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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

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  • Atmos73Atmos73 Posts: 3,128 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018
    Well not sure how the fundamental design changed for Knuckles over that period but there was a rumour about Knuckles having the ability to change the trackpad for sticks withought the need to buy a whole new controller.
    DK2 owner - Vive owner - Pimax 8k backer - Waiting for Knuckles on Valve time.
  • Atmos73Atmos73 Posts: 3,128 Valuable Player
    The sad truth is the slow rate of VR adoption means there’s less pressure for Valve to pull the rabbit out of the hat. But let’s wait we could have some news in a few days. 
    DK2 owner - Vive owner - Pimax 8k backer - Waiting for Knuckles on Valve time.
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    Atmos73 said:

    My point is people are dreaming about Oculus tech in the future while Vive tech is here now.
    which you never did about knuckles of course... wasnt it april 2017 you predicted their launch to be... you are cheating a bit now by changing your guess..... ;)

    It's been over a year of someone "dreaming" about Knuckle tech. And I lost count of how many months the "Pimax 8K" dreaming has taken shape.

    Vive tech is here now, but it's tech that needed a bailout (from Google).
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  • bigmike20vtbigmike20vt Posts: 3,708 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018
    Atmos73 said:
    Well not sure how the fundamental design changed for Knuckles over that period but there was a rumour about Knuckles having the ability to change the trackpad for sticks withought the need to buy a whole new controller.
    for me personally that would be the biggest issue i have with the vive fixed overnight.

    Atmos73 said:
    The sad truth is the slow rate of VR adoption means there’s less pressure for Valve to pull the rabbit out of the hat. But let’s wait we could have some news in a few days. 
    So for me personally this is why valve piss me off.... they make so much money, hell I would guess they make more money in an hr by doing nothing, just selling trading cards and hats than i make in a year *again total guess i could be spouting crap* that thowing a million or 10 into getting a wiggle on on finishing the knuckles design would be a drop in the bucket.

    its like their old ips.....  they could easily hire the staff and sink the cash in to get them made, it would barely put a dent in their profits, given they have almost a monopoly on pc flat screen gaming..... and lets be honest, its risk free.... a L4D3 or dare i whisper it HL3 would easily make its money back and then some... so really there is no reason not to.

    but instead they just let people shovel utter dross on their store so card traders can trade, valve get their 30% and then the actual gems often get buried in the stink of junk.  (people like Jim Sterling help sort some of the wheat from the chaff but not everyone likes or follows youtube pundits).

    valve time is a meme all in itsself, and worst still, they tease this stuff, which makes some people hold off on getting into VR whilst they wait for this stuff, not knowing they will be waiting for god knows how long (remember steam machines?)

    Rather waiting they *could* try leading and be part of the solution of potential slower than expected uptake in VR.
    at least the likes of oculus, HTC, MS and pimax are trying to keep the ball rolling.

    right rant over... sorry i went a bit over the edge then...

    PS none of this is aimed negatively at you atmos.
    Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR :)
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018

    As more and more consumers migrate to PCVR, I'm seeing an influx of comments similar to yours in the Virtual Reality group on Facebook. Many folks who take a more neutral approach to analyzing the differences between OH and Steam do end up coming to a similar conclusion regarding Valve,

    "they just let people shovel utter dross on their store so card traders can trade, valve get their 30% and then the actual gems often get buried in the stink of junk. "

    That is a fundamental truth with the current state of SteamVR. And also the reason that Palmer funds Revive; his way of making sure the competition can actually play quality titles.

    Valve, HTC, and Microsoft are doing very little to help VR grow at all. Pimax is causing more harm than good by showing the world that VR is a great target for kickstarter scams. Google is doing some great stuff, but they always have their "Googliness" approach which tends to appeal to such a small subset of consumers. Like Google Docs (vs Microsoft Office), their Smart Phones, and Google Home (vs Alexa).

    Facebook-Oculus are leading the VR charge. The more successful they become, the more successful the Industry becomes and the more it thrives; which means the more the competition is able to push forward as well.

