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Will the Rift suffer from Quest?

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  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 4,547 Valuable Player
    edited October 2018
    kevinw729 said:
    Gives us a reasonable SteamVR snapshot - but it is estimated that about 30% of Vive users use SteamVR (the rest are using Viveport or are DOE operations), then that kinda skews the numbers. The last estimate on Rift sales came in at 890,000 though that was June.

    You can opt out of the Steam Hardware Survey, but I'd be surprised if many do. Personally I don't use Steam VR often - but I - like most gaming enthusiasts - have a Steam account. Whenever I visit Steam, even if it's just the kids playing pancake games, I'm quite sure my hardware is monitored, and that I'll figure in the Stream VR HMD statistics, even though I rarely use Steam VR. Unless many Vive and Rift users don't have a Steam account at all or just never start up Steam (on the PC where the HMD is installed), they may of course not be part of the Steam Hardware Survey - but until otherwise proved, I'd believe that to be very rare cases.
    If you can provide the source for the nearly 1 mill Rift sales, I'd greatly appreciate to see it, thanks.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 14,853 Valuable Player
    VivePort has struggled most of its lifetime and only recently became more stable. Plus, just because someone uses VivePort doesnt mean they uninstalled Steam. 
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  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 4,547 Valuable Player
    edited October 2018
    Zenbane said:
    VivePort has struggled most of its lifetime and only recently became more stable. Plus, just because someone uses VivePort doesnt mean they uninstalled Steam. 

    Agreed - I spent some time in Viveport the other day. Many games had no reviews - I thought that was odd. Very odd. Like Seeking Dawn:

    https://www.viveport.com/apps/48338256-609f-44ba-bc6b-dec5e03b2da3

    Moss has 1 review:

    https://www.viveport.com/apps/c3212c58-5f00-44a4-aa09-dfd70499253c

    Super Hot has zero reviews:

    https://www.viveport.com/apps/75b2b271-f432-4c2c-9090-7fb1f60f0d88

    I felt all alone in Viveport - like all the ships had sailed away - and suddenly I liked Oculus Home so much more ;-) To me it seems that Steam is where Vive owners meet and write game reviews. Viveport was so dead-ish that I almost felt sad.
    In fact, it seems that Viveport is such a lonely place that they're even inviting Rift users in there - I thought that was a nice move - we're not that many VR users, no need to fight each other (it's my red arrow ;-)



    I do like that HTC still supports Win7-8 and not just Win10. Inclusion of older operating systems (and older hardware that still meet minimum system requirements) may be an important sign to increase VR adoption - and to show some generosity and support. 

    But back to the numbers - I did find this overview from July 2018:


    Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/671403/global-virtual-reality-device-shipments-by-vendor/

    Here it seems that Oculus have shipped at least 1.6 mill units (combined 2017 + 2018 shipments), I'm guessing these would primarily be Rift CV1. Adding the 243.000 units sold in 2016 (see https://haptic.al/latest-virtual-reality-headset-sales-so-far-9553e42f60b5 ) then Oculus may have sold something like 2 mill CV1s (including estimated August + September 2018 sales). And PS4VR may have surpassed 4 mill including 2016 sales.

    In short - we're probably not even remotely close to 10 mill sold units - and this quote may add further perspectives:

    "Zuckerberg wasn’t shy about his ambitions for the Oculus Rift, stating that Facebook will need to sell 50-100 million units in order to be considered an important platform. For comparison’s sake, the PlayStation Move and the Kinect were both introduced in 2010; the Move had shipped 15 million units by the end of 2012 and the Kinect had sold 24 million units by February 2013."
    https://gamerant.com/oculus-rift-sales-estimate-success-zuckerberg/

    We need the Quest!  ;) 
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  • MorgrumMorgrum Posts: 1,670 Valuable Player
    edited October 2018
    Yes Moble gaming.........
    WAAAGH!
  • falken76falken76 Posts: 2,895 Valuable Player
    kevinw729 said:
    Gives us a reasonable SteamVR snapshot - but it is estimated that about 30% of Vive users use SteamVR (the rest are using Viveport or are DOE operations), then that kinda skews the numbers. The last estimate on Rift sales came in at 890,000 though that was June.
    Isn't that terrible for a product that has been out for over 2 years?  If I were a AAA vendor, I think VR would be like Financial Kryptonite to the company.  Not even a million units to cater to?  You'd have to reduce your budget to below $50,000.  Screw exclusives, there's too low a demographic for that.  You need to sell to all the HMDs in hopes of getting an actual ROI.  I'm actually surprised we have any software at all to play with.
  • dburnedburne Posts: 3,058 Valuable Player
    IMHO the Rift won't suffer too much from Quest, but will suffer somewhat prior to CV2 due to the length of time prior to CV2 and  depending on what the competition does.
    Don

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  • snowdogsnowdog Posts: 7,281 Valuable Player
    kevinw729 said:
    nrosko said:
    There is a chance that developers will save time by producing games that perform well on both. 

    Sadly not that easy!

    Depends on how you do it. Any developer with any sense will optimise their game as they go. It's a lot easier but takes more discipline to do though. A great deal of developers are lazy buggers and don't optimise unless they have to, and some of these Muppets will wait until their game is finished and fails Submission to the Oculus Store because it doesn't pass the Oculus VRC (Virtual Reality Checklist).
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 14,853 Valuable Player
    A great analogy for the Rift vs Quest debate:



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  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 4,547 Valuable Player
    falken76 said:
     I'm actually surprised we have any software at all to play with.

    I do believe we still should thank our awesome and generous Uncle Z for supporting our VR experiences ;-) But maybe we should look at the math in a broader perspective - also noticing the trend of devs going multi-VR-platform, like Seeking Dawn and In Death soon to be available for PSVR and PSVR. Like Moss. Estimated numbers of total users may be:

    HTC - about 1.5 to 2 mill.
    Oculus - about 2 mill 
    Sony - about 4 mill.
    Microsoft - about 0.5 mill.

    That would put us at about 8.5 mill VR users and close to 10 mill users. (Note that this is without GearVR.) Developing a game for both PSVR and PCVR may be an attractive - and necessary - solution for developers. And may explain the need for Seeking Dawn, Moss and In Death etc to support all high-end VR platforms.

    Also looking at the available info, things don't look bad for Oculus:

    Estimated Sales:

    2016: 250.000
    2017: 700.000
    First half of 2018: 900.000

    The number from 2018 may be including some Go sales, but still Rift CV1 may sell more than 1 million units in 2018, possibly even 1.5 million units. That would still leave Oculus at 25% of the 10 mill, but things take time, and at least I don't see that VR adoption is slowing. Reaching about 8.5 million PSVR and PCVR users may imply that we've finally reached some sort of critical mass making it worthwhile for devs to produce the amazing content, which is the fuel to increase VR adoption.

    Now, if PSVR and PCVR titles without too much hassle can be downscaled to Quest, this may further increase markets and make it even more profitable for devs to make VR content. Thus this is another way that Quest indirectly may support PCVR.
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 4,973 Valuable Player
    falken76 said:
    .....
    Isn't that terrible for a product that has been out for over 2 years?  If I were a AAA vendor, I think VR would be like Financial Kryptonite to the company.  Not even a million units to cater to?  You'd have to reduce your budget to below $50,000.  Screw exclusives, there's too low a demographic for that.  You need to sell to all the HMDs in hopes of getting an actual ROI.  I'm actually surprised we have any software at all to play with.

    I agree with you - absolute niche offering, from what was promised as a mainstream business. Just think of all the indies that supported DK2 and raised investment. They have seen negligible sales (if lucky) and no means to pay back the investment. A dominoes of developers is happening in the sector at present, more developments will be seen at GDC 2019.

    You hit the nail on the head why we were against all "exclusives" at this early stage of this latest phase in VR adoption. The garden was just too small to be walled off, and the whole issue of not being platform agnostic has hampered much of the green shoots that we saw in 2016.
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 4,973 Valuable Player
    RuneSR2 said:
    .....
    Estimated numbers of total users may be:

    HTC - about 1.5 to 2 mill.
    Oculus - about 2 mill 
    Sony - about 4 mill.
    Microsoft - about 0.5 mill.

    That would put us at about 8.5 mill VR users and close to 10 mill users. (Note that this is without GearVR.) 
    .....

    Wow @RuneSR2 - you really think Oculus at about 2 mill???
    Would we have not seen that reflected in sales - or would we not have seen OVR shouting from the tree-top they were at this point? Most conservative estimations place CV1 sales at 890,000 to 990,000. 

    Rumor that HTC was about to reveal their 2mil sales (rolling in China and West sales and all their DOE business), but not sure about the rest.
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  • LZoltowskiLZoltowski Posts: 6,774 Volunteer Moderator
    kevinw729 said:
    RuneSR2 said:
    .....
    Estimated numbers of total users may be:

    HTC - about 1.5 to 2 mill.
    Oculus - about 2 mill 
    Sony - about 4 mill.
    Microsoft - about 0.5 mill.

