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The VR Predictions Thread of 2020

Zenbane
Level 16
In keeping with tradition, lets see who can get the most accurate predictions for the new year.


How will the VR landscape and ecosystem look by the end of the year 2020?

I'll start with my predictions,
  • Half-Life Alyx will be received as a true AAA VR Experience, and rival Lone Echo as the best overall VR title.
  • Facebook will tease (but not release) an upgrade to Rift-S.
  • Quest will remain in its current version, with no hardware upgrades.
  • Facebook will continue to strengthen hand-tracking to the point that it begins to rival controller-based tracking.
  • Artificial Intelligence will begin to play a stronger role in software experiences in VR, especially within the Facebook/Oculus platform.
  • Microsoft will continue to focus more on AR than VR.
  • Amazon will continue to remain relatively passive with VR.
  • Apple will continue to leak VR info, but never release anything.
  • WebVR will make a strong comeback.
  • With Adobe's purchase of Medium will we see a bigger surge in "VR art."

Anyone else? ๐Ÿ™‚
9 REPLIES 9

Techy111
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator
AR will overtake VR until pushed aside by AR on its comeback but VR will make in roads to oust AR making VR the big winner of 2020 ๐Ÿ˜‰
A PC with lots of gadgets inside and a thing to see in 3D that you put on your head.

snowdog
Level 16
I've just done a copy pasta from my ones on the AV forums:

1) Facebook Horizons will release and be awesome

2) Half Life: Alyx will sell over 1m units within 6 months

3) Facebook will announce a permanent price cut for the Quest at F8, $349, and a permanent price cut for the Rift, also $349

4) Valve will announce Left 4 Dead VR due for release in October or November

5) Nakamura's Fall demo will be released to the Oculus Store. Maybe.

6) Oculus will release the Quest hand tracking for the Rift S at the end of the year

7) HTC will do something stupid. Again.

๐Ÿ˜Ž Nvidia will release RTX 21xx GPUs in the Summer, the 2180 being $749 and about the same power as the 2080Ti
"This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever

Zenbane
Level 16
HL Alyx has me curious now,

Will its release (assuming it's as good as we all hope) greatly impact VR HMD sales? Will we see a sudden spike in Index sales? Rift Sales? Quest Sales?

I'm curious as to how effective HL Alyx will be at bringing in all those PC gamers who have remained on the fence with VR.

I don't have a strong enough opinion here to make a prediction in either direction.

snowdog
Level 16
I think we'll see an increase in ALL headset sales for a few months, but not as big an increase as some are thinking for the Valve Index unless they cut the price. We'll probably see the biggest sales increases coming from the WVR devices because they're at an impulse buy price point. If the Quest and/or Rift S were cut to ยฃ299 they'll be in impulse buy territory too, but at less than $200 in some cases we'll see WVR headsets flying off shelves once the game is released I think.

But the game that's REALLY going to drive Rift S and Quest sales is going to be Nakamura's Fall. Cos, you know, it's gonna be AWESOME!!!

Working on designing the Start Menu at the moment, then comes the Options Menu followed by the Controls, Video and Audio parts of that followed by the Pause Menu.

Got the control of the character sorted out yesterday, and am waiting for Allegorithmic to get their arses in gear and update the Substance Plugin before I can start building the models for the rooms and then procedurally generate the levels.

With a bit of luck I might end up having a free demo available in the Oculus Store later on this year. I'll also need the help of some of you guys with testing too at some point but not got anything remotely playable at the moment. Maybe in a few months all going well.

I've also got to get off my arse and sort my website out as well at some point.
"This you have to understand. There's only one way to hurt a man who's lost everything. Give him back something broken."

Thomas Covenant, Unbeliever

Zenbane
Level 16
With a bit of luck I might end up having a free demo available in the Oculus Store later on this year.



kojack
Volunteer Moderator
Volunteer Moderator
My predictions:
- Facebook will do yet another thing to piss off part of the Oculus community.
- The Tilt Five will come out and I'll have fun developing for it. Ok, that's AR, not VR, but it's the only unreleased headset that interests me right now.

Author: Oculus Monitor,  Auto Oculus Touch,  Forum Dark Mode, Phantom Touch Remover,  X-Plane Fixer
Hardware: Threadripper 1950x, MSI Gaming Trio 2080TI, Asrock X399 Taich
Headsets: Wrap 1200VR, DK1, DK2, CV1, Rift-S, GearVR, Go, Quest, Quest 2, Reverb G2

JeremyC85
Level 7

Zenbane said:

HL Alyx has me curious now,

Will its release (assuming it's as good as we all hope) greatly impact VR HMD sales? Will we see a sudden spike in Index sales? Rift Sales? Quest Sