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Abrash says, “When the next generation of VR shows up, it will be because we did it.”

Zenbane
MVP
MVP

Bold, but likely true, words coming from Abrash during a recent interview.
No company has invested at anywhere near the level we have. When the next generation of VR shows up, it will be because we did it. I see no other way it’ll happen.

I actually am remarkably impressed with [Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg] and Facebook’s strong commitment to and belief in VR. Everybody sees that AR will replace the phone someday. That seems like a given. But I think that VR will be as important as AR. AR can replace the phone, but VR can replace the personal computer.


"Publicly available data indicates that Facebook currently controls around 50% of the PC VR market and the company currently faces no serious competition in the standalone VR space."
https://uploadvr.com/michael-abrash-the-information-interview-2020/

Coming out of 2019, I very strongly felt that while there were some decent headsets released (e.g. Valve Index, HP Reverb), we have not yet seen a true Next Gen device. Abrash seems to feel the same, and based on the amount of investment Facebook/Oculus is putting forth in to VR compared to all competitors, it would make sense that the next true Next Gen device will come from Facebook.

Unless a new player joins, like Apple?
52 REPLIES 52

RedRizla
Honored Visionary

kojack said:

Next gen would be cool, I just wish Oculus did better with THIS gen and partnered with HP instead of Lenovo to make a Rift Reverb.




Amazing to think there's a VR headset that could be put together now that would be fantastic. That's if Oculus cared to think a bit more instead of just rushing into things and expecting everyone to just swallow what they do. Just Image the HP Reverb with it's design and displays. Add to that Oculus Rift S lenses, camera's, cable and controllers. It's not rocket science to create a highend VR headset today. 

You could have two models. One for the less powerful graphics cards say the 1080's and one for the Geforce 1080 ti to the 2080ti, which the HP Reverb resolution requires. Instead those with higher end graphics cards are now stuck waiting for the next best VR headset that has a higher resolution then the Rift S, and just how long these people will have to wait is anyone's guess. The HP Reverb is only good for sit down experiences due to the ridiculous rigid cable it uses. How anyone thought that cable would be a good idea needs a good talking to.

I agree that Oculus have put a lot into VR and done wonders for it. However, if they are going to just continue to make cheaper headsets, then it's my belief that another company will just use their idea's to make a better more expensive VR headset in the future. I just hope Oculus can make two versions of a VR headset in the future one a highend VR headset and the other a cheaper version of it.

inovator
Consultant
I predict  psvr2 2021. Sony will lose there tremendous lead if they wait until 2022.

Anonymous
Not applicable



Mradr said:


Hmm, I think what Oculus really does have is the environment eco-system to push forward with


Don't forget Sony. Yes, they currently focus the PS5 release this year. But it will be fully compatible to PSVR and I'm pretty sure, they are already working on a PSVR2, which will fit better to the PS5.


Maybe, but it also doesn't support the PC - standalone - or the ability to cover more than one use. Thus - while it might have the software - it doesn't have the flexibility Oculus does provide along with openness to the idea of what software can work with it or the type of devices. As I said - hardware wise - it wouldn't be hard to top what Oculus current has atm - so Sony could provide a better headset and software - but the problem is - they can't do everything though that Oculus can do. Quest alone is already in a "I win" location in terms of supporting even the PC outside of its standalone ability. 

Knowing some what that Quest is selling really well - I wouldn't be surprise to see another version of Quest out this year for GO (you know, without the controllers and maybe one or two less cameras) and Quest 2 by 2021. Mainly my point being is that Oculus does have 3 lines of devices to continue pushing what it does have and continue to push it further more than what even Sony can do now.

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
I plan to get the PS5 (I already got the Nintendo Switch for Christmas). And I sure hope that Sony brings PSVR2. But I have some doubts based on what has been reported so far, so I'm not going to make that an official prediction; just my wishful thinking!

inovator
Consultant

Mradr said:




Mradr said:


Hmm, I think what Oculus really does have is the environment eco-system to push forward with


Don't forget Sony. Yes, they currently focus the PS5 release this year. But it will be fully compatible to PSVR and I'm pretty sure, they are already working on a PSVR2, which will fit better to the PS5.


Maybe, but it also doesn't support the PC - standalone - or the ability to cover more than one use. Thus - while it might have the software - it doesn't have the flexibility Oculus does provide along with openness to the idea of what software can work with it or the type of devices. As I said - hardware wise - it wouldn't be hard to top what Oculus current has atm - so Sony could provide a better headset and software - but the problem is - they can't do everything though that Oculus can do. Quest alone is already in a "I win" location in terms of supporting even the PC outside of its standalone ability. 

Knowing some what that Quest is selling really well - I wouldn't be surprise to see another version of Quest out this year for GO (you know, without the controllers and maybe one or two less cameras) and Quest 2 by 2021. Mainly my point being is that Oculus does have 3 lines of devices to continue pushing what it does have and continue to push it further more than what even Sony can do now.


