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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    They would have had that in the game when it launched but HTC part-funded the development so you can see why they didn't.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    I guess the market reminded Bethesda of something very important in business: Never throw the baby out with the bathwater.



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  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 5,702 Volunteer Moderator
    snowdog said:
    They would have had that in the game when it launched but HTC part-funded the development so you can see why they didn't.

    Yep, I can't really complain if that's the case.

    I'm wondering how such funding translates to a Rift patch then... I mean it's possible there's a clause to prohibit future native Rift support. I may have to re-evaluate my optimism.

    Intel 5820K [email protected], Titan X (Maxwell), 16GB Corsair Vengeance DDR4, ASRock X99 Taichi, Samsung 500Gb 960 Evo M.2, Corsair H100i v2 Cooler, Inateck KTU3FR-4P USB 3 card, Windows 10 Pro v1903 (18363.720)
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    Probably a timed exclusive I expect. HTC wouldn't have fronted enough cash for a sole platform deal. Same goes for Sony and Skyrim.

    After playing Skyrim VR I'd prefer it if Sony had done the same thing with Fallout 4, no problems at all with performance with Skyrim VR due to the lead platform being less powerful.

    Although having a different team on Skyrim VR probably helped matters too.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • GeekyGamiGeekyGami Posts: 114
    Art3mis
    Alright, my predictions:

    When OpenXR comes out, it'll become similar to OpenGL, but for VR.

    People will start debates on whether SteamVR or OpenXR is better for the industry to be pushed forward.

    People will argue that this will lead to the same problem as BetaMax and VHS.
  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 4,153 Valuable Player
    Steamvr as I understand it only works natively on the viveand is a wrapper which sits on top of the oculus software..... If I understand it correctly openXR will run natively on all hmds which should mean it will be better (for rift and windows MR users ). It may even be better for vivers. Oculus are involved with open xr so hopefully they will share their tricks like spacewarp etc
    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • kilobulbkilobulb Posts: 119
    Art3mis
    edited April 2018
    GeekyGami said:
    Alright, my predictions:

    When OpenXR comes out, it'll become similar to OpenGL, but for VR.

    People will start debates on whether SteamVR or OpenXR is better for the industry to be pushed forward.

    People will argue that this will lead to the same problem as BetaMax and VHS.




    Is the point not to create one standard so there isn't a repeat of betamax/vhs or bluray/hddvd causing confusion and stalling adoption? This seems to be basically everyone. Is anyone developing a competing standard?

    “Khronos’ open APIs have been immensely valuable to the industry, balancing the forces of differentiation and innovation against gratuitous vendor incompatibility. As virtual reality matures and the essential capabilities become clear in practice, a cooperatively developed open standard API is a natural and important milestone. Oculus is happy to contribute to this effort,” said John Carmack, CTO, Oculus VR.




     “The number of VR systems on the market is growing rapidly. Most of these require separate API support from the developer, which is causing huge fragmentation for consumers,” said Gabe Newell of Valve. “Khronos’ work on a standard API to enable applications to target a wide variety of VR devices is an important step to counter that trend.”


    Format war averted?

    source
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    Steamvr as I understand it only works natively on the viveand is a wrapper which sits on top of the oculus software..... If I understand it correctly openXR will run natively on all hmds which should mean it will be better (for rift and windows MR users ). It may even be better for vivers. Oculus are involved with open xr so hopefully they will share their tricks like spacewarp etc

    I'm pretty sure that I remember reading somewhere that when it came to voting in features for OpenXR almost all of the features that made the cut were from the Oculus SDK.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    Valve will HAVE to announce something soon otherwise we'll see the Pimax Knuckles controllers launching before the Valve Knuckles controllers lol :o:D:D:D
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • dburnedburne Posts: 3,506 Valuable Player
    snowdog said:
    Valve will HAVE to announce something soon otherwise we'll see the Pimax Knuckles controllers launching before the Valve Knuckles controllers lol :o:D:D:D
    Or maybe they are both crapping their pants after seeing talk of the gloves Oculus is working on for perhaps in CV2.
    Knuckles ( what a name ) may not see the light of day.
    ;)
    Don

