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Were the critics right: Is VR just a Fad/Gimmick?

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
I have spent more time "lurking" instead of "contributing" to VR discussions this year, between this forum, reddit, and the Facebook groups. I have found myself wanting to do more observing and reflecting in 2019, as opposed to the active contributions I was making from 2016-2019. And a big part of that is because the overall VR landscape seems rather stale in comparison to the amazing strides made during the first 3 years of the CV1 era (speaking to both the original Rift and Vive here).

In 2018, it really felt like things were going to explode from some galactic battle of the VR Giants with everyone promising to "move VR forward" and "set a new standard." But as far as I can tell, every competitor has failed at truly moving the needle beyond the hype coming out of the 2016 CV1 releases:
  • Apple still hasn't done anything meaningful in VR.
  • Amazon has only dabbled in VR with some supportive Software.
  • The Pimax 8K proved to be little more than an over-hyped kickstarter (this HMD is now selling in droves on E-bay).
  • Valve's Index HMD proved to be "more of the same" and Valve Knuckles completely failed to meet the 2+ years of hype leading up to it. While I would agree that the Index is, overall, the best PCVR offering on the market today, this is only true because of the failures of its competitors; not because of the advances Index is making.
  • HTC Vive Pro is all but obsolete. Rarely, if ever advertised, and now all attention is being pointed towards the next "dangling carrot," the Vive Cosmos.
  • Facebook and Oculus failed to deliver a true Rift CV2, and their biggest claim to fame - the Oculus Quest - continues to offer a very limited software Library, much of which mimics what Rift users can already experience.
  • After all these years, the Steam Hardware Survey still shows Oculus and Vive dominating the charts, with a minuscule number of competitors dangling at the bottom.
  • The HP Reverb had great potential (even I considered buying one) but fell short in multiple areas compared to current offerings and general industry standards.
  • Microsoft continues to dabble between Mixed Reality and HoloLens; with no flagship hardware nor a noteworthy software platform.
  • PlayStationVR continues to linger, with little confirmation about a Gen 2 VR Kit; leaving communities to debate over interpretations of hidden signs of the truth.
  • On the mobile front, GearVR and GO are slowly becoming vaporware. While Hulu drops support for Google DayDream.

These are my own personal observations based on my own sentiment and that of which I've observed across multiple VR communities. I will point out that the purpose of this thread is not to fuel a debate between VR products or competitors. I am putting every VR organization, sector, and product on the chopping block evenhandedly. In a nutshell: they are all failing to meet expectations in 2019.

There are a few other factors that has caused me to raise my concern about VR turning in to a Fad/Gimmick:
  • AAA Software is still nowhere to be found. With VR, at best we get "AAA-like" experiences. Even AAA games like Skyrim and Fallout turn out to be "AAA-like" in VR. This lack of true AAA investment seems telling since we are nearly 4 years in to mainstream VR with no one feeling compelled to make the necessary investments to move out of "AAA-like" experiences. In fact, we are still getting Early Access software experiences on both Steam and the Oculus Store.
  • Facility-based VR is becoming talked about more and more, which feels like a sign that VR is moving in to the fad/gimmick phase of modern arcades and internet cafes. I tried one of these VR "arcade rides" recently, and I can confirm that the experience is highly lackluster and does more to move VR in to a "gimmick" than a sophisticated platform. As a comparison, once upon a time we could play the Street Fighter arcade with Punching Pads instead of standard buttons. As we can clearly see... punching a pad never became a standard and was short lived. And if you see a game today that uses Punching Pads... you understand that this is a temporary fad/gimmick. Machines that move or vibrate while putting players in a VR HMD are the exact same thing.
  • Augmented Reality is becoming a hotter topic than Virtual Reality this year. We have HoloLens 2 and Microsoft's move in to the Military Sector. Recently, 5-Nights at Freddy's released their AR trailer. On top of which, most of the predictions about the upcoming Oculus Conference revolve around Augmented Reality (i.e. people are feeling that AR will get a big push and stronger focus).
Again, these are just my observations and general sentiments to help give insight in to why I feel that asking the question about VR's fad/gimmick potential seems pertinent at this moment in time.

To give some thought as to why I am choosing the words "fad" and "gimmick," here is a quick view at outside sources:
An article from 2018
Is Virtual Reality a Fad or Is it the Future?
http://www.workspace.digital/is-virtual-reality-a-fad-or-is-it-the-future/

A blog from 2019
Virtual Reality is officially a fad. I am out
https://skarredghost.com/2019/04/01/virtual-reality-is-officially-a-fad-i-am-out/

An article from 2016
https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2016/10/15/virtual-reality-is-just-an-over-priced-gimmick/#484...
Virtual Reality Is Just An Over-Priced Gimmick, Nothing More

A recent article from 2019
Virtual Reality: The Future of Entertainment or Gimmick of the Wealthy?
https://www.dailyamerican.com/entertainment/highschoolhighlights/virtual-reality-the-future-of-enter...

Each of these articles, both old and new, point out similar factors that I've outlined here.

So... do you think that VR is still "the future"? Or do you think that VR did in fact turn out to be a Fad/Gimmick??
226 REPLIES 226

Zenbane
MVP
MVP



Zenbane said:
VR may be a gimmick or a fad to you and to zenbane but to me  i

I never said that I believe it is a fad or gimmick. My first post makes the topic quite clear. Some people in this thread get it, others... not so much!



you didnt? Some one hacked your account then
There are a few other factors that has caused me to raise my concern about VR turning in to a Fad/Gimmick:



No, you just are having some trouble with sentencing.
It is entirely possible for me to raise my concern about VR turning in to a fad/gimmick without me believing that VR is a fad or gimmick. I do not believe that VR is a fad or gimmick, however, I am concerned that competitors may be turning in to one.
It's a simple concept.

imo you are coming across as very dishonest in this thread mate.

You are welcome to formulate such an opinion, it really doesn't interest me though. This topic is about VR, not about what you think of me personally. Afterall, you are the one who started rather dishonest with yourself right?

I said VR is the future... however i dont agree with that

😄


Also, I have made my role clear: I am playing Devil's Advocate. Which means that I am intentionally providing contrary arguments for the sake of discussion. If you think that makes me "dishonest" then perhaps you just need to familiarize yourself with what "Devil's Advocate" means:
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=devil%27s%20advocate


It seems to me if someone disagrees with your post your response is to
belittle their view and if that does not work belittle them directly
with huge doses of sarcasm

I disagree. I am finding that when people disagree with me, that they try to address me personally instead of the issue. Which you are doing now. If you have a problem with me personally, then perhaps you should avoid this thread.

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

An Interview with Oculus' Jason Rubin was released today, and it hits on some of the things I have mentioned. Good timing! lol

the VR business feels like it’s ready to begin
putting more effort into games that don’t require high-end visuals and games that appeal to broader demographics.

Oculus’ Studios publishing group has been shifting from what Rubin used to call an “unpublisher” that would “seed money to whoever had an idea and see what stuck” into an organization that takes bigger bets and is more cautious, similar to a traditional console or PC publisher.

Mix in a strategy of targeting “global, top-tier IP,” a plan to sign continually larger projects that will eventually reach the budgets of AAA console games, a focus on mixed reality streaming and new types of social experiences, and Oculus sees a path to get more customers in the door.



But the quotes above really align with the concerns I tried to raise in this conversation. If Rubin feels that now, after all these years, that the VR business is ready to begin... then that explains why even in 2019 critics are still asking the same questions about VR being a fad or gimmick.

Early in this conversation, I rejected the notion that the answer to any of these concerns is just to get another headset (or upgrade the graphics card), and I feel that Rubin affirms this by noting the extra effort being put in to VR experiences that do NOT require high-end visuals.

The current shift from publishing studios indicates that from 2016-2019 most people were just "guessing" with VR; pure trial and error. Whereas now there is a stronger strategy and roadmap forward.

And of course, there are finally real plans to get true AAA titles in the works.

Overall, I find that Rubin's interview really helps align with these concerns - instead of just trying to ignore or dismiss them outright - and provides a confident path forward. I am slightly more excited to hear more at the upcoming Oculus conference.

inovator
Consultant

Zenbane said:


An Interview with Oculus' Jason Rubin was released today, and it hits on some of the things I have mentioned. Good timing! lol

the VR business feels like it’s ready to begin
putting more effort into games that don’t require high-end visuals and games that appeal to broader demographics.

Oculus’ Studios publishing group has been shifting from what Rubin used to call an “unpublisher” that would “seed money to whoever had an idea and see what stuck” into an organization that takes bigger bets and is more cautious, similar to a traditional console or PC publisher.

