The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

[Zenbane]

There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:

• The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
• The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
• The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions

1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.

[Zenbane]

2018 Predictions from other community members:

Atmos73
Predicts that the Santa Cruz will split in to 2 headsets, one of which will be wired to a PC but instead of constellation tracking they will use the same inside-out tracking as the stand-alone Santa Cruz.
https://forums.oculusvr.com/community/discussion/comment/576608/#Comment_576608


kevinw729
Predicts that the Rift CV2 will simply be re-named Santa Cruz (thus no actual Rift CV2, as PCVR HMD, will be created and released).
https://forums.oculusvr.com/community/discussion/comment/576564/#Comment_576564

[Syrellaris]

Pimax 8K HMD will be a flop, that one is a given. Curious on how they plan to natively support 8K on a HMD when even the strongest nvidia card has issues running 8k reliably on a normal monitor with frame rates above 40 fps. If they plan on making good use of upscaling, then well.. it just ain't 8K. Though. i might have misunderstood there kickstarter.

[nalex66]

I predict that we won’t hear anything concrete about CV2 in 2018, but rather that they’ll keep it quiet until 6 months before release, and the announcement next year will be followed closely by pre-order sales going live.

I also predict that at Facebook Dev Con and Oculus Connect, we will hear about new tech that Oculus is working on, which may or may not make it into CV2, but will keep the hype train rolling and fuel more speculation and predictions. 

[Zenbane]

I like that, nalex.

I am skeptical about my CV2 prediction because I feel that if Facebook/Oculus announces their Rift CV2 plans in the same year that they release Santa Cruz... they could be working against themselves a bit (e.g. lessen the number of Santa Cruz sales because the world just heard that a Rift 2 is coming).

I figure that the only way they would announce a CV2 this year is if they promise it in 2020 (thus removing SC sales threats).

But I think your prediction is a bit more sound overall.

[dburne]

Not announcing anything in 2018 regarding the next version of high end PC-VR ( CV2), may also depend on how much market share in this arena they are willing to give up. 

[Zenbane]

dburne said:

Not announcing anything in 2018 regarding the next version of high end PC-VR ( CV2), may also depend on how much market share in this arena they are willing to give up. 

Very true. It's hard to tell if there is much to give up considering that the only real competition comes from the Vive, and with HTC's financial strain plus the Google buyout in 2017... is that even a real threat anymore? Articles were released last year stating that the Vive is no longer a viable option due to a combination of Oculus content coupled with the reduced Rift prices.

As long as someone like LG or Pimax doesn't pull a surprise move



... then I think Facebook may feel safe holding out CV2 announcements for another year. Hopefully not though!

[DaftnDirect]

Agree with nalex, no CV2 announcement in 2018 but frantic rumours about it towards the end of the year. I think there'll be a couple killer apps that'll be unique and compelling to VR, along with some good quality entertaining games.

also

50% of my posts will be made after the consumption of an unreasonable amount of alcohol

99% of Atmos' posts will be for the purpose of baiting

[kevinw729]

DaftnDirect said:

Agree with nalex, no CV2 announcement in 2018 but frantic rumours about it towards the end of the year. I think there'll be a couple killer apps that'll be unique and compelling to VR, along with some good quality entertaining games.

From what we have seen of the new management structure at OVR they are incredibly focused on achieveing the MarkZ request for one billion users by at least 2026 [edited].
https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-sets-goal-of-a-billion-virtual-reality-users-unveils-new-heads...

Kind of makes it immaterial if a CV2 PC high-end has been announced, as the platform that will be the focus of this "billion" user base will already have had to be in circulation. That platform will be the Standalone - and that will be the focus of most investment. But I am sure there will still be some loving for the PC highend.

A need to stay competitive will be essential in the face of the LG, Pimax and the new hand controllers from HTC. A updated bundle deal, with slicker support from a PC manufacturer would be my bet, possibly a headset update ala-PSVR?  

[dburne]

Hmm I watched his speech during OC4, and don't recall 2020 being the goal for a billion.
I seem to recall it was more like 10 years or something like that.