    EVGA Z390 Dark MB | I9 9900k| EVGA 2080Ti FTW3 Ultra |32 GB G Skill 3200 cl14 ram | Warthog Throttle | VKB Gunfighter Pro/MCG Pro grip | Crosswind Pedals | EVGA DG 87 Case| Rift S | Quest |
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    The Knuckles controllers will probably get released eventually but the important question is will developers use tracking for those extra two fingers? We hardly ever use those fingers individually in real life so I can't see that many developers using them in games and apps. We generally use them to make a fist or grip and the Touch controllers have that covered. Drinking tea posh and doing the Heavy Metal sign are the only two uses I can think of in real life tbh.

    This is why I believe that Oculus didn't add tracking for those two fingers, there isn't any real point in having it.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:
    There’s no point having real weather in Skyrim either, you can’t feel the rain.

    Well that's a completely nonsensical reply lol :o:D
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:
    snowdog said:
    Atmos73 said:
    There’s no point having real weather in Skyrim either, you can’t feel the rain.

    Well that's a completely nonsensical reply lol :o:D

    Weather gives you an added sense of immersion as does being able to wiggle all five fingers. You don’t really need them but it’s nice when they’re there. If you don’t understand immersion you shouldn’t be in VR. Haha.

    And my point still stands. What developer is going to add the option of being able to wiggle your fingers just for the sake of being able to wiggle all of your fingers. If the use of those two fingers was crucial to gameplay then you could understand it but unless you're working on a Posh Tea Drinking Simulator or a Heavy Metal Simulator you won't bother with it.
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • Hiro_Protag0nistHiro_Protag0nist Posts: 4,978 Valuable Player
    Manus VR and Noitom Hi5 gloves are dev kits aren't they?

    And both cost $1,000 plus extras last time i checked.

    They look great but are, ironically, out of reach.
  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 6,774 Volunteer Moderator
    I predict there will be more VR stuff. All shapes and sizes, something for everyone, all ages, al budgets ... no need to argue who's is best or who's is here first :)
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  • Hiro_Protag0nistHiro_Protag0nist Posts: 4,978 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:
    Manus VR and Noitom Hi5 gloves are dev kits aren't they?

    And both cost $1,000 plus extras last time i checked.

    They look great but are, ironically, out of reach.
    But they are a reality like Tobii Vive eye trackers. Oculus gloves aren’t even close.

    My point is people are dreaming about Oculus tech in the future while Vive tech is here now.

    True.
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    There is a Vive forum for people who want to dream about Vive tech. So far there are no Knuckles and we're already seeing progress on Oculus Gloves which are 100 times better than the terribly over-sized Knuckles.

    The original predictions about Knuckles failed. Once a prediction fails please don't repeatedly bump this thread with spam about that exact same prediction.

    And it's great if someone prefers Vive over Rift, there's a community for that:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/Vive/

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018

    Yes, my CV2/F8 predictions turned out wrong. While Facebook did demo the Half Dome which has the entire Internet talking about a Rift CV2, Facebook did not specifically present it as a Rift CV2.

    And my 2020 release prediction for CV2 will probably end up wrong as well, since most people (including myself), now believe that 2019 is more realistic thanks to what we saw at F8.

    I need to update the thread with all the latest and greatest prediction results.

    I don't mind being wrong about my predictions, which is why you don't see me spamming the thread with attempts to correct them. Unlike "some" people. *cough**cough*
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018

    Something important to point out about the reason Oculus consumers would be more interested in waiting for Oculus Gloves as opposed to wasting money on the competition is because Facebook-Oculus have a proven track-record of releasing a suite of software to accompany their hardware innovations.

    When Touch was released, we had several free games at our disposal: The Unspoken, VR Sports Challenge, Dead & Buried, Oculus Medium, Quill. Facebook-Oculus even goes as far as to combine software innovations, such as combining Oculus Medium sculptures with the new Oculus Home.

