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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
Level 16
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
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203 REPLIES 203

snowdog
Level 16

MAC_MAN86 said:

This thread is at best childish for trying to influence Awards and sour to the Pimax competition.
My predictions are:
Oculus Wireless 4k
Oculus get sued for something and settle out of court
Drones get extended battery life and come into delivery service
WW3 breaks out but not nuclear and cause world market crash
By 2019 we are left with legacy tech as factories close down and export/import cease



Blimey, I bet you're real fun at parties lol 😮 😄 😄 😄
"This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever

Zenbane
Level 16
"This thread is at best childish for trying to influence Awards and sour to the Pimax competition."

One would have to maintain a childish view of "competition" itself to consider an unreleased product like the Pimax 8K to be competition against... y'know... on-the-shelf products that have actually been released to consumers on the global market.
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JonJonXD
Level 5
I predict that due to Sony overselling expectations will push them even harder to release more VR content for the PS4, which will in turn prompt more software development on the PC side as well. I expect to see a lot more VR titles announced at E3 in 2018 due to this.

Personally, I think Windows Mixed Reality is just going to be one big fat mess, just like most projects Microsoft takes on that isn't Windows and Office in the endpoint sector, so you won't be seeing me invest in that.

I also expect Oculus to reveal their new HMD with full support for the existing sensor system. There is zero reason to replace them. I don't think either HTC or Oculus should even consider replacing sensors in the next few years, as to not alienate those that have already invested. New and improved sensors, sure, but not replacing existing investments.

I think Oculus will continue to heavily invest in gaming content, where as Facebook will continue to heavily invest in R&D for VR experiences, like their new Facebook Spaces beta.

HTC's new wireless headset looks nice and will probably become the defacto high end VR experience due to it being wireless and higher resolution, at least from a hardware perspective.


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Oculus Rift CV1 w/ 3 Sensors + Earphones

snowdog
Level 16
Yup. Contrary to popular belief the Constellation system isn't going anywhere. Same with Lighthouse too, which we've already seen with the Vive Pro.

A great deal of people on Reddit seem convinced that the CV2 is going to have inside-out tracking but there's no way that it's ready for high-end VR, even with extra cameras on the headset.

Those sensors must be as cheap as chips to make these days as are the IR LEDs on the headset and Touch controllers. This is why (along with the hard work of Hans Hartmann!) Oculus have been able to drop the price of the Rift so much since launch. The tracking is just as good as the Lighthouse system and a fraction of the price to manufacture. It isn't going anywhere until the CV3 is released in 2022ish.
"This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever

Mradr
Level 13
Well I could see a hybrid approach to inside-out + outside-in tracking. Where the base station becomes wireless and used to help ground everything, but consider an option as the inside-out tracking will be used as the main tracking for the headset. More like an upgrade just like getting extra cameras are right now for tracking. This way:

1) Setup would be easy as you would just plug the monitor cable+usb instead limiting the amount of work to get it going.
2) As an upgrade - it gives users the option to setup a room if they have the space for it. Other wise, just use the built in tracking instead.

As for the rest of 2018 - unless I am getting a new shiny CV2 x..x it wont effect me much either way. So until that happens, I will just have to wait and collect up on my VR software:) As for my family, I will be getting the SC and OGO for the kids. Working on some software for the OGO for kids, and dropping off a few at the local schools so they can have a bit of fun with it. That's all I have though sadly.

Well I have more - but most of it I already have said and or will just have to wait and see what Oculus does. Till then, just have to wait and keep VRing on.


cybernettr
Level 9
Most people are more interested in short-term predictions than long-term predictions – what will be on the new iPhone, when will the rift CV2 be announced, what will be the hot new games of 2018, etc. I’m more interested in long-term predictions — what will VR, AI, games and gadgets be like in 10 to 15 years?  On the one hand, you don’t have to wait as long for next year’s stuff, but on the other hand, technology will have 10 to 15 years to improve over the long term, so the improvements will be much more fantastic.  I still haven’t gotten most people to share my interest in the long term, however. 
 😕 

Zenbane
Level 16

Predictions Review time,

Most of the Predictions are for Summer and Winter, but we do have some March Predictions from our favorite non-Rift owner, Mr. @Atmos73:

Second I get some shiney new Knuckle controllers around March 2018.
Third, HTC release an updated Vive package with BS 2.0 and Knuckles around March 2018 - for $500.
Forth, Budget Cuts or one of Valves games gets released in March 2018 with full Knuckle support.


It's March 8th and none of these are actually happening. Knuckle controllers are still as Mythological as the Unicorn. Not much time left for these predictions to come true.



Are you a fan of the Myst games? Check out my Mod at http://www.mystrock.com/
Catch me on Twitter: twitter.com/zenbane

Zenbane
Level 16


Most people are more interested in short-term predictions than long-term predictions – what will be on the new iPhone, when will the rift CV2 be announced, what will be the hot new games of 2018, etc. I’m more interested in long-term predictions — what will VR, AI, games and gadgets be like in 10 to 15 years?  On the one hand, you don’t have to wait as long for next year’s stuff, but on the other hand, technology will have 10 to 15 years to improve over the long term, so the improvements will be much more fantastic.  I still haven’t gotten most people to share my interest in the long term, however. 
 😕 



Yeah sorry, this is only a 2018 predictions thread, not a 2028 thread lol

It's too hard to predict that far off, and many of us won't be around to follow up on the "who was right" vs "who was wrong" with all these predictions.

More importantly, short-term accomplishments are what dictate long-term innovations. One of the driving forces behind this thread is the fact that many of us can't even agree on the short-term; so trying to analyze the long-term seems futile.

I do like your ideas about the future though!
Are you a fan of the Myst games? Check out my Mod at http://www.mystrock.com/
Catch me on Twitter: twitter.com/zenbane

LZoltowski
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator
and the Design Awards go to HTC Vive Knuckles !!! ....

*read wrong envelope" -- Thanks PWC

NOT HTC!

Those things are hideous.





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Be kind to one another 🙂

Zenbane
Level 16
Indeed LZ, and just looking at those images... we can all see why they still have no release date AND why HTC is launching Vive Pro without them.

The Knuckles are a huge flop and will definitely be too little too late when and "if" they ever make it to the consumer market.
Are you a fan of the Myst games? Check out my Mod at http://www.mystrock.com/
Catch me on Twitter: twitter.com/zenbane