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The real definition of Mainstream!

kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
Many commentators have been asking the question of what is "mainstream" and when would we be able to known when VR gets close to achieving this.

Well a recent announcement from Samsung kind of gives a good grounding on what that entails:


So that kinda places the situation in perspective. As has been speculated from recent coverage:



In over six months from the launch of the Oculus Quest a estimates 400,000 have been sold - and while the OculusVR internally had hoped for 1m sales before the end of the year that seems to be a target they may miss, even with the popularity generated by the Index - and reflecting on in this news (if these searches can be turned into sales):

 Quest dominated other VR headsets in search interest in the US. Worldwide.....

https://www.roadtovr.com/oculus-quest-dominated-black-friday-search-volume-us-tied-psvr-worldwide/
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Comments

  • Hiro_Protag0nistHiro_Protag0nist Posts: 4,980 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    The real, real definition of mainstream...

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/beer-remains-britains-top-as-85bn-sold-last-year-a4253816.html

    That's actually 8.5bn, in Great Britain.

    Let's just accept it for what it is.  I think it's doing quite well.
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    The real, real definition of mainstream...

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/beer-remains-britains-top-as-85bn-sold-last-year-a4253816.html

    That's actually 8.5bn, in Great Britain.

    Let's just accept it for what it is.  I think it's doing quite well.

    Ah, a good drink and plenty of it. Yeah we know how to go "mainstream"!, us and the Scots.

    But seriously, I think the Oculus Quest has done incredibly well, and keeps on giving with the latest hand tracking announcement. I just wonder if the actual community is able to support "mainstream" - especially in the face of the new  media backlash. 
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  • Hiro_Protag0nistHiro_Protag0nist Posts: 4,980 Valuable Player
    To me, that 0.4m is surprisingly low.  I find it quite hard to believe actually.

    For consumers, i don't think the facebook thing matters - just take a look around you every day, everybody is face down on their phones.

    As for making secondary accounts, makes no difference, they'll have your IP address, your MAC, you'll do it 10 times, you'll accidentally go to another website straight after, it's all linked together etc etc.

    Now, for industry, it matters.
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    To me, that 0.4m is surprisingly low.  I find it quite hard to believe actually.
    ......

    You are right @Hiro_Protag0nist - this is no where near the expectations that the previous management had sold Facebook on being able to achieve at that point, and the current numbers though better are still way off targets - but I think that its an incredible achievement, just a broken business model which new games and Link may address. 

    Your comments about the FB data collection may not matter to you and a number of the VR community - but it is a optic that is not really one that the community wanted or needed beyond the faithful. And already it is a dent in what had been a strong roll out, in the face of a confused message from marketing. 

    We will have to wait and see if this becomes a bigger issue, or if OVR can steer the narrative away from the data harvesting and ecosystem requirements. Remember this was not part of the launch and is being sprung on a market (not a great look). especially as this is a scene that is seeing some of the promises made at the time of the acquisition, seeming to be rolled back on.   
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    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
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  • Shadowmask72Shadowmask72 Posts: 4,132 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    £399 feels real cheap to the VR faithful who spent how much on a CV1 and then how much more on touch controllers. £399 feels cheap when an Index costs £900+. £399 feels cheap when a Rift S costs the same but then needs a PC to run it. However, £399 is expensive when compared to a PSVR if you already own a PS4. £399 is expensive if you compare to an Xbox One or PS4 right now. That £399 price of entry is why the adoption rate is low.  It really needs to be half that price or less if it's to bring in the punters.


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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    £399 feels real cheap to the VR faithful who spent how much on a CV1 and then how much more on touch controllers. £399 feels cheap when an Index costs £900+.......

    The "perception of quality" is a vital aspect of all consumer purchases - and to be frank, the failure of a strong message on what Quest was, to those outside the VR bubble is an issue in not reaching their targets. This has been compounded by the situation we have heard of regarding people mistaking Oculus Go as the same as Quest.

    I have to state amazement on the fantastic job Oculus Texas achieved in getting the Qualcumm Snapdragon 835 (a nearly four year old processor) to achieve the performance they have managed (incredible), but there is ZERO future proofing available. This will make those systems launched next month at CES have a lead on performance, and also those products will have access to the new VR streaming standard (that OVR has shunned).

    These last four months were essential to establish the Quest ecosystem as the one to adopt before the others arrived - the surprise announcement of the user tracking element, revealed now, may not be a clear optic to promote.  
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    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • inovatorinovator Posts: 2,426 Valuable Player
    Mainstream.  hmmmm wait I got it! Used by almost every american and most other nations. Toilet paper is mainstream!!
  • RuneSR2RuneSR2 Posts: 5,614 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    inovator said:
    Mainstream.  hmmmm wait I got it! Used by almost every american and most other nations. Toilet paper is mainstream!!
    That actually is a great definition of mainstream = something we all use. Or:

    "considered normal, and having or using ideasbeliefs, etc. that are accepted by most people"

    With 1% of Steam users having PCVR, VR is quite the opposite of mainstream. One thing is media exposure, another is adoption. Tesla cars and Rolex watches aren't mainstream either, although many may have knowledge of such objects.

    I'm not sure it's considered mainstream to have a Steam account, lol. I think in the high-income parts of this world it's mainstream to use a computer to access the internet though ;)

    If we restrict the mainstream definition to people who like to play pc computer games, maybe it is mainstream to have a Steam account, but I'm not sure (Steam has about 100 mill users, it's not that much). Even with such a restriction, VR would not - at all - be mainstream. As a pc gamer, maybe it would be mainstream to use a Nvidia graphics card and a wireless controller. 2c.
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  • SpuzzumSpuzzum Posts: 843
    3Jane
    edited December 2019
    To me, that 0.4m is surprisingly low.  I find it quite hard to believe actually.

    For consumers, i don't think the facebook thing matters - just take a look around you every day, everybody is face down on their phones.

    As for making secondary accounts, makes no difference, they'll have your IP address, your MAC, you'll do it 10 times, you'll accidentally go to another website straight after, it's all linked together etc etc.

    Now, for industry, it matters.

    I think that number's just due to only being 6 months old at that point, with many people short on cash, or just spent on summer vacation to Disneyland with the kids, as well as the cost of school supplies for September. Wait until a full year has passed, especially after Christmas. Judging by posts on Reddit, they may even double that number this holiday season.
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    Spuzzum said:
    ........
    ...Wait until a full year has passed, especially after Christmas. Judging by posts on Reddit, they may even double that number this holiday season.

    The expectations are high, especially after Link announcement, but there is the issue of the limited factory quota. Its clear that the statement "selling all they can build" is true, but there is some conjecture that there is a manufactured scarcity being employed.

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  • Techy111Techy111 Posts: 6,736 Volunteer Moderator
    And who said that Kev ? Seems to me that would be a christmas cracking idea....not. To manufacture scarcity sounds like nonsense. So they stop people grabbing them for Christmas and have loads of stock after when nobody will want them.
    A PC with lots of gadgets inside and a thing to see in 3D that you put on your head.

  • CongratulationsCongratulations Posts: 124
    Art3mis
    edited December 2019
    I think mainstream means pretty much everyone has one or thinking to get one, it will be few years yet before mainstream. When more companies build more VR or working on there own, then that’s you will know it’s nearly mainstream. They can’t go mainstream by sales as people might buy more than one headset.
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    Techy111 said:
    And who said that Kev ? Seems to me that would be a christmas cracking idea....not. To manufacture scarcity sounds like nonsense. So they stop people grabbing them for Christmas and have loads of stock after when nobody will want them.

    Very much agree, I have never been a fan of manufactured scarcity since Nintendo was caught doing this for marketing benefit. And as you know its the kind of practice that is not going to be promoted. It will be great to see the 1m sales achieved by the end of the year, and this should vindicate the expectations. As stated this Christmas is the perfect storm for Quest, no excuses.
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    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • SpuzzumSpuzzum Posts: 843
    3Jane
    kevinw729 said:
    Spuzzum said:
    ........
    ...Wait until a full year has passed, especially after Christmas. Judging by posts on Reddit, they may even double that number this holiday season.

    The expectations are high, especially after Link announcement, but there is the issue of the limited factory quota. Its clear that the statement "selling all they can build" is true, but there is some conjecture that there is a manufactured scarcity being employed.


    I don't really buy that, not at Christmas time. Maybe during the initial release months, possibly holding back stock for the Christmas sales, but not holding back during Christmas sales. At least that's not the way I'd do business. And as I said in the rest of my comment...people aren't exactly rich these days, and if you have kids, then you probably didn't have an extra $500 before the summer holidays, or after buying school supplies before September. Most would be saving to buy their kids a Quest for Christmas. There's going to be a lot of Super Dads this year, especially the guy who bought a 128GB for each of his kids.
  • So, it turns out Samsung did not sell a million units of Galaxy Folds. It's closer to 400,000.

    Anyway, it's completely pointless to compare VR sales with phone sales, even if it's "prototype phones". Everyone knows what a phone is, so everyone knows what to expect from it, even if it's a brand new one.
    It's not the case for VR, as most people still don't know what it is actually, what it offers exactly. It's an obvious brake to the sales.

    Also, mainstream really doesn't matter. It just has to do well enough to live longer.
    Current VR results imo:
    - Great small apps. Great ports of bigger games.
    - Great VR-specific features. Not enough showcased!!!
    - Too many actors in the industry, the market is totally broken.


    My hopes for VR next gen:

    - Better ratio between visual quality and power needs. No more godrays and less SDE.
    - Full Body Tracking.


    "If you don't mind, do you want me to take you there? Where dreams come true."
  • Shadowmask72Shadowmask72 Posts: 4,132 Valuable Player



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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    Spuzzum said:
    .....
    I don't really buy that, not at Christmas time. Maybe during the initial release months, possibly holding back stock for the Christmas sales, but not holding back during Christmas sales. At least that's not the way I'd do business. And as I said in the rest of my comment...people aren't exactly rich these days, and if you have kids, then you probably didn't have an extra $500 before the summer holidays, or after buying school supplies before September. Most would be saving to buy their kids a Quest for Christmas. There's going to be a lot of Super Dads this year, especially the guy who bought a 128GB for each of his kids.


    I totally agree, I feel the scarcity was for the launch window and it kinda backfired - and would have expected for the Black-Friday and Christmas that we would be in full swing. 

    Interesting discussion going on about the fabrication houses for the Quest, and how one of them is Lenovo - they seem a little unhappy with the Rift-S response and the Link news, and may not be rushing to full-fill quotas - seems odd as they would win both ways?
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    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,529 Volunteer Moderator
    So, it turns out Samsung did not sell a million units of Galaxy Folds. It's closer to 400,000.

    Anyway, it's completely pointless to compare VR sales with phone sales, even if it's "prototype phones". Everyone knows what a phone is, so everyone knows what to expect from it, even if it's a brand new one.
    It's not the case for VR, as most people still don't know what it is actually, what it offers exactly. It's an obvious brake to the sales.

    Also, mainstream really doesn't matter. It just has to do well enough to live longer.
    I’m not sure what the point of the comparison was in the first place—as you say, phones and VR are not comparable markets. But, since this comparison seems to be the basis of this thread, let’s look at it in light of these new numbers. If the Galaxy Fold only sold 0.4 million within the massive smartphone market, that’s a pretty disappointing launch. The Quest, on the other hand, has sold 0.4 million units in the relatively tiny niche market that is VR. That’s a very significant chunk of market share for the Quest to grab in its first 6 months. Sounds to me like the Quest is an overwhelming success, while the Galaxy Fold is a bit of a flop. 

    Now, obviously VR is a long way from the mainstream ubiquity of smart phones, but if Quest can match the sales numbers of the latest fad phone, that’s a pretty good sign for VR overall. 
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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,529 Volunteer Moderator
    Also, Quests are going for over $1000 from resellers these days. With the current Christmas demand, it seems like there’s a good chance Oculus could top 1 million sold by year-end, if they can manufacture enough of them. 
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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    nalex66 said:
    .....
    I’m not sure what the point of the comparison was in the first place—as you say, phones and VR are not comparable markets. But, 
    .....
    Now, obviously VR is a long way from the mainstream ubiquity of smart phones, but if Quest can match the sales numbers of the latest fad phone, that’s a pretty good sign for VR overall. 

    I think you can see the point of the compassion, being seeing how you quickly used it to make a point about the ubiquity of the different markets. Also I still stand by the sales number of the $2,000 priced phone:
    ...Samsung Electronic’s President Young Sohn revealed the company had sold 1 million foldable Galaxy Fold smartphones.....
    Rather than the estimated 400,000 sales (at the point in October) of the Quest. I am not happy with the Superdata numbers, but as this is all we have as the manufacturer will not share sales, even to game developers - we are left with this situation.

    I agree that the mobile phone business is not like VR - one is established mainstream, the other is attempting to establish itself in the consumer conscientiousness. But it allowed a much more focused  thread discussion. 


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  • nalex66nalex66 Posts: 5,529 Volunteer Moderator
    There are several articles out where Samsung has corrected that statement.
    After the original publication of this artlce, Samsung has since clarified to Korea’s Yonhap News Agency that it hasn’t actually sold one million Galaxy Fold devices, despite what executive Young Sohn said on stage earlier this week. Yonhap says a company spokesperson “said Sohn may have confused the figure with the company’s initial sales target for the year, emphasizing that sales of the tech firm’s first foldable handset have not reached 1 million units.” The company did not clarify how many Galaxy Fold devices have been sold, but it earlier said that it targeted 500,000 units for this year.