    That would put us at about 8.5 mill VR users and close to 10 mill users. (Note that this is without GearVR.) 
    .....

    Wow @RuneSR2 - you really think Oculus at about 2 mill???
    Would we have not seen that reflected in sales - or would we not have seen OVR shouting from the tree-top they were at this point? Most conservative estimations place CV1 sales at 890,000 to 990,000. 

    Rumor that HTC was about to reveal their 2mil sales (rolling in China and West sales and all their DOE business), but not sure about the rest.
    Have a look at a few messages earlier on up on how he arrived at that.
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 14,853 Valuable Player
    I think 2 million is a fair assessment (e.g. "guess") of Oculus Rift sales as a total summation. Although even that is still very low by industry standards.
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  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 4,547 Valuable Player
    RuneSR2 said:

    Reaching about 8.5 million PSVR and PCVR users may imply that we've finally reached some sort of critical mass making it worthwhile for devs to produce the amazing content, which is the fuel to increase VR adoption.

    Just saw this - even if about 8.5 mill PSVR, MS MR, HTC Vive (Pro) and Rift HMDs may have been sold in total, all owners may not be active - like described here:

    "The important thing is we need to see the metrics for active users of VR. A lot of people bought headsets just to try it out. How many of those people are active? We found that in terms of our data, a lot of users weren’t."
    Source: https://wccftech.com/ccp-expected-vr-to-be-twice-as-big/

    Sad to read that sales of EVE Valkyrie didn't meet expectations at all - then again, the game did have a very weak singleplayer part, not sure if the devs disappointment can be stretched to VR games in general. 

    Now I do wonder how many active VR users we are - that is, users who frequently buy games and apps to support the devs... 10 mill active high-end HMD users may be something quite different from 10 mill sold high-end HMDs... 
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 4,973 Valuable Player
    LZoltowski said:
    .....
    Have a look at a few messages earlier on up on how he arrived at that.

    No I am sorry @LZoltowski  - I do not think you can play with the numbers enough to propose a 2m penetration - and don't even try the argument of adding GearVR users to the number as we were only talking Oculus CV1!

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  • ohgrantohgrant Posts: 278
    Nexus 6
     I would have to say no but possibly yes to the original question. I was quite impressed with the quality of the games in my gear VR. Some of those games, that was ported to CV!, look much better with dedicated graphics and desktop CPU no doubt, but can't take away that they still looked great in Gear VR. Quest is a different beast, built and optimized to do nothing but VR. With all the features it has, compared to PlayStation. Quest might be poised to take the market by storm. The cheapest way to get into serious VR, no console or computer needed. I think it possible that, if Quest is as good as it sounds, it could not only affect the PC Rift customer base but more PlayStation VR customers will be looking at them. 
    In that scenario, I think it possible we will see a difference in what is offered to us only because Oculus will be concentrating on the mobile war. A win for us in the long run.          
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  • ZenbaneZenbane Posts: 14,853 Valuable Player
    edited October 2018
    There are multiple sources that put the Oculus Rift CV1 near 2 million sales. Here's another source:
    • 2017 Estimates = 700,000 units
    • 2018 Estimates = 900,00 units

    We are near 2-million without even counting the 2016 sales, which most predictions were between 200,000 and 400,000. This same data provider (Statista) puts Rift 2016 sales at 243,000. So that's a total estimate of over 1,800,000 Rift CV1 units sold to-date.

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  • LuluViBritanniaLuluViBritannia Posts: 503
    Neo
    Isn't that terrible for a product that has been out for over 2 years?

    Everything is relative. It is slow if you compare it to phone or console sales. But phones and consoles have been here for decades. Just check the number of cellphones sold during the first two years after it was created. It wasn't that much.

    No new tech becomes mainstream in two years. Especially today, when people take it for granted that any new tech should sell dozens of million units per year.
    Current VR results imo:
    - Great small apps. Great ports of bigger games.
    - Great VR-specific features. Not enough showcased!!!
    - Too many actors in the industry, the market is totally broken.


    My hopes for VR next gen:

    - Better ratio between visual quality and power needs. No more godrays and less SDE.
    - Full Body Tracking.


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  • KlodsBrikKlodsBrik Posts: 1,201
    Wintermute
    edited October 2018
    Not to mention that prices of hardware have been against early adopters who wanted to get a taste of what VR is, but then realized they would have had to spend as much, if not more to upgrade their rig as well.
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