    When people treat Facebook-Oculus like the enemy, as well as the Oculus community, they are really only taking a stance against Industry success; and condemning the single-driving force behind their own investments with competitor products. Kinda silly, really.
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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 6,128 Valuable Player
    Don't get me started on Valve again lol :o :D

    They ARE working on three games though. And they're probably all going to be launch titles for the Knuckles controllers some time in 2037 all going well. :p
    "This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

    Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    snowdog said:
    Don't get me started on Valve again lol

    They ARE working on three games though. And they're probably all going to be launch titles for the Knuckles controllers some time in 2037 all going well.

    Gosh, yes... the 3 games. I read an article recently that said.... wait for it...

    CONFIRMED! Valve is STILL working on 3 games.


    Get the phone lines ready, folks.

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  • dburnedburne Posts: 1,872 Valuable Player
    Zenbane said:
    snip

    Facebook-Oculus are leading the VR charge. The more successful they become, the more successful the Industry becomes and the more it thrives; which means the more the competition is able to push forward as well.

    When people treat Facebook-Oculus like the enemy, as well as the Oculus community, they are really only taking a stance against Industry success; and condemning the single-driving force behind their own investments with competitor products. Kinda silly, really.
    Couldn't agree more.

    Don

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  • Greylock3491Greylock3491 Posts: 3
    NerveGear
    edited May 2018
    Lots of great predictions!

    Here's another to add to the list: Second Gen VR HMDs
     
    - Multiple Gen 2 models released in late 2019 and early 2020, including new models from Oculus, Vive, Apple, Samsung, Sony, Acer, Lenovo, Primax, and more.

    - Gen 2 defined by 4K per eye, 180 Degree FOV, built-in stereo mic and earphones

    - All support inside out tracking with four built-in cameras, two of which can also be used for AR apps.

    - Some models also support external cameras for enhanced tracking in multi-user roomscale VR experiences.

    - Most support downscaling and adjustable foveated rendering to allow a wide range of graphic card support, from as low as a GTX1050/980 to full res with a GTX1180.

    - All support both OpenXR and OpenVR

    Crazy?

    Grey The Gamer
    Check out my VR gameplay videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/Greylock3491

  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    Love those predictions, @Greylock3491 !!
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  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 4,488 Valuable Player

    If anyone's interested and hasn't read it already, Marc Laidlaw (the script writer for Half-Life 2 and the episodes), published Epistle 3 last year, a synopsis of what is assumed to be Episode 3 with the names of the characters changed to protect the innocent.

    http://www.marclaidlaw.com/epistle-3/


    I'm afraid this is all we'll see of Half-Life.

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018

    If anyone's interested and hasn't read it already, Marc Laidlaw (the script writer for Half-Life 2 and the episodes), published Epistle 3 last year, a synopsis of what is assumed to be Episode 3 with the names of the characters changed to protect the innocent.

    http://www.marclaidlaw.com/epistle-3/


    I'm afraid this is all we'll see of Half-Life.


    Reminds me of when I binged, The Borgias, on Netflix recently. When I started the binge, I had no idea that the final season (4) had never been created. So when I got to the end I felt screwed! I was hooked on the story and characters, and I needed to know how it would all end.

    After a few minutes of research, I discovered that the show had been cancelled, but a 2-part series was in the works to finish it off. But then that was cancelled as well. Luckily, the writer published the final screenplay!


    I read the entire thing in one-sitting. And all was well in the universe once again.

    But I digress. oops.
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  • GreymanGreyman Posts: 1,295
    Wintermute
    Here's a prediction.   If Oculus and HTC were to team up and produce a VRift, more than half of the discussion on this forum would disappear. :)
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    Greyman said:
    Here's a prediction.   If Oculus and HTC were to team up and produce a VRift, more than half of the discussion on this forum would disappear. :)

    hah! I like that.

    Sadly though, the truth is that such a partnership would be between Facebook and HTC. So those who remain here to constantly voice their disapproval of Facebook's VR direction would simply take the feud from "HTC vs Oculus" to "Everyone Else vs Oculus."