    Even if Valve's Knuckles manage to come out before the Oculus gloves (which at present day seems as much a dream as believing that Pimax is going to actually release a consumer-ready 8K headset), it won't matter because neither Valve nor HTC have a real history of backing up their hardware with quality software. Look at how long it took to release Fallout 4 and Skyrim for VR, and look at how many updates, fixes, and mods are needed to make them worthwhile. Not to mention that the success of Revive - allowing Vive owners to play Oculus titles - as further evidence of the success model Facebook-Oculus maintains by releasing software to accompany hardware.

    The excitement Oculus consumers show is not the result of "dreaming," it is the result of first-hand knowledge of the quality that ends up in our possession, with both hardware and software.

    Today's discussion is 2016 all over again, when HTC launched with room-scale and hand-controllers first. This community was told the same thing: We're dreaming about future tech when the competition has it now. But the counter-argument is the same: The competition has an implementation that isn't worth the investment, we'd rather wait for something more sophisticated and innovative.

    Now it's 2018 and the dialogue hasn't changed; yet it very much should.
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  • ThmoasThmoas Posts: 324
    Trinity
    snowdog said:
    The Knuckles controllers will probably get released eventually but the important question is will developers use tracking for those extra two fingers? We hardly ever use those fingers individually in real life so I can't see that many developers using them in games and apps. We generally use them to make a fist or grip and the Touch controllers have that covered. Drinking tea posh and doing the Heavy Metal sign are the only two uses I can think of in real life tbh.

    This is why I believe that Oculus didn't add tracking for those two fingers, there isn't any real point in having it.
    You do have a point. Few games use all capabilities of Touch.
  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 4,153 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018
    Atmos73 said:

    My point is people are dreaming about Oculus tech in the future while Vive tech is here now.
    which you never did about knuckles of course... wasnt it april 2017 you predicted their launch to be... you are cheating a bit now by changing your guess..... ;)

    btw i too am stuck with predictions which are likely to be over optimistic, so i am not being overly critical here.. we all are guilty of it sometimes.
    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:

    My point is people are dreaming about Oculus tech in the future while Vive tech is here now.
    which you never did about knuckles of course... wasnt it april 2017 you predicted their launch to be... you are cheating a bit now by changing your guess..... ;)

    It's been over a year of someone "dreaming" about Knuckle tech. And I lost count of how many months the "Pimax 8K" dreaming has taken shape.

    Vive tech is here now, but it's tech that needed a bailout (from Google).
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  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 4,153 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018
    Atmos73 said:
    Well not sure how the fundamental design changed for Knuckles over that period but there was a rumour about Knuckles having the ability to change the trackpad for sticks withought the need to buy a whole new controller.
    for me personally that would be the biggest issue i have with the vive fixed overnight.

    Atmos73 said:
    The sad truth is the slow rate of VR adoption means there’s less pressure for Valve to pull the rabbit out of the hat. But let’s wait we could have some news in a few days. 
    So for me personally this is why valve piss me off.... they make so much money, hell I would guess they make more money in an hr by doing nothing, just selling trading cards and hats than i make in a year *again total guess i could be spouting crap* that thowing a million or 10 into getting a wiggle on on finishing the knuckles design would be a drop in the bucket.

    its like their old ips.....  they could easily hire the staff and sink the cash in to get them made, it would barely put a dent in their profits, given they have almost a monopoly on pc flat screen gaming..... and lets be honest, its risk free.... a L4D3 or dare i whisper it HL3 would easily make its money back and then some... so really there is no reason not to.

    but instead they just let people shovel utter dross on their store so card traders can trade, valve get their 30% and then the actual gems often get buried in the stink of junk.  (people like Jim Sterling help sort some of the wheat from the chaff but not everyone likes or follows youtube pundits).

    valve time is a meme all in itsself, and worst still, they tease this stuff, which makes some people hold off on getting into VR whilst they wait for this stuff, not knowing they will be waiting for god knows how long (remember steam machines?)

    Rather waiting they *could* try leading and be part of the solution of potential slower than expected uptake in VR.
    at least the likes of oculus, HTC, MS and pimax are trying to keep the ball rolling.

    right rant over... sorry i went a bit over the edge then...

    PS none of this is aimed negatively at you atmos.
    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018

    As more and more consumers migrate to PCVR, I'm seeing an influx of comments similar to yours in the Virtual Reality group on Facebook. Many folks who take a more neutral approach to analyzing the differences between OH and Steam do end up coming to a similar conclusion regarding Valve,

    "they just let people shovel utter dross on their store so card traders can trade, valve get their 30% and then the actual gems often get buried in the stink of junk. "

    That is a fundamental truth with the current state of SteamVR. And also the reason that Palmer funds Revive; his way of making sure the competition can actually play quality titles.

    Valve, HTC, and Microsoft are doing very little to help VR grow at all. Pimax is causing more harm than good by showing the world that VR is a great target for kickstarter scams. Google is doing some great stuff, but they always have their "Googliness" approach which tends to appeal to such a small subset of consumers. Like Google Docs (vs Microsoft Office), their Smart Phones, and Google Home (vs Alexa).

    Facebook-Oculus are leading the VR charge. The more successful they become, the more successful the Industry becomes and the more it thrives; which means the more the competition is able to push forward as well.

    When people treat Facebook-Oculus like the enemy, as well as the Oculus community, they are really only taking a stance against Industry success; and condemning the single-driving force behind their own investments with competitor products. Kinda silly, really.
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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,479 Valuable Player
    Don't get me started on Valve again lol :o:D

    They ARE working on three games though. And they're probably all going to be launch titles for the Knuckles controllers some time in 2037 all going well. :p
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    snowdog said:
    Don't get me started on Valve again lol

    They ARE working on three games though. And they're probably all going to be launch titles for the Knuckles controllers some time in 2037 all going well.

    Gosh, yes... the 3 games. I read an article recently that said.... wait for it...

    CONFIRMED! Valve is STILL working on 3 games.


    Get the phone lines ready, folks.

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  • dburnedburne Posts: 3,506 Valuable Player
    Zenbane said:
    snip

    Facebook-Oculus are leading the VR charge. The more successful they become, the more successful the Industry becomes and the more it thrives; which means the more the competition is able to push forward as well.

    When people treat Facebook-Oculus like the enemy, as well as the Oculus community, they are really only taking a stance against Industry success; and condemning the single-driving force behind their own investments with competitor products. Kinda silly, really.
    Couldn't agree more.

    Don

    EVGA Z390 Dark MB | I9 9900k| EVGA 2080Ti FTW3 Ultra |32 GB G Skill 3200 cl14 ram | Warthog Throttle | VKB Gunfighter Pro/MCG Pro grip | Crosswind Pedals | EVGA DG 87 Case| Rift S | Quest |
  • Greylock3491Greylock3491 Posts: 3
    NerveGear
    edited May 2018
    Lots of great predictions!

    Here's another to add to the list: Second Gen VR HMDs
     
    - Multiple Gen 2 models released in late 2019 and early 2020, including new models from Oculus, Vive, Apple, Samsung, Sony, Acer, Lenovo, Primax, and more.

    - Gen 2 defined by 4K per eye, 180 Degree FOV, built-in stereo mic and earphones

    - All support inside out tracking with four built-in cameras, two of which can also be used for AR apps.

    - Some models also support external cameras for enhanced tracking in multi-user roomscale VR experiences.

    - Most support downscaling and adjustable foveated rendering to allow a wide range of graphic card support, from as low as a GTX1050/980 to full res with a GTX1180.

    - All support both OpenXR and OpenVR

    Crazy?

    Grey The Gamer
    Check out my VR gameplay videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/Greylock3491

  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 15,133 Valuable Player
    Love those predictions, @Greylock3491 !!
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