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Will the Rift suffer from Quest?

revmouse
Explorer
As I understand it, Rift games will be downgraded graphically so Quest can run them. My thoughts are developers will make games for Quest and just simply port them to the Rift? We've seen how that works when they ported console games to PC. No consideration to the much more powerful computing and graphic rendering of the PC as to consoles! I fear we will see Programing for the lowest common denominator.

49 REPLIES 49

kevinw729
Honored Visionary
Gives us a reasonable SteamVR snapshot - but it is estimated that about 30% of Vive users use SteamVR (the rest are using Viveport or are DOE operations), then that kinda skews the numbers. The last estimate on Rift sales came in at 890,000 though that was June.
https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

RuneSR2
Grand Champion

kevinw729 said:

Gives us a reasonable SteamVR snapshot - but it is estimated that about 30% of Vive users use SteamVR (the rest are using Viveport or are DOE operations), then that kinda skews the numbers. The last estimate on Rift sales came in at 890,000 though that was June.



You can opt out of the Steam Hardware Survey, but I'd be surprised if many do. Personally I don't use Steam VR often - but I - like most gaming enthusiasts - have a Steam account. Whenever I visit Steam, even if it's just the kids playing pancake games, I'm quite sure my hardware is monitored, and that I'll figure in the Stream VR HMD statistics, even though I rarely use Steam VR. Unless many Vive and Rift users don't have a Steam account at all or just never start up Steam (on the PC where the HMD is installed), they may of course not be part of the Steam Hardware Survey - but until otherwise proved, I'd believe that to be very rare cases.
If you can provide the source for the nearly 1 mill Rift sales, I'd greatly appreciate to see it, thanks.

Oculus Rift CV1, Valve Index & PSVR2, Asus Strix OC RTX™ 3090, i9-10900K (5.3Ghz), 32GB 3200MHz, 16TB SSD
"Ask not what VR can do for you, but what you can do for VR"

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
VivePort has struggled most of its lifetime and only recently became more stable. Plus, just because someone uses VivePort doesnt mean they uninstalled Steam. 

RuneSR2
Grand Champion

Zenbane said:

VivePort has struggled most of its lifetime and only recently became more stable. Plus, just because someone uses VivePort doesnt mean they uninstalled Steam. 



Agreed - I spent some time in Viveport the other day. Many games had no reviews - I thought that was odd. Very odd. Like Seeking Dawn:

https://www.viveport.com/apps/48338256-609f-44ba-bc6b-dec5e03b2da3

Moss has 1 review:

https://www.viveport.com/apps/c3212c58-5f00-44a4-aa09-dfd70499253c

Super Hot has zero reviews:

https://www.viveport.com/apps/75b2b271-f432-4c2c-9090-7fb1f60f0d88

I felt all alone in Viveport - like all the ships had sailed away - and suddenly I liked Oculus Home so much more 😉 To me it seems that Steam is where Vive owners meet and write game reviews. Viveport was so dead-ish that I almost felt sad.
In fact, it seems that Viveport is such a lonely place that they're even inviting Rift users in there - I thought that was a nice move - we're not that many VR users, no need to fight each other (it's my red arrow 😉

9fgjux0v8bqd.jpg

I do like that HTC still supports Win7-8 and not just Win10. Inclusion of older operating systems (and older hardware that still meet minimum system requirements) may be an important sign to increase VR adoption - and to show some generosity and support. 

But back to the numbers - I did find this overview from July 2018:

lzeg4yvkmi8f.png
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/671403/global-virtual-reality-device-shipments-by-vendor/

Here it seems that Oculus have shipped at least 1.6 mill units (combined 2017 + 2018 shipments), I'm guessing these would primarily be Rift CV1. Adding the 243.000 units sold in 2016 (see https://haptic.al/latest-virtual-reality-headset-sales-so-far-9553e42f60b5 ) then Oculus may have sold something like 2 mill CV1s (including estimated August + September 2018 sales). And PS4VR may have surpassed 4 mill including 2016 sales.