    We've already seen that kinda stuff happen with Apple, Sumsung, and Pimax.
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  • GreymanGreyman Posts: 1,295
    Wintermute
    such a partnership wouldn't really help the paying public too much anyway, but i just couldn't resist. :) 
  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 4,488 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018
    Greyman said:
    Here's a prediction.   If Oculus and HTC were to team up and produce a VRift, more than half of the discussion on this forum would disappear. :)

    You're probably right there @Greyman. Maybe it's the opposite of marriage where the rate of heated discussions increase at a logarithmic rate.

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    edited May 2018
    I have a new prediction,
    • When the Pimax 8K finally hits the consumer market, while the image quality will be top-notch, the tracking will have notable issues
    • Palmer Luckey will instantly start sharing photo's of himself improving the Pimax 8K tracking system
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  • LucasWiliamsLucasWiliams Posts: 6
    NerveGear
    calonos said:
    Yes, VR is trend of 2018 (like in 2016 and in 2017 :)

    Why VR is in trend?

    Despite some shortcomings, modern mobile headsets and smartphones are rather powerful to provide you with a fancy VR adventure. Moreover, figures tell for themselves: Google sold more than 10 million of Google Cardboard glasses in the first half of 2017. As for Samsung, it sold almost 800K of Gear VR headsets within the same period. 
    It means that people are interested in the further development of VR technology. Online stores represent numerous headsets and glasses. It proves the popularity of VR technology among modern users.
    Virtual reality app development ( https://bit.ly/2CFE0qK ) is thriving, and new applications are coming out daily. Their potential for development and impact on our lives and work really surprises!
  • LucasWiliamsLucasWiliams Posts: 6
    NerveGear
    calonos said:
    Yes, VR is trend of 2018 (like in 2016 and in 2017 :)

    Why VR is in trend?

    Despite some shortcomings, modern mobile headsets and smartphones are rather powerful to provide you with a fancy VR adventure. Moreover, figures tell for themselves: Google sold more than 10 million of Google Cardboard glasses in the first half of 2017. As for Samsung, it sold almost 800K of Gear VR headsets within the same period. 
    It means that people are interested in the further development of VR technology. Online stores represent numerous headsets and glasses. It proves the popularity of VR technology among modern users.
    Virtual reality app development ( https://bit.ly/2CFE0qK ) is thriving, and new applications are coming out daily. Their potential for development and impact on our lives and work really surprises!
  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    Update time!

    First off, I was  wrong on this prediction:
    "The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020."

    The Rift CV2 has not been officially announced (although the Rift has been confirmed as the Gold Standard in the Oculus Trifecta:



    I still hold my prediction that a Rift CV2 will be slated for a 2020 release, but confirmation still has not taken place.

    These 2 predictions turned out wrong as well from other posters:

    Santa Cruz did not split into 2 headsets, and the Santa Cruz did not become the Rift CV2.

    I'll read through the thread for any other predictions that can be clarified coming out of OC5.

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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    edited October 2018
    A few more prediction updates, listing who was right/wrong about what!

    @nalex66 was right:
    I predict that we won’t hear anything concrete about CV2 in 2018, but rather that they’ll keep it quiet until 6 months before release, and the announcement next year will be followed closely by pre-order sales going live.

    I also predict that at Facebook Dev Con and Oculus Connect, we will hear about new tech that Oculus is working on, which may or may not make it into CV2, but will keep the hype train rolling and fuel more speculation and predictions. 


    @snowdog was wrong:
    3) Oculus will announce the CV2 during OC5 and it'll be released some time next year.
    4) The Pimax will be delayed until March-June and won't flop completely despite being a bit crap.
    9) The Knuckles controllers will be released in the Summer and will be $149 for the pair.

    @snowdog was right:
    5) Oculus will continue to release AAA quality games this year, we'll hear about them during Facebook's F8 thingy and Facebook's event around E3.

    @nrosko was wrong:
    I predict Oculus Go will not do as well as hoped.

    @nrosko was right:
    New Vive will come out & do OK but not great, uptake of windows VR will also continue to be slow.

    @stargate88 was wrong:
    2) Pre order for Santa Cruz will be announced at OC5.

    @startgate88 was right:
    3) Demo of technology Oculus is working on for CV2 will be demo at OC5 (foveated rendering / multifocal) . But still no date announced.

    @shadowfrogger was right:
    Santa Cruz will make a appearance at Oculus connect but not be released or even get a release date.

    @shadowfrogger was half-right:
    The Rift Cv 2 will be separate from Santa Cruz, It will be announced first half of 2019 and be out before the end of 2019.


    @neocaleric was right:
    1. Oculus Go is a success on casual market. (not a massive one but it sells enough to make it profitable)
    2. VivePro does barely ok. Perhaps price point too high or not that much of a difference with current tech to justify an upgrade.

    @neocaleric was Super wrong:
    We get release date and price point for Santa Cruz at OC5. Comes Q4 2019 at $399. But here's the catch, this is actually CV2. Standalone stays on Go, CV2 connects wirelessly to a PC for best possible VR experience.


    @FlakMagnet was wrong:
    CV2 will be announced at OC5 and will be 4K per eye with built-in upscaling so scenes can still be rendered in lower resolution on older hardware.

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  • DaftnDirectDaftnDirect Posts: 4,488 Valuable Player

    Agree with nalex, no CV2 announcement in 2018 but frantic rumours about it towards the end of the year. I think there'll be a couple killer apps that'll be unique and compelling to VR, along with some good quality entertaining games.


    also

    50% of my posts will be made after the consumption of an unreasonable amount of alcohol

    99% of ***@usernamedeleted*** posts will be for the purpose of baiting


    2 of these predictions were spot on.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player

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  • stargate88stargate88 Posts: 46
    Brain Burst
    I predict:
    1) Oculus Go will be the gadget to get for xmas this year.
    2) Pre order for Santa Cruz will be announced at OC5.
    3) Demo of technology Oculus is working on for CV2 will be demo at OC5 (foveated rendering / multifocal) . But still no date announced.
    4) VR 180 will become beter and more popular for VR than 360 videos. Google VR 180 will raise the bar of the quality/price ratio of VR 180 cameras. John Carmack helping in the video pipeline. 
    5) HTC will announce an improved vive beginning of January. The 8th to be more precise ;-)

    Ok, so no follow up in this thread after all predictions to see who was right.
    I'll do mine:
    1) Oculus Go is pretty popular but was not the most popular gadget for xmas
    2) No, will need to wait for the Oculus Quest
    3) Demo was done at F8 and indeed still no date announced.
    4) VR 180 camera are way cheaper this year. YouTube now has support for VR180. John Carmack did some work on the video pipeline (dynamic 5k encoding)
    5) Nailed it!

    For 2019:
    1) Release of Oculus Quest at F8. It will have about the same success as the Oculus Go.
    2) Technical demo technologies that will probably be in the next Oculus Rift at OC6 but still no release date announced
    3) Release of a "light" Rift with software IPD adjustment and better screen for 50$ less than the current price before Christmas.
    4) After the release of Quest we'll have through the year a lot of news about games ported to Oculus Quest
    5) AR still won't be a success
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 4,262 Valuable Player
    stargate88 said:
    .....
    For 2019:
    1) Release of Oculus Quest at F8. It will have about the same success as the Oculus Go.
    2) Technical demo technologies that will probably be in the next Oculus Rift at OC6 but still no release date announced
    3) Release of a "light" Rift with software IPD adjustment and better screen for 50$ less than the current price before Christmas.
    4) After the release of Quest we'll have through the year a lot of news about games ported to Oculus Quest
    5) AR still won't be a success

    Yeah, stargate88, I think you nailed that well, I would agree with all those - even with the breaking news, I think that could be a Rift-Lite. I also agree that we can expect a world of pain listening to "what is being ported to Quest...and will it be as good as the Rift version!"!! 

    My only addition would be:

    6) Oculus VR releases sales numbers of Oculus Go at Connect 6

    ...a man can dream.  B)
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    edited February 11
    I would love to see if the Location Based Entertainment industry ever releases sales numbers. So far those numbers are null and void. In fact, if anyone tries to Search for this Industry and its Net Worth, all you get are "projections" which is on par with: Wishful Thinking.

    Here's a Forbe's article that gets it right:

    I think of location-based entertainment (LBE) for VR as an analogous step to the cyber cafes of the early days of PC gaming and PCs in general. Eventually, many of those centers ended up dying off, but some survive today in places where people can’t afford to buy or build their own PCs.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/moorinsights/2019/01/04/location-based-vr-the-next-phase-of-immersive-entertainment

    Oculus may never release sales numbers, but we don't need those numbers to realize that HomeVR is where the true innovation (and money) resides.

    This thread reminds me that I need to start a new 2019 predictions thread! I will include my predictions for LBE as well.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 13,303 Valuable Player
    Quick update on my 2018 Predictions:
    1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
    2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
    3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
    4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.

    Prediction 1 is probably a FAILED prediction. While GO estimates are reasonably over 1 million, I doubt that they hit over 2 million by the end of 2018. My best guess is that GO was at least 500,000 units short of the 2 million mark.

    Prediction 2 presumed that Oculus Quest would be released in 2018, but it was not! So that prediction FAILED. Any awards it may receive will fan in to 2019.

    Prediction 3 was definitely a FAIL. The best thing we have today are "rumors" of the Rift-S.

    Prediction 4 is debatable, but Pimax definitely failed to produce the promised 8K headset. Most people went with the 5K downgrade, and multiple reports of "dead pixels" instantly surfaced. So I'm referring to this as a GOOD prediction.

    Time to move on to 2019 !!
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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 4,245 Valuable Player
    edited February 12
    nalex66 said:
    I predict that we won’t hear anything concrete about CV2 in 2018, but rather that they’ll keep it quiet until 6 months before release, and the announcement next year will be followed closely by pre-order sales going live.

    I also predict that at Facebook Dev Con and Oculus Connect, we will hear about new tech that Oculus is working on, which may or may not make it into CV2, but will keep the hype train rolling and fuel more speculation and predictions. 
    Looking back at my modest list: No concrete news about CV2... check. I’m now expecting the Rift S announcement and preorder later this year rather than CV2. 

    New tech shown... check. Half Dome got us all excited for the future last May when they revealed it at F8. Too bad CV2 is further off than we all hoped. 

    For 2019, I predict:
    1. Quest will sell like hotcakes and be a big success. 
    2. People will moan about Oculus abandoning PCVR. 
    3. Rift S will be announced later in the year with higher res, better lenses, and Insight tracking at a very affordable price point ($300?). 
    4. People will moan about Oculus abandoning Constellation tracking. 
    5. Rift S will go on sale before year-end and will sell like hotcakes.
    6. People will moan about the lack of a major leap forward with new tech. 
    7. FB/Oculus will yet again show off some fancy new tech at their conferences. 
    8. People will moan about no solid info or release date for CV2. 

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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 4,262 Valuable Player
    nalex66 said:
    .....
    For 2019, I predict:
    1. Quest will sell like hotcakes and be a big success. 
    2. People will moan about Oculus abandoning PCVR. 
    3. Rift S will be announced later in the year with higher res, better lenses, and Insight tracking at a very affordable price point ($300?). 
    4. People will moan about Oculus abandoning Constellation tracking. 
    5. Rift S will go on sale before year-end and will sell like hotcakes.
    6. People will moan about the lack of a major leap forward with new tech. 
    7. FB/Oculus will yet again show off some fancy new tech at their conferences. 
    8. People will moan about no solid info or release date for CV2. 


    I think numbers 2,4,6 and 8 and inevitable. Along with people moaning about that, you will also have to deal with the comparisons being drawn between what is "Rift-Like experience" and how good a port of a Rift to Quest game actually is.

    I am more about the audience reaction, than the self appointed postings of the entitled few. And from the reaction to Go, it will be interesting to see how Quest is received outside of the community.

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