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The VR Predictions Thread of 2019

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
The first predictions thread was quite fun! There were few who got it right, and plenty of us (including myself) who got a whole bunch of stuff wrong. But it was quite entertaining watching the year unfold and witnessing each prediction either come to fruition or fall flat on its face.

Now time to move on to 2019. Here are my predictions:
  • Oculus Quest will receive a VR gadget of the year award.
  • Technical details of Rift-S will finally be revealed, and full 360 hand-tracking will be supported.
  • Rift-S will be backwards compatible with the existing Rift CV1 Oculus sensors.
  • Location-based Entertainment will finally gain mainstream attention, however, it will be Home-based VR titles that make it appealing (e.g. Beat Saber).
  • Despite growing appeal, Location-based Entertainment businesses will continue to struggle financially.
I'm tempted to add a prediction where Facebook and Oculus will be responsible for helping LBE avoid financial distress, but my gut tells me that this won't happen until the year 2020 when Oculus Studios is able with the creation of custom VR Arcade software experiences (which is sorely needed in the LBE Industry).

My LBE predictions are based on article provide unbiased factual insight, such as this:
Many who rushed to jump on the VR bandwagon and invested heavily in opening VR arcades with the debut of consumer headsets in 2016 have since gone out of business. Some industry insiders, however, remain enthusiastic about Location-Based VR Entertainment for VR and see the market as entering a more sustainable phase.

Overall, I feel that 2019 will be a strong year for Oculus, both with the release of Quest and the announcement of Rift-S. Not to mention all the custom VR Software that they have in store for us. Coming out of my first-hand experience with PAX South, I anticipate a heft amount of hours spent in VR this year!
20 REPLIES 20

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

Mradr said:
At best though it wont be any better than what the Vive Pro has


So you predict that the Vive Pro will have better visuals than the new Rift-S? Not surprised to hear you say that, but definitely looking forward to holding you to that prediction!
B)

The rest of your predictions are equally fun:
  1. Quest will sell triple the
    device count than CV1 did its full life span (meaning mom and pop will
    buy it for little jim and sally)
  2. Rift S tracking system will not
    be 100% backwards compatible with the old tracking system. The headset
    will lose its ability to be track with the old system leaving the
    controllers only to be track after an update is release further down the
    line.
  3. Rift S will be a 1.5 upgrade. It will feature better
    lenses from the GO or slightly improve version of those, a bump in
    resolution using fast switch LCD screens matching or less than the Vive
    Pro, Maybe a bump in FOV from 100 to 120-140, using AI they will have
    figure out how to do fix FOV + focal point viewing, insideout tracking
    with maybe another one or two cameras on the side or back to cover more
    area of tracking.
  4. Constellation tracking will slowly die off as
    the number of people stop reporting tracking issues and hardware
    problems as they upgrade to Rift S.
  5. People that want to keep the
    old tracking system will slowly give in then switch sides in how inside
    out tracking will be better than the old tracking system.

360 hand-tracking is definitely all the rage at the start of 2019. FYI, I sent a tweet to Mr. Rubin asking for clarification. But doubtful that we'll get an official response...

Anonymous
Not applicable

Zenbane said:


Mradr said:
At best though it wont be any better than what the Vive Pro has


So you predict that the Vive Pro will have better visuals than the new Rift-S? Not surprised to hear you say that, but definitely looking forward to holding you to that prediction!


I base that prediction off wanting to keep price low, resolution hardware demand low, and wanting to expand their headsets out while they push back the CV2. Possible they could bump more if they increase to something like 599 or 699, but over all they will either want to keep between or no higher than Vive Pro. Then you have the fact if they do increase FOV - it's going to spread the pixel over degree out more - there for - in doing so they will shrink back down meaning over all visually - you get increase field of view - but the quality of the over all visual will not be as good.

Without eye tracking + FOVA + Focal Point - it'll be hard to do something like 4k by 4k plus demand 20s NV cards though there are some tricks I am sure they could make work without the need for a 20s card. It just depends on if they want to do the work around or just wait/force a hardware dependent requirement. Most likely they will just use what they do save to help lower the hardware requirement to get into VR. This frees up other resources for games to use later on instead.

Anonymous
Not applicable
It'll look better than the Vive Pro because it'll have far superior lenses. Releasing the Vive Pro with the same lenses that the Vive has was a TERRIBLE decision.

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

Mradr said:
I base that prediction off wanting to keep price low, resolution hardware demand low, and wanting to expand their headsets out while they push back the CV2. Possible they could bump more if they increase to something like 599 or 699, but over all they will either want to keep between or no higher than Vive Pro. Then you have the fact if they do increase FOV - it's going to spread the pixel over degree out more - there for - in doing so they will shrink back down meaning over all visually - you get increase field of view - but the quality of the over all visual will not be as good.