In short - we're probably not even remotely close to 10 mill sold units - and this quote may add further perspectives:

"Zuckerberg wasn’t shy about his ambitions for the Oculus Rift, stating that Facebook will need to sell 50-100 million units in order to be considered an important platform. For comparison’s sake, the PlayStation Move and the Kinect were both introduced in 2010; the Move had shipped 15 million units by the end of 2012 and the Kinect had sold 24 million units by February 2013."
https://gamerant.com/oculus-rift-sales-estimate-success-zuckerberg/

We need the Quest! 
😉 

Oculus Rift CV1, Valve Index & PSVR2, Asus Strix OC RTX™ 3090, i9-10900K (5.3Ghz), 32GB 3200MHz, 16TB SSD
"Ask not what VR can do for you, but what you can do for VR"

Morgrum
Expert Trustee
ataehpq7u8o9.jpgYes Moble gaming.........
WAAAGH!

falken76
Expert Consultant

kevinw729 said:

Gives us a reasonable SteamVR snapshot - but it is estimated that about 30% of Vive users use SteamVR (the rest are using Viveport or are DOE operations), then that kinda skews the numbers. The last estimate on Rift sales came in at 890,000 though that was June.


Isn't that terrible for a product that has been out for over 2 years?  If I were a AAA vendor, I think VR would be like Financial Kryptonite to the company.  Not even a million units to cater to?  You'd have to reduce your budget to below $50,000.  Screw exclusives, there's too low a demographic for that.  You need to sell to all the HMDs in hopes of getting an actual ROI.  I'm actually surprised we have any software at all to play with.

Anonymous
Not applicable
IMHO the Rift won't suffer too much from Quest, but will suffer somewhat prior to CV2 due to the length of time prior to CV2 and  depending on what the competition does.

Anonymous
Not applicable

kevinw729 said:


nrosko said:

There is a chance that developers will save time by producing games that perform well on both. 



Sadly not that easy!



Depends on how you do it. Any developer with any sense will optimise their game as they go. It's a lot easier but takes more discipline to do though. A great deal of developers are lazy buggers and don't optimise unless they have to, and some of these Muppets will wait until their game is finished and fails Submission to the Oculus Store because it doesn't pass the Oculus VRC (Virtual Reality Checklist).

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
A great analogy for the Rift vs Quest debate:


RuneSR2
Grand Champion


falken76 said:


 I'm actually surprised we have any software at all to play with.



I do believe we still should thank our awesome and generous Uncle Z for supporting our VR experiences 😉 But maybe we should look at the math in a broader perspective - also noticing the trend of devs going multi-VR-platform, like Seeking Dawn and In Death soon to be available for PSVR and PSVR. Like Moss. Estimated numbers of total users may be:

HTC - about 1.5 to 2 mill.
Oculus - about 2 mill 
Sony - about 4 mill.
Microsoft - about 0.5 mill.

That would put us at about 8.5 mill VR users and close to 10 mill users. (Note that this is without GearVR.) Developing a game for both PSVR and PCVR may be an attractive - and necessary - solution for developers. And may explain the need for Seeking Dawn, Moss and In Death etc to support all high-end VR platforms.

Also looking at the available info, things don't look bad for Oculus:

Estimated Sales:

2016: 250.000
2017: 700.000
First half of 2018: 900.000

The number from 2018 may be including some Go sales, but still Rift CV1 may sell more than 1 million units in 2018, possibly even 1.5 million units. That would still leave Oculus at 25% of the 10 mill, but things take time, and at least I don't see that VR adoption is slowing. Reaching about 8.5 million PSVR and PCVR users may imply that we've finally reached some sort of critical mass making it worthwhile for devs to produce the amazing content, which is the fuel to increase VR adoption.

Now, if PSVR and PCVR titles without too much hassle can be downscaled to Quest, this may further increase markets and make it even more profitable for devs to make VR content. Thus this is another way that Quest indirectly may support PCVR.

Oculus Rift CV1, Valve Index & PSVR2, Asus Strix OC RTX™ 3090, i9-10900K (5.3Ghz), 32GB 3200MHz, 16TB SSD
"Ask not what VR can do for you, but what you can do for VR"