Mix in a strategy of targeting “global, top-tier IP,” a plan to sign continually larger projects that will eventually reach the budgets of AAA console games, a focus on mixed reality streaming and new types of social experiences, and Oculus sees a path to get more customers in the door.



But the quotes above really align with the concerns I tried to raise in this conversation. If Rubin feels that now, after all these years, that the VR business is ready to begin... then that explains why even in 2019 critics are still asking the same questions about VR being a fad or gimmick.

Early in this conversation, I rejected the notion that the answer to any of these concerns is just to get another headset (or upgrade the graphics card), and I feel that Rubin affirms this by noting the extra effort being put in to VR experiences that do NOT require high-end visuals.

The current shift from publishing studios indicates that from 2016-2019 most people were just "guessing" with VR; pure trial and error. Whereas now there is a stronger strategy and roadmap forward.

And of course, there are finally real plans to get true AAA titles in the works.

Overall, I find that Rubin's interview really helps align with these concerns - instead of just trying to ignore or dismiss them outright - and provides a confident path forward. I am slightly more excited to hear more at the upcoming Oculus conference.


Thanks I'm going to listen to that interview. 
3 of the things members are saying is price being a problem, hardware development and aaa games. Borrowing from what palmer said. If you gave everyone a free headset vr still wouldn't go mainstream at this time. I'll go a step further  If the hardware was as light as sunglasses it wouldn't go mainstream without enough aaa games and experiences 

Morgrum
Expert Trustee

GAH all of ya'll circular arguments or he said she said blehhhhhh! Make it stop!

Image result for stop sign

WAAAGH!

MarZeloFdez
Protege
Virtual reality is the future, but there is still a long way to go.

CEO y Fundador 
  

Anonymous
Not applicable

Zenbane said:


An Interview with Oculus' Jason Rubin was released today, and it hits on some of the things I have mentioned. Good timing! lol

the VR business feels like it’s ready to begin
putting more effort into games that don’t require high-end visuals and games that appeal to broader demographics.

Oculus’ Studios publishing group has been shifting from what Rubin used to call an “unpublisher” that would “seed money to whoever had an idea and see what stuck” into an organization that takes bigger bets and is more cautious, similar to a traditional console or PC publisher.

Mix in a strategy of targeting “global, top-tier IP,” a plan to sign continually larger projects that will eventually reach the budgets of AAA console games, a focus on mixed reality streaming and new types of social experiences, and Oculus sees a path to get more customers in the door.



That still wont matter though if - only - Oculus is the only headset supported for these titles and not the total VR community for PCVR. Granted there is always a side ways of making anything work - but without native supported from the store front - what's the point? They need to open up their store more if PCVR as a total is going to grow and they need VR as a total to grow if they wish to grow as well.


After reading it a bit more - It's mostly just talks that we already had talk about here. That we need more content - that it takes time to grow the proper channels - that Quest is most likely the future (removes the PC). Really I don't see anything "new" here as far as "guess".

Some of what they talk about is - self control content to match their narrative point of view. With some of the questions I feel didn't ask about the over all plan for their platform such as opening the store to others for example in terms of hardware support - software support - and creative designs that push for both. The whole thing lacks some real decision as a whole.

"""[...]putting more effort into games that don’t require high-end visuals and games that appeal to broader demographics[...]"""
Yea - but when your hardware doesn't offer that - aka nothing above the 450 mark - of course you wouldn't aim for high end visuals, fast moving content, or anything that might make the hardware look bad to scale. You would want to aim for content that matches your hardware and push slowly for the hardware limits as the hardware gets better understood by software teams no different than consoles. The down side to this is your content is limited - much to some reviews complaints about the Rift S is - with its limited 80Hz refresh rates and fast moving items causing some choppiness even though the hardware running is more than able to run it at 90Hz without the choppiness from other companies.

I dont know - the whole thing leaves much for open talks and doesn't feel like it did much of anything really. More or less what I got is that:
1) Quest/VR is going to move to streaming services (saw this coming)
2) VR in total might be moving to stream services - starting off as a hybrid - then moving to full on stream to the hardware (witch is what we are already seeing with consoles - so nothing totally new here).
3) They are working with partners to get more content and bring higher end content out
4) They are going to aim for content that matches their hardware and value instead of the market value (nothing wrong with this - just what they are doing - no different than consoles)
5) That Quest seems to be the future for VR and will be the focus going forward for content. That they might even release Quest 2 sooner than og predicted to keep pushing the hardware forward for new content faster.