Without eye tracking + FOVA + Focal Point - it'll be hard to do something like 4k by 4k plus demand 20s NV cards though there are some tricks I am sure they could make work without the need for a 20s card. It just depends on if they want to do the work around or just wait/force a hardware dependent requirement. Most likely they will just use what they do save to help lower the hardware requirement to get into VR. This frees up other resources for games to use later on instead.



Fair points but keep in mind that the current Vive Pro still contains a healthy dose of SDE, especially when compared to something like the Odyssey+. So I would put my money on the Rift-S being more on par with Odyssey+ as opposed to resting alongside the Vive Pro. Especially considering that the Oculus GO lenses are so damn good.

Anonymous
Not applicable

Zenbane said:


Fair points but keep in mind that the current Vive Pro still contains a healthy dose of SDE, especially when compared to something like the Odyssey+. So I would put my money on the Rift-S being more on par with Odyssey+ as opposed to resting alongside the Vive Pro. Especially considering that the Oculus GO lenses are so damn good.


Yea, maybe I should be more clear - I am just referring to the pixel to pixel/resolution. How the over all image looks is a different story that will be hard to discuss because everyone will see something different much like it was for the Vive vs CV1. With that said - from a pur math point of view - resolution alone wont be much higher than what the Vive Pro offers right now is what I mean. Lenses will improve how it looks from there as far as SDE, chroma, the warping effect, etc. Though do keep in mind - a lens can only do so much - at some point if there isn't enough pixel information - then there just isn't enough pixel information for the lense to do anything with it. SDE isn't actually link to resolution - but pixels are used to fill in gaps. 

PluckeyOne
Protege

Zenbane said:

The first predictions thread was quite fun! There were few who got it right, and plenty of us (including myself) who got a whole bunch of stuff wrong. But it was quite entertaining watching the year unfold and witnessing each prediction either come to fruition or fall flat on its face.

Now time to move on to 2019. Here are my predictions:
  • Oculus Quest will receive a VR gadget of the year award.
  • Technical details of Rift-S will finally be revealed, and full 360 hand-tracking will be supported.
  • Rift-S will be backwards compatible with the existing Rift CV1 Oculus sensors.
  • Location-based Entertainment will finally gain mainstream attention, however, it will be Home-based VR titles that make it appealing (e.g. Beat Saber).
  • Despite growing appeal, Location-based Entertainment businesses will continue to struggle financially.
I'm tempted to add a prediction where Facebook and Oculus will be responsible for helping LBE avoid financial distress

I anticipate a heft amount of hours spent in VR this year!


Interesting observations. 

I walked through an arcade the other day and there were 4 VR stations all linked. All playing Mario Cart using Vive Pros and those VR pucks. 4 guys looks like they were about to have a smashing time. 

I think you should digest your other predictions as I enjoy reading your posts. 

Care to make some Valve related predictions @PluckeyOne? or maybe a Pimax prediction? or maybe it's the LBE comments that had you particularly interested in Zenbane's post?

Anonymous
Not applicable
Woa - so did I win xD? I was mostly right with my prediction :pensive:
No increase in FOV, used fast switch LCD, 2k screens, Quest seems to be the big seller/push, Constellation tracking problems slowly died off - people telling others to upgrade, people that like the old tracking did upgrade over time, and Rift S tracking system will not be 100% backwards compatible with the old tracking system. We're also seeing AI being used for some things in the coming future and special designs for fov improvements. 

Zenbane
MVP
MVP


I walked through an arcade the other day and there were 4 VR stations all linked. All playing Mario Cart using Vive Pros and those VR pucks. 4 guys looks like they were about to have a smashing time.



"About to have" is not the same as "having." I walk through arcades regularly as well since my son loves going there. The VR stations are usually empty. People tend to spend more time with the group activities, like bowling, lazer tag, etc.

Also, Mario Cart is a vanilla title ported over, which proves my prediction correct when I said this:
"it will be Home-based VR titles that make it appealing (e.g. Beat Saber)"

I had forgotten all about this thread and my predictions. So thanks for confirming that I was correct!
😉

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

Mradr said:

Woa - so did I win xD? I was mostly right with my prediction :pensive:
No increase in FOV, used fast switch LCD, 2k screens, Quest seems to be the big seller/push, Constellation tracking problems slowly died off - people telling others to upgrade, people that like the old tracking did upgrade over time, and Rift S tracking system will not be 100% backwards compatible with the old tracking system. We're also seeing AI being used for some things in the coming future and special designs for fov improvements. 



Yeah, I think you're the one poster who got the highest percentage of your predictions correct.

WINNER!