You say it doesnt support pc standalone. True but based on rumors and patents there is a good chance it will be wireless.  A while ago when that patent was submitted experts said it would work well with no lag.

Anonymous
Not applicable

kojack said:

Next gen would be cool, I just wish Oculus did better with THIS gen and partnered with HP instead of Lenovo to make a Rift Reverb.




They COULD have released the Half Dome prototype as the Rift 2 instead of the Rift S with eye tracking, foveated rendering and varifocal feature. But it wouldn't make a great deal of business sense because you'd be looking at it costing well over a grand to buy. It would end up selling worse than the Valve Index.

They're doing the sensible thing (much to our Enthusiast disappointment!) and are getting more headsets in homes by releasing the VERY affordable Rift S and Quest as well as the Oculus Go (but I think they might not release another Go headset).

Why is it sensible? A few reasons. Firstly because they can break even on Quest sales and make a profit on Rift S sales. Secondly they can bring in NEW people into the Oculus ecosystem instead of getting just us enthusiasts to buy a new headset. These new people are VERY important because when Oculus release the Rift 2 in two years time these non-enthusiasts (mostly mainstream gamers) will most likely upgrade to the Rift 2 when it releases with new technology. And finally so that they can reduce the production cost of that new technology. Releasing the Rift 2 in 2022 instead of 2019 will considerably reduce the production cost, they've already reduced costs as mentioned at OC6 so by the time 2022 comes along they'll be able to sell the thing for £399, or at the most £499.

Everything that Oculus does is for the good of VR, including not releasing a headset too early.

You should also expect a Quest S in a couple of years too, a cheaper headset (£299) with higher resolution, an LCD display(s) and certainly an upgraded Snapdragon. This'll end up being released around the same time that the Rift 2 headset with all its bells and whistles is released, and those very same bells and whistles will appear in the Quest 2 in 2025. Basically when the Rift line is having a Tock the Quest line will have a Tick and vice versa.

inovator
Consultant

snowdog said:


kojack said:

Next gen would be cool, I just wish Oculus did better with THIS gen and partnered with HP instead of Lenovo to make a Rift Reverb.




They COULD have released the Half Dome prototype as the Rift 2 instead of the Rift S with eye tracking, foveated rendering and varifocal feature. But it wouldn't make a great deal of business sense because you'd be looking at it costing well over a grand to buy. It would end up selling worse than the Valve Index.

They're doing the sensible thing (much to our Enthusiast disappointment!) and are getting more headsets in homes by releasing the VERY affordable Rift S and Quest as well as the Oculus Go (but I think they might not release another Go headset).

Why is it sensible? A few reasons. Firstly because they can break even on Quest sales and make a profit on Rift S sales. Secondly they can bring in NEW people into the Oculus ecosystem instead of getting just us enthusiasts to buy a new headset. These new people are VERY important because when Oculus release the Rift 2 in two years time these non-enthusiasts (mostly mainstream gamers) will most likely upgrade to the Rift 2 when it releases with new technology. And finally so that they can reduce the production cost of that new technology. Releasing the Rift 2 in 2022 instead of 2019 will considerably reduce the production cost, they've already reduced costs as mentioned at OC6 so by the time 2022 comes along they'll be able to sell the thing for £399, or at the most £499.

Everything that Oculus does is for the good of VR, including not releasing a headset too early.

You should also expect a Quest S in a couple of years too, a cheaper headset (£299) with higher resolution, an LCD display(s) and certainly an upgraded Snapdragon. This'll end up being released around the same time that the Rift 2 headset with all its bells and whistles is released, and those very same bells and whistles will appear in the Quest 2 in 2025. Basically when the Rift line is having a Tock the Quest line will have a Tick and vice versa.


I couldnt have said it better and totally agree many of your points. Facebook is catering the upcoming mainstream market. Many pissed off members didn't before and even now dont get it. The index is great for a higher end experience for those who  can afford it. The rift s was looked at as a slight upgrade but to me the inside out tracking was major in pushing vr forward to the mainstream. I thought originally oculus was going to drop pcvr and just focus on standalone. I was dead wrong. I didn't see  the quest link coming. Boy was I blindsided. I will surprised if the quest 2 isnt also the rift 2.

Zenbane
MVP
MVP
I can see both sides of the issue here. It's essentially a type of "line in the sand" with the original Oculus enthusiasts on one side, and the mainstream Facebook userbase on the other.

I see overarching problems on both sides:
  • On the Oculus side, there's a problem with the fact that only a small userbase cares about high-end PCVR. It's the same problem Valve and HTC face. It's the same reason that Microsoft focuses more on AR. And the same reason Apple, Google, and Amazon barely dabble in VR. The ROI for a strict high-end PCVR product line is far from ideal.
  • On the Facebook side, sustainability and ROI are solved, but the sacrifice is having to embrace the "evil" that is Social Media, and invest in the lower-end (i.e. lower price) VR HMDs.
I don't see any one side as ultimately right or wrong, good or bad. But when I think of this from a business perspective, I can't help but lean more towards being in favor of what Facebook is doing. Albeit, not without its obvious painpoints (e.g. forcing consumers to have a Facebook account).

What Facebook is doing does make the most "business" sense, for the company itself. And consumers, as always, will end up feeling fragmented. Facebook gave it a fair shot in the beginning. They pushed the Rift CV1 very hard and released a lot of great, often FREE, VR Software. But it wasn't enough The market has spoken (just ask HTC).

Rather that continuing to push a business model that "mass consumers" are avoiding (high-end PCVR), Facebook did the right thing and scaled things down to something that helps hit that "1-billion users" goal. As we march towards that goal, we will then have the proper ecosystem that will allow Facebook to release that ever-so-coveted true Next Gen PCVR headset. Because if I can be blunt for a moment... no other company has done shit to give consumers a true PCVR Next Gen headset. Everything on the market now makes improvements in one area while sacrificing in another; as opposed to building upon, improving, and raising the bar of every single standard within PCVR today.

Patience and sacrifice are what VR enthusiasts will have to endure just a little bit longer.

inovator
Consultant
Zenbane: Patience and sacrifice are what VR enthusiasts will have to endure just a little bit longer. That was my favorite of many of the agreeable things you said. Would I love a bigger fov and all of the other goodies. HELL YA. But that's not good for vr. The only chance of Facebook's dream of getting s billion people in vr is to stay the course.

Anonymous
Not applicable

inovator said:


snowdog said:


kojack said:

Next gen would be cool, I just wish Oculus did better with THIS gen and partnered with HP instead of Lenovo to make a Rift Reverb.




They COULD have released the Half Dome prototype as the Rift 2 instead of the Rift S with eye tracking, foveated rendering and varifocal feature. But it wouldn't make a great deal of business sense because you'd be looking at it costing well over a grand to buy. It would end up selling worse than the Valve Index.

They're doing the sensible thing (much to our Enthusiast disappointment!) and are getting more headsets in homes by releasing the VERY affordable Rift S and Quest as well as the Oculus Go (but I think they might not release another Go headset).

Why is it sensible? A few reasons. Firstly because they can break even on Quest sales and make a profit on Rift S sales. Secondly they can bring in NEW people into the Oculus ecosystem instead of getting just us enthusiasts to buy a new headset. These new people are VERY important because when Oculus release the Rift 2 in two years time these non-enthusiasts (mostly mainstream gamers) will most likely upgrade to the Rift 2 when it releases with new technology. And finally so that they can reduce the production cost of that new technology. Releasing the Rift 2 in 2022 instead of 2019 will considerably reduce the production cost, they've already reduced costs as mentioned at OC6 so by the time 2022 comes along they'll be able to sell the thing for £399, or at the most £499.

Everything that Oculus does is for the good of VR, including not releasing a headset too early.

You should also expect a Quest S in a couple of years too, a cheaper headset (£299) with higher resolution, an LCD display(s) and certainly an upgraded Snapdragon. This'll end up being released around the same time that the Rift 2 headset with all its bells and whistles is released, and those very same bells and whistles will appear in the Quest 2 in 2025. Basically when the Rift line is having a Tock the Quest line will have a Tick and vice versa.


I couldnt have said it better and totally agree many of your points. Facebook is catering the upcoming mainstream market. Many pissed off members didn't before and even now dont get it. The index is great for a higher end experience for those who  can afford it. The rift s was looked at as a slight upgrade but to me the inside out tracking was major in pushing vr forward to the mainstream. I thought originally oculus was going to drop pcvr and just focus on standalone. I was dead wrong. I didn't see  the quest link coming. Boy was I blindsided. I will surprised if the quest 2 isnt also the rift 2.



The Quest 2 won't be the Rift 2 for two reasons. Firstly it's going to be too expensive. You'd have to have the upgraded mobile phone hardware inside as well as the new tech that the Half Dome prototype has in it. Secondly there won't be enough room for everything. The Quest 2 will have the Half Dome technology as well as mobile phone components, a hefty heatsink and fan(s). This is why I've said that when the Rift line has its Tock (the Rift 2) the Quest will have its Tick (the Quest S).

So the timeline will look like this:

2016 Rift 1 (Rift Tock)
2019 Rift S (Rift Tick)
2019 Quest 1 (Quest Tock)
2022 Rift 2 (Rift Tock with Half Dome tech)
2022 Quest 1 S (Quest Tick)
2025 Rift 2 S (Rift Tick)
2025 Quest 2 (Quest Tock with Half Dome tech)

At some point we'll see the two lines merging into one product line but we're quite away from that happening. Oculus COULD have the mobile phone tech in a separate unit worn around the waist or something but that would end up being less portable and be seen by many as being too 'fiddly' when using the thing outside so I don't think Oculus will go there. There'll need to be a significant mobile hardware architectural change or a significant change in cooling tech for Oculus to combine the two product lines into one.