owner, Mr. @Atmos73:

Second I get some shiney new Knuckle controllers around March 2018.
Third, HTC release an updated Vive package with BS 2.0 and Knuckles around March 2018 - for $500.
Forth, Budget Cuts or one of Valves games gets released in March 2018 with full Knuckle support.

It's March 8th and none of these are actually happening. Knuckle controllers are still as Mythological as the Unicorn. Not much time left for these predictions to come true.

Zenbane · March 2018

cybernettr said:

Most people are more interested in short-term predictions than long-term predictions – what will be on the new iPhone, when will the rift CV2 be announced, what will be the hot new games of 2018, etc. I’m more interested in long-term predictions — what will VR, AI, games and gadgets be like in 10 to 15 years? On the one hand, you don’t have to wait as long for next year’s stuff, but on the other hand, technology will have 10 to 15 years to improve over the long term, so the improvements will be much more fantastic. I still haven’t gotten most people to share my interest in the long term, however.

Yeah sorry, this is only a 2018 predictions thread, not a 2028 thread lol

It's too hard to predict that far off, and many of us won't be around to follow up on the "who was right" vs "who was wrong" with all these predictions.

More importantly, short-term accomplishments are what dictate long-term innovations. One of the driving forces behind this thread is the fact that many of us can't even agree on the short-term; so trying to analyze the long-term seems futile.

I do like your ideas about the future though!

LZoltowski · March 2018

and the Design Awards go to HTC Vive Knuckles !!! ....

*read wrong envelope" -- Thanks PWC

NOT HTC!

Those things are hideous.

Zenbane · March 2018

Indeed LZ, and just looking at those images... we can all see why they still have no release date AND why HTC is launching Vive Pro without them.

The Knuckles are a huge flop and will definitely be too little too late when and "if" they ever make it to the consumer market.

LZoltowski · March 2018

If the Vive Pro which is arriving without the "knuckles" has no release date yet ... how can knuckles be coming out anytime soon?

Zenbane · March 2018

LZoltowski said:

If the Vive Pro which is arriving without the "knuckles" has no release date yet ... how can knuckles be coming out anytime soon?

Mradr · March 2018

Digikid1 · March 2018

Oh you just HAD to go there. LOL

Zenbane · March 2018

Atmos73 said:

Atmos73 said:

Wow where to start...

Third, HTC release an updated Vive package with BS 2.0 and Knuckles around March 2018 - for $500.

So HTC release a new Vive package in March for £500!

This isn't a thread for trolling; people can see you editing your predictions lol

You specifically said that the $500 would be for:

An "updated" Vive package, which it is not.
Knuckle controllers included, which they are not.

Your prediction is dead wrong, as are your other March predictions (which you also edited). Don't spam with edits after you realize you're wrong.

Zenbane · March 2018

Atmos73 said:
I predicted a Vive price cut to $500 around March which was correct.

Nope, you predicted this:
"Third, HTC release an updated Vive package with BS 2.0 and Knuckles around March 2018 - for $500."

You were wrong. If you want to be a sore loser and spam about it, then that's your choice. I think you have more to gain from learning from your mistakes and moving forward.

snowdog · March 2018

Nice try. It's the exact same package lol

Zenbane · March 2018

Atmos73 said:
Wasn't it you who predicted Santa Cruz for $200 which turned out to be GO lol

Even if it was... snowdog never pulled an Atmos and amended the Prediction.

And wasn't it you who predicted that the Santa Cruz would really be the Rift CV2?

Zenbane · March 2018

Atmos73 said:
I'm bitter that all my March predictions were 100% wrong, so I'm going to rage on your existing predictions.

Image: https://i.warosu.org/data/tg/img/0439/98/1449327716428.gif

Zenbane · March 2018

Atmos73 said:

Ok let’s reignite the predictions.

Question: How much will Santa Cruz cost?

Atmos - £/$500
@Zenbane - ???
@Snowdog - ???

I think most can agree that it will range from $450USD - $650USD in all likelihood

I'm going with 450USD (£318) based on the fact that it is supposed to be Mid-Range VR. If it's too expensive it could work against itself where it is automatically more sensible for a consumer to simply buy the Rift. It has to cost more than GO but significantly less than a new Rift + PC setup. So around $450 is the sweetspot, but I can also see it launching a $550 as a new device.

bigmike20vt · March 2018

Atmos73 said:

Ok I’ve changed the value to pounds only and put you down as £318. Smashin

(why am i getting involved??? no idea...) but dont forget you need to add 20% vat on that to be even close to fair. those guys dont have tax added on their stuff at source... Even then it is a little unfair as those outside of America may not realise how badly we in blighty get ripped off, and it will only get worse after brexit finally happens. generally £1 = $1 which you know....
TLDR if you are genuinely interested in a battle of wits and predictions....... take his $ price

PS... Can I play?

Santa Cruz
I will go for $399 + local taxes and £400 inc VAT
Date.... ... January 2019 - I think they will aim for xmas release and will unfortunately miss it!.

Rift CV2 I will go for A teaser announcement in Q3 2018 and a November 2019 launch

bigmike20vt · March 2018

Atmos73 said:

But the £ normally gets converted automatically to the $ 1:1 so £500 would be $500.

£500 inc vat would not be an outrageous guess but i am not speaking for ZB. (i would say the normal $1-£1 works fairly well but only when you factor in that is normally excluding tax in the US and including VAT in the uk, so it is not *quite* as bad as 1:1)

anyway i dunno why the frak i am arguing between you 2 its nowt to do with me. i just kicked in a few guesses just for fun.... either way they wont be as far off as your very 1st knuckles launch prediction (April 2017 wasn’t it) or your prediction at the vive pro cost

(i am joking)

Morgrum · March 2018

My 2018 VR prediction is that both Zen and Atmos will be banned numerous times this year while argueing with each other.

nalex66 · March 2018

Yeah, I'm guessing that it would be around $400 to $500 (USD). $500 would certainly be a reasonable price, but given how aggressively they've priced Go, I wouldn't be surprised if they bring Santa Cruz to market at $400.

I don't know how Oculus prices are working out in pounds these days (is it $1 = £1?), but if you're going to convert our predictions, please do it in line with current pricing rates. Or better yet, why don't we keep our predictions in USD since that's how Oculus gear is primarily priced?

nrosko · March 2018

I think maybe they dropped the ball with Oculus Go as windows mixed reality units are around similar price point at this moment. why buy a £200 headset with no tracking when you can pay a bit more for a higher res headset with tracking?

snowdog · March 2018

Santa Cruz will be $399/£399 and released in November this year. Announced at F8 during the keynote and the Rift will get a price cut to $299/$349/£299/£349. My first guess is 299 notes but it all depends on whether they can break even at that price.

Oculus will also be the first of the two reaching the 1m sales mark too, some time in the Summer after the price cut.

We'll also have a teaser of the CV2 at F8, 4K native with foveated rendering.

bigmike20vt · March 2018

nrosko said:

I think maybe they dropped the ball with Oculus Go as windows mixed reality units are around similar price point at this moment. why buy a £200 headset with no tracking when you can pay a bit more for a higher res headset with tracking?

Because you don't need a high end pc to run them. It may not seem it on here but we are a minority of pc owners with vr capable pc

Zenbane · March 2018

@nrosko PC dependency vs non-PC dependency.

There are people who steer clear of Microsoft products like the plague. Those people won't have a Rift or Vive or WMR because they are all Microsoft dependent. GO is a good choice for them if they own nothing else. And the number of people in the world who still do not own any Immersive virtual reality hmds is in the Billions.

It is important to understand the sport first before predicting ball drops.

Zenbane · April 2018

neocaleric said:

Let's join this game. Predictions for 2018!
1. Oculus Go is a success on casual market. (not a massive one but it sells enough to make it profitable)
2. VivePro does barely ok. Perhaps price point too high or not that much of a difference with current tech to justify an upgrade.
3. We get release date and price point for Santa Cruz at OC5. Comes Q4 2019 at $399. But here's the catch, this is actually CV2. Standalone stays on Go, CV2 connects wirelessly to a PC for best possible VR experience. Updated screens, fov, ergonomics, tracking and controllers. Basically an upgrade on all fronts. Still no foveated rendering or eye tracking though.
4. Skyrim VR, Doom VFR and Fallout 4 VR get official Oculus compatibility
5. PSVR continues dominating the VR market. It gets a price drop and maybe updated dedicated controllers.
6. Biggest upgrades we all get come from the Oculus Home experience as it continues to evolve and integrate social aspects.

Well done, neocaleric. While Doom and Fallout did not launch with official Touch support, they were "compatible" with the Rift. Skyrim launched with full compatibility.

But your 6th prediction is spot on coming out of the latest Oculus round of news. Major upgrades to home were announced last month, including the social upgrades coming by summer.

DaftnDirect · April 2018

mmm I'm optimistic now that Skyrim was given proper Rift support, Bethesda will see sense and patch Fallout 4, giving the same Rifty goodness.

Zenbane · April 2018

Completely agree. Now that they got a real taste of those Rift profits, they will be fiending for more!

The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

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