    So, I stand by my point that Quest, in a market struggling to establish itself in the consumer consciousness, has managed to sell similar numbers as the Galaxy Fold, the latest fad device in a massive well-established mainstream market. As much as you would like to spin that as a failure for Oculus, I don’t know how this can be seen as anything other than a massive success.

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  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    nalex66 said:
    There are several articles out where Samsung has corrected that statement.
    After the original publication of this artlce, Samsung has since clarified to Korea’s Yonhap News Agency that it hasn’t actually sold one million Galaxy Fold devices, despite what executive Young Sohn said on stage earlier this week. Yonhap says a company spokesperson “said Sohn may have confused the figure with the company’s initial sales target for the year, emphasizing that sales of the tech firm’s first foldable handset have not reached 1 million units.” The company did not clarify how many Galaxy Fold devices have been sold, but it earlier said that it targeted 500,000 units for this year.

    So, I stand by my point that Quest, in a market struggling to establish itself in the consumer consciousness, has managed to sell similar numbers as the Galaxy Fold, the latest fad device in a massive well-established mainstream market. As much as you would like to spin that as a failure for Oculus, I don’t know how this can be seen as anything other than a massive success.


    Thanks for sharing that nalex66 - I also ready a article that stated that their target for the end of the year was 1m which they felt they were about to reach. I also know that the Quest has sold much more than 500,000 units at this point, though will be impacted by the restricted shipping conditions. 

    I am not "spinning" that Quest is a failure, I think it will rank as their biggest success to date since the partnership with Samsung on the GearVR - please do not put words in my mouth - I get you dont like my positing, but I am not as negative as you try and imply. What I did say was that a definition of mainstream was possible to see from the situation of this $2,000 "fad" devise in the mainstream market and the sales process of the $399 VR headset.

    It will be great to see how the two success stories of the end of the year for VR - the Quest and HLA will impact the penetration of this technology into the market - that can only be seen as a success for this sector. 
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    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • Nekto2Nekto2 Posts: 297
    Nexus 6
    edited December 2019
    That £399 price of entry is why the adoption rate is low.  It really needs to be half that price or less if it's to bring in the punters.
    I will not agree that is a reason.
    Ok I will agree that price drop will bring up sales. But that will not lead VR to mainstream.

    Reason is: VR is not solving real world tasks yet.
    You could not connect to real world with it :smile:

    Just compare to smartphones. First years a smartphone (no camera, no GPS, no chats) was not a mainstream.
    But now you could use it to communicate, to call 911, to make photo and video etc....
    You can't do this with VR yet.
    You can't play game and switch to chat (skype/messamger/discord/watsup/.....) to quick answer.
    You can't take a party photo with great 10px camera.
    You can't get a video.
    You can't solve any task you could do with a smartphone! You are not posting to this forum from VR even!
    :D

    Smartphone can solve almost any task you could do with a PC and much more. But VR device can't.

    Would be great to be able to do 3D world scan with a Quest. But we need at least 1 full color >10Mpx camera in it.
    Or at least be able to make a simple 2D color photo and share it.
  • AekeroAekero Posts: 129
    Art3mis
    Came on to actually mention that it feels a little more mainstream only today. Quest is sold out everywhere, both models, that's impressive.
    On top of that, I had 3 non-technical friends ask about buying a quest in the last week. (Vr recommendations, really) and coming from non technical friends that's 3 more times than I've -ever- been asked.

    Go quest go! (I don't own a quest but if that's what drags the mainstream into vr, then I'm its number 1 fan!)
  • kojackkojack Posts: 6,482 Volunteer Moderator
    Nekto2 said:
    You are not posting to this forum from VR even!

    I'm posting this from vr.


  • Nekto2Nekto2 Posts: 297
    Nexus 6
    kojack said:
    I'm posting this from vr.
    Cool! :)
  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    edited December 2019
    kojack said:
    Nekto2 said:
    You are not posting to this forum from VR even!

    I'm posting this from vr.



    Wow Kojack that's bad ass - how much time do you spend doing this?
    urdgfqqehbbb.png
    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • kojackkojack Posts: 6,482 Volunteer Moderator
    kevinw729 said:
    kojack said:
    Nekto2 said:
    You are not posting to this forum from VR even!

    I'm posting this from vr.



    Wow Kojack that bad ass - how much time do you spend doing this?
    About 30 sec to be a smart ass. :)
    I even typed it all using a Touch controller.


  • kevinw729kevinw729 Posts: 5,245 Valuable Player
    kojack said:
    ]
    urdgfqqehbbb.png
    ** Second New Book **
    "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959
  • TomCgcmfcTomCgcmfc Posts: 2,275 Valuable Player
    A true Smartass can sit on an ice cream cone and tell you what flavour it is, lol!  Sorry for the regression to a very old joke.

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