SkScotchegg
Expert Trustee

Morgrum said:

GAH all of ya'll circular arguments or he said she said blehhhhhh! Make it stop!




Zenbane made this thread...we all know he like's a good debate! lol  😛
UK: England - Leeds - - RTX 2080 - Rift CV1 & Rift S - Make love, not war - See you in the Oasis!

Anonymous
Not applicable

RattyUK said:

VR is amazing, even with the limited HMD's we have today, but we have the circular 'not enough HMD's adopted to make AAA deveopers confident Vs No AAA software to sell HMD's' which doesn't seem to want to go away any time soon.

Maybe Nvidia/AMD/Intel will bring out a blockbuster GPU that doesn't put off consumers with less disposable income and HMD's get Foveated rendering and eye tracking/good resolution at an attractive price (and untethered gets good hardware too) so takeup increases to a level that developers would accept...

As it stands, I like what we have today, even if PCVR is certainly not a budget option...  but wouldn't it be nice if....



That's all going to happen sooner rather than later. In 5-10 years we'll have decent quality headsets available to buy for under a hundred quid or dollars and every home will have one.

I've already mentioned a few times the three stages of mainstream VR adoption: Enthusiast Gamer VR Adoption, Mainstream Gamer VR Adoption and Mainstream Consumer VR Adoption.

We're only at the first stage so far. The second stage will start when Microsoft adopt VR for their consoles and that third, and most important stage, will start when VR headsets can be bought for under 100 notes and there is plenty of content available for mainstream consumers such as films, TV, sports events and concerts to watch in VR.

I don't think anyone in their right mind was expecting every household to have a headset in their home by now, it's going to take time for this to happen.

Anonymous
Not applicable

snowdog said:


RattyUK said:

VR is amazing, even with the limited HMD's we have today, but we have the circular 'not enough HMD's adopted to make AAA deveopers confident Vs No AAA software to sell HMD's' which doesn't seem to want to go away any time soon.

Maybe Nvidia/AMD/Intel will bring out a blockbuster GPU that doesn't put off consumers with less disposable income and HMD's get Foveated rendering and eye tracking/good resolution at an attractive price (and untethered gets good hardware too) so takeup increases to a level that developers would accept...

As it stands, I like what we have today, even if PCVR is certainly not a budget option...  but wouldn't it be nice if....



That's all going to happen sooner rather than later. In 5-10 years we'll have decent quality headsets available to buy for under a hundred quid or dollars and every home will have one.

I've already mentioned a few times the three stages of mainstream VR adoption: Enthusiast Gamer VR Adoption, Mainstream Gamer VR Adoption and Mainstream Consumer VR Adoption.

We're only at the first stage so far. The second stage will start when Microsoft adopt VR for their consoles and that third, and most important stage, will start when VR headsets can be bought for under 100 notes and there is plenty of content available for mainstream consumers such as films, TV, sports events and concerts to watch in VR.

I don't think anyone in their right mind was expecting every household to have a headset in their home by now, it's going to take time for this to happen.


Intels/AMD new GPU coming out will be the aim for that. AMD already supports an APU - but lacks some key features that makes use of eye tracking and FOVA rendering such as VRS. Intel on the other hand hasn't release or change their GPU setup in over 15 years. In 2020 however - both seem to be changing that and upgrading to support quite a few new features that will allow for some big improves at less than 100-200$ that supports both GPU and CPU needs for console like gaming. There for could mean we see laptops and desktop in the sub $500 group be able to run Rift S/CV1 with ps4-5 performance costing as much as a PSVR total system cost.

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

snowdog said:
I don't think anyone in their right mind was expecting every household to have a headset in their home by now, it's going to take time for this to happen.


Maybe not every household, since that is quite extreme. Not even the computer or smart phone has entered every single household on the planet. So a bit of a moot point there.

But in a realistic sense, I did think that at least 100,000 million households would have some sort of VR Headset by 2019. I base that on the fact that they all became so affordable between Mobile and Console (specifically, anyone who already owned a PS4).

I am surprised that VR HMD's continue to sell in the "thousands" instead of the "millions." Well, I guess based on the observations I'm making in this thread... I'm not all that surprised anymore!

As you said, we are only in the first stage so far. Looking forward to watching stage 2 begin! Any day now...