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The VR Predictions Thread of 2018

Zenbane
Level 16
There have been a plethora of predictions tossed around from 2016 thru 2017. Many of those predictions fall short, but we rarely get to take that in, which is a bit of a loss. The ratio is something like: 98% effort put towards making multiple predictions, 2% effort put towards fact-checking to see which predictions turned out true or false.

This thread will attempt to resolve that for all the 2018 predictions that are enroute thanks to:
  • The current ambiguity surrounding Facebook's Rift CV2 plans
  • The general implications of Facebook's stand-alone low-end headset, Oculus GO
  • The bigger implications of Facebooks stand-alone mid-range headset, Santa Cruz

Feel free to post your predictions here. If you catch someone else making a prediction, drop it here as well on their behalf.

I'll begin with predictions for 2018 of my own:

Zenbane's Predictions
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit for practical use.
203 REPLIES 203

Zenbane
Level 16
Update time!

First off, I was  wrong on this prediction:
"The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020."

The Rift CV2 has not been officially announced (although the Rift has been confirmed as the Gold Standard in the Oculus Trifecta:

hl6pv732cnvc.jpg


I still hold my prediction that a Rift CV2 will be slated for a 2020 release, but confirmation still has not taken place.

These 2 predictions turned out wrong as well from other posters:

Santa Cruz did not split into 2 headsets, and the Santa Cruz did not become the Rift CV2.

I'll read through the thread for any other predictions that can be clarified coming out of OC5.

Zenbane
Level 16
A few more prediction updates, listing who was right/wrong about what!

@nalex66 was right:
I predict that we won’t hear anything concrete about CV2 in 2018, but rather that they’ll keep it quiet until 6 months before release, and the announcement next year will be followed closely by pre-order sales going live.

I also predict that at Facebook Dev Con and Oculus Connect, we will hear about new tech that Oculus is working on, which may or may not make it into CV2, but will keep the hype train rolling and fuel more speculation and predictions. 


@snowdog was wrong:
3) Oculus will announce the CV2 during OC5 and it'll be released some time next year.
4) The Pimax will be delayed until March-June and won't flop completely despite being a bit crap.
9) The Knuckles controllers will be released in the Summer and will be $149 for the pair.

@snowdog was right:
5) Oculus will continue to release AAA quality games this year, we'll hear about them during Facebook's F8 thingy and Facebook's event around E3.

@nrosko was wrong:
I predict Oculus Go will not do as well as hoped.

@nrosko was right:
New Vive will come out & do OK but not great, uptake of windows VR will also continue to be slow.

@stargate88 was wrong:
2) Pre order for Santa Cruz will be announced at OC5.

@startgate88 was right:
3) Demo of technology Oculus is working on for CV2 will be demo at OC5 (foveated rendering / multifocal) . But still no date announced.

@shadowfrogger was right:
Santa Cruz will make a appearance at Oculus connect but not be released or even get a release date.

@shadowfrogger was half-right:
The Rift Cv 2 will be separate from Santa Cruz, It will be announced first half of 2019 and be out before the end of 2019.


@neocaleric was right:
1. Oculus Go is a success on casual market. (not a massive one but it sells enough to make it profitable)
2. VivePro does barely ok. Perhaps price point too high or not that much of a difference with current tech to justify an upgrade.

@neocaleric was Super wrong:
We get release date and price point for Santa Cruz at OC5. Comes Q4 2019 at $399. But here's the catch, this is actually CV2. Standalone stays on Go, CV2 connects wirelessly to a PC for best possible VR experience.


@FlakMagnet was wrong:
CV2 will be announced at OC5 and will be 4K per eye with built-in upscaling so scenes can still be rendered in lower resolution on older hardware.

DaftnDirect
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator


Agree with nalex, no CV2 announcement in 2018 but frantic rumours about it towards the end of the year. I think there'll be a couple killer apps that'll be unique and compelling to VR, along with some good quality entertaining games.


also

50% of my posts will be made after the consumption of an unreasonable amount of alcohol

99% of ***@usernamedeleted*** posts will be for the purpose of baiting




2 of these predictions were spot on.

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Zenbane
Level 16

stargate88
Level 4


I predict:
1) Oculus Go will be the gadget to get for xmas this year.
2) Pre order for Santa Cruz will be announced at OC5.
3) Demo of technology Oculus is working on for CV2 will be demo at OC5 (foveated rendering / multifocal) . But still no date announced.
4) VR 180 will become beter and more popular for VR than 360 videos. Google VR 180 will raise the bar of the quality/price ratio of VR 180 cameras. John Carmack helping in the video pipeline. 
5) HTC will announce an improved vive beginning of January. The 8th to be more precise 😉



Ok, so no follow up in this thread after all predictions to see who was right.
I'll do mine:
1) Oculus Go is pretty popular but was not the most popular gadget for xmas
2) No, will need to wait for the Oculus Quest
3) Demo was done at F8 and indeed still no date announced.
4) VR 180 camera are way cheaper this year. YouTube now has support for VR180. John Carmack did some work on the video pipeline (dynamic 5k encoding)
5) Nailed it!

