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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

Thmoas
Rising Star

snowdog said:

The Knuckles controllers will probably get released eventually but the important question is will developers use tracking for those extra two fingers? We hardly ever use those fingers individually in real life so I can't see that many developers using them in games and apps. We generally use them to make a fist or grip and the Touch controllers have that covered. Drinking tea posh and doing the Heavy Metal sign are the only two uses I can think of in real life tbh.

This is why I believe that Oculus didn't add tracking for those two fingers, there isn't any real point in having it.


You do have a point. Few games use all capabilities of Touch.

bigmike20vt
Visionary

Atmos73 said:

My point is people are dreaming about Oculus tech in the future while Vive tech is here now.


which you never did about knuckles of course... wasnt it april 2017 you predicted their launch to be... you are cheating a bit now by changing your guess..... 😉

btw i too am stuck with predictions which are likely to be over optimistic, so i am not being overly critical here.. we all are guilty of it sometimes.
Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR 🙂

Zenbane
MVP
MVP



Atmos73 said:

My point is people are dreaming about Oculus tech in the future while Vive tech is here now.


which you never did about knuckles of course... wasnt it april 2017 you predicted their launch to be... you are cheating a bit now by changing your guess..... 😉



It's been over a year of someone "dreaming" about Knuckle tech. And I lost count of how many months the "Pimax 8K" dreaming has taken shape.

Vive tech is here now, but it's tech that needed a bailout (from Google).

bigmike20vt
Visionary

Atmos73 said:

Well not sure how the fundamental design changed for Knuckles over that period but there was a rumour about Knuckles having the ability to change the trackpad for sticks withought the need to buy a whole new controller.


for me personally that would be the biggest issue i have with the vive fixed overnight.


Atmos73 said:

The sad truth is the slow rate of VR adoption
means there’s less pressure for Valve to pull the rabbit out of the hat.
But let’s wait we could have some news in a few days. 


So for me personally this is why valve piss me off.... they make so much money, hell I would guess they make more money in an hr by doing nothing, just selling trading cards and hats than i make in a year *again total guess i could be spouting crap* that thowing a million or 10 into getting a wiggle on on finishing the knuckles design would be a drop in the bucket.

its like their old ips.....  they could easily hire the staff and sink the cash in to get them made, it would barely put a dent in their profits, given they have almost a monopoly on pc flat screen gaming..... and lets be honest, its risk free.... a L4D3 or dare i whisper it HL3 would easily make its money back and then some... so really there is no reason not to.

but instead they just let people shovel utter dross on their store so card traders can trade, valve get their 30% and then the actual gems often get buried in the stink of junk.  (people like Jim Sterling help sort some of the wheat from the chaff but not everyone likes or follows youtube pundits).

valve time is a meme all in itsself, and worst still, they tease this stuff, which makes some people hold off on getting into VR whilst they wait for this stuff, not knowing they will be waiting for god knows how long (remember steam machines?)

Rather waiting they *could* try leading and be part of the solution of potential slower than expected uptake in VR.
at least the likes of oculus, HTC, MS and pimax are trying to keep the ball rolling.

right rant over... sorry i went a bit over the edge then...

PS none of this is aimed negatively at you atmos.
Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR 🙂

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
@bigmike20vt

As more and more consumers migrate to PCVR, I'm seeing an influx of comments similar to yours in the Virtual Reality group on Facebook. Many folks who take a more neutral approach to analyzing the differences between OH and Steam do end up coming to a similar conclusion regarding Valve,

"they just let people shovel utter dross on their store so
card traders can trade, valve get their 30% and then the actual gems
often get buried in the stink of junk. "

That is a fundamental truth with the current state of SteamVR. And also the reason that Palmer funds Revive; his way of making sure the competition can actually play quality titles.

Valve, HTC, and Microsoft are doing very little to help VR grow at all. Pimax is causing more harm than good by showing the world that VR is a great target for kickstarter scams. Google is doing some great stuff, but they always have their "Googliness" approach which tends to appeal to such a small subset of consumers. Like Google Docs (vs Microsoft Office), their Smart Phones, and Google Home (vs Alexa).

Facebook-Oculus are leading the VR charge. The more successful they become, the more successful the Industry becomes and the more it thrives; which means the more the competition is able to push forward as well.

When people treat Facebook-Oculus like the enemy, as well as the Oculus community, they are really only taking a stance against Industry success; and condemning the single-driving force behind their own investments with competitor products. Kinda silly, really.

Anonymous
Not applicable
Don't get me started on Valve again lol 😮 😄

They ARE working on three games though. And they're probably all going to be launch titles for the Knuckles controllers some time in 2037 all going well. 😛

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

snowdog said:

Don't get me started on Valve again lol

They ARE working on three games though. And they're probably all going to be launch titles for the Knuckles controllers some time in 2037 all going well.



Gosh, yes... the 3 games. I read an article recently that said.... wait for it...

CONFIRMED! Valve is STILL working on 3 games.


Get the phone lines ready, folks.

Anonymous
Not applicable

Zenbane said:

snip

Facebook-Oculus are leading the VR charge. The more successful they become, the more successful the Industry becomes and the more it thrives; which means the more the competition is able to push forward as well.

When people treat Facebook-Oculus like the enemy, as well as the Oculus community, they are really only taking a stance against Industry success; and condemning the single-driving force behind their own investments with competitor products. Kinda silly, really.

Couldn't agree more.

Greylock3491
Explorer
Lots of great predictions!

Here's another to add to the list: Second Gen VR HMDs
 
- Multiple Gen 2 models released in late 2019 and early 2020, including new models from Oculus, Vive, Apple, Samsung, Sony, Acer, Lenovo, Primax, and more.

- Gen 2 defined by 4K per eye, 180 Degree FOV, built-in stereo mic and earphones

- All support inside out tracking with four built-in cameras, two of which can also be used for AR apps.

- Some models also support external cameras for enhanced tracking in multi-user roomscale VR experiences.

- Most support downscaling and adjustable foveated rendering to allow a wide range of graphic card support, from as low as a GTX1050/980 to full res with a GTX1180.

- All support both OpenXR and OpenVR

Crazy?

Grey The Gamer
Check out my VR gameplay videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/Greylock3491

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
Love those predictions, @Greylock3491 !!