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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
Level 16
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

bigmike20vt
Level 14

Atmos73 said:

Ok I’ve changed the value to pounds only and put you down as £318. Smashin


(why am i getting involved??? no idea...) but dont forget you need to add 20% vat on that to be even close to fair. those guys dont have tax added on their stuff at source... Even then it is a little unfair as those outside of America may not realise how badly we in blighty get ripped off, and it will only get worse after brexit finally happens.  generally £1 = $1 which you know....
TLDR if you are genuinely interested in a battle of wits and predictions....... take his $ price :wink:

PS... Can I play? 

Santa Cruz
 I will go for $399 + local taxes and £400 inc VAT
Date.... ... January 2019 - I think they will aim for xmas release and will unfortunately miss it!.

Rift CV2 I will go for A teaser announcement in Q3 2018 and a November 2019 launch
Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR 🙂

bigmike20vt
Level 14

Atmos73 said:

But the £ normally gets converted automatically to the $ 1:1 so £500 would be $500.




£500 inc vat would not be an outrageous guess but i am not speaking for ZB.  (i would say the normal $1-£1 works  fairly well but only when you factor in that is normally excluding tax in the US and including VAT in the uk, so it is not *quite* as bad as 1:1)

anyway i dunno why the frak i am arguing between you 2 its nowt to do with me. i just kicked in a few guesses just for fun.... either way they wont be as far off as your very 1st knuckles launch prediction (April 2017 wasn’t it) or your prediction at the vive pro cost 😉  (i am joking)
Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR 🙂

Morgrum
Level 11
My 2018 VR prediction is that both Zen and Atmos will be banned numerous times this year while argueing with each other.
WAAAGH!

nalex66
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator
Yeah, I'm guessing that it would be around $400 to $500 (USD). $500 would certainly be a reasonable price, but given how aggressively they've priced Go, I wouldn't be surprised if they bring Santa Cruz to market at $400.

I don't know how Oculus prices are working out in pounds these days (is it $1 = £1?), but if you're going to convert our predictions, please do it in line with current pricing rates. Or better yet, why don't we keep our predictions in USD since that's how Oculus gear is primarily priced?


nrosko
Level 8
I think maybe they dropped  the ball with Oculus Go as windows mixed reality units are around similar price point at this moment. why buy a £200 headset with no tracking when you can pay a bit more for a higher res headset with tracking?

snowdog
Level 16
Santa Cruz will be $399/£399 and released in November this year. Announced at F8 during the keynote and the Rift will get a price cut to $299/$349/£299/£349. My first guess is 299 notes but it all depends on whether they can break even at that price.

Oculus will also be the first of the two reaching the 1m sales mark too, some time in the Summer after the price cut.

We'll also have a teaser of the CV2 at F8, 4K native with foveated rendering.
"This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever

bigmike20vt
Level 14

nrosko said:

I think maybe they dropped  the ball with Oculus Go as windows mixed reality units are around similar price point at this moment. why buy a £200 headset with no tracking when you can pay a bit more for a higher res headset with tracking?


Because you don't need a high end pc to run them. It may not seem it on here but we are a minority of pc owners with vr capable pc
Fiat Coupe, gone. 350Z gone. Dirty nappies, no sleep & practical transport incoming. Thank goodness for VR 🙂

Zenbane
Level 16
@nrosko PC dependency vs non-PC dependency.

There are people who steer clear of Microsoft products like the plague. Those people won't have a Rift or Vive or WMR because they are all Microsoft dependent. GO is a good choice for them if they own nothing else. And the number of people in the world who still do not own any  Immersive virtual reality hmds is in the Billions. 

It is important to understand the sport first before predicting ball drops.

Zenbane
Level 16


Let's join this game. Predictions for 2018!
1. Oculus Go is a success on casual market. (not a massive one but it sells enough to make it profitable)
2. VivePro does barely ok. Perhaps price point too high or not that much of a difference with current tech to justify an upgrade.
3. We get release date and price point for Santa Cruz at OC5. Comes Q4 2019 at $399. But here's the catch, this is actually CV2. Standalone stays on Go, CV2 connects wirelessly to a PC for best possible VR experience. Updated screens, fov, ergonomics, tracking and controllers. Basically an upgrade on all fronts. Still no foveated rendering or eye tracking though.
4. Skyrim VR, Doom VFR and Fallout 4 VR get official Oculus compatibility
5. PSVR continues dominating the VR market. It gets a price drop and maybe updated dedicated controllers.
6. Biggest upgrades we all get come from the Oculus Home experience as it continues to evolve and integrate social aspects.



Well done, neocaleric. While Doom and Fallout did not launch with official Touch support, they were "compatible" with the Rift. Skyrim launched with full compatibility.

But your 6th prediction is spot on coming out of the latest Oculus round of news. Major upgrades to home were announced last month, including the social upgrades coming by summer.

DaftnDirect
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator
mmm I'm optimistic now that Skyrim was given proper Rift support, Bethesda will see sense and patch Fallout 4, giving the same Rifty goodness.

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