For 2019:
1) Release of Oculus Quest at F8. It will have about the same success as the Oculus Go.
2) Technical demo technologies that will probably be in the next Oculus Rift at OC6 but still no release date announced
3) Release of a "light" Rift with software IPD adjustment and better screen for 50$ less than the current price before Christmas.
4) After the release of Quest we'll have through the year a lot of news about games ported to Oculus Quest
5) AR still won't be a success

kevinw729
Level 16

stargate88 said:
.....
For 2019:
1) Release of Oculus Quest at F8. It will have about the same success as the Oculus Go.
2) Technical demo technologies that will probably be in the next Oculus Rift at OC6 but still no release date announced
3) Release of a "light" Rift with software IPD adjustment and better screen for 50$ less than the current price before Christmas.
4) After the release of Quest we'll have through the year a lot of news about games ported to Oculus Quest
5) AR still won't be a success



Yeah, stargate88, I think you nailed that well, I would agree with all those - even with the breaking news, I think that could be a Rift-Lite. I also agree that we can expect a world of pain listening to "what is being ported to Quest...and will it be as good as the Rift version!"!! 

My only addition would be:

6) Oculus VR releases sales numbers of Oculus Go at Connect 6

...a man can dream.  B)
https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959

Zenbane
Level 16
I would love to see if the Location Based Entertainment industry ever releases sales numbers. So far those numbers are null and void. In fact, if anyone tries to Search for this Industry and its Net Worth, all you get are "projections" which is on par with: Wishful Thinking.

Here's a Forbe's article that gets it right:

I think of location-based entertainment (LBE) for VR as an analogous step to the cyber cafes of the early days of PC gaming and PCs in general. Eventually, many of those centers ended up dying off, but some survive today in places where people can’t afford to buy or build their own PCs.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/moorinsights/2019/01/04/location-based-vr-the-next-phase-of-immersive-e...

Oculus may never release sales numbers, but we don't need those numbers to realize that HomeVR is where the true innovation (and money) resides.

This thread reminds me that I need to start a new 2019 predictions thread! I will include my predictions for LBE as well.

Zenbane
Level 16
Quick update on my 2018 Predictions:
  1. Oculus GO will sell over 2 million units by the end of 2018.
  2. Santa Cruz will win a “VR Unit of the Year” Award for 2018.
  3. The Rift CV2 will be announced at the 2018 Facebook Developer Conference with a predicted released date of 2020.
  4. The
    Pimax 8K HMD from Kickstarter will turn out to be a flop. Either it
    won’t ship to the general public in 2018 or it will ship but prove so
    faulty and defective that the industry will determine the product unfit
    for practical use.

Prediction 1 is probably a FAILED prediction. While GO estimates are reasonably over 1 million, I doubt that they hit over 2 million by the end of 2018. My best guess is that GO was at least 500,000 units short of the 2 million mark.

Prediction 2 presumed that Oculus Quest would be released in 2018, but it was not! So that prediction FAILED. Any awards it may receive will fan in to 2019.

Prediction 3 was definitely a FAIL. The best thing we have today are "rumors" of the Rift-S.

Prediction 4 is debatable, but Pimax definitely failed to produce the promised 8K headset. Most people went with the 5K downgrade, and multiple reports of "dead pixels" instantly surfaced. So I'm referring to this as a GOOD prediction.

Time to move on to 2019 !!

nalex66
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator

nalex66 said:

I predict that we won’t hear anything concrete about CV2 in 2018, but rather that they’ll keep it quiet until 6 months before release, and the announcement next year will be followed closely by pre-order sales going live.

I also predict that at Facebook Dev Con and Oculus Connect, we will hear about new tech that Oculus is working on, which may or may not make it into CV2, but will keep the hype train rolling and fuel more speculation and predictions. 


Looking back at my modest list: No concrete news about CV2... check. I’m now expecting the Rift S announcement and preorder later this year rather than CV2. 

New tech shown... check. Half Dome got us all excited for the future last May when they revealed it at F8. Too bad CV2 is further off than we all hoped. 

For 2019, I predict:
  1. Quest will sell like hotcakes and be a big success. 
  2. People will moan about Oculus abandoning PCVR. 
  3. Rift S will be announced later in the year with higher res, better lenses, and Insight tracking at a very affordable price point ($300?). 
  4. People will moan about Oculus abandoning Constellation tracking. 
  5. Rift S will go on sale before year-end and will sell like hotcakes.
  6. People will moan about the lack of a major leap forward with new tech. 
  7. FB/Oculus will yet again show off some fancy new tech at their conferences. 
  8. People will moan about no solid info or release date for CV2. 

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kevinw729
Level 16

nalex66 said:
.....
For 2019, I predict:
  1. Quest will sell like hotcakes and be a big success. 
  2. People will moan about Oculus abandoning PCVR. 
  3. Rift S will be announced later in the year with higher res, better lenses, and Insight tracking at a very affordable price point ($300?). 
  4. People will moan about Oculus abandoning Constellation tracking. 
  5. Rift S will go on sale before year-end and will sell like hotcakes.
  6. People will moan about the lack of a major leap forward with new tech. 
  7. FB/Oculus will yet again show off some fancy new tech at their conferences. 
  8. People will moan about no solid info or release date for CV2. 




I think numbers 2,4,6 and 8 and inevitable. Along with people moaning about that, you will also have to deal with the comparisons being drawn between what is "Rift-Like experience" and how good a port of a Rift to Quest game actually is.

I am more about the audience reaction, than the self appointed postings of the entitled few. And from the reaction to Go, it will be interesting to see how Quest is received outside of the community.

https://vrawards.aixr.org/ "The Out-of-Home Immersive Entertainment Frontier: Expanding Interactive Boundaries in Leisure Facilities" https://www.amazon.co.uk/Out-Home-Immersive-Entertainment-Frontier/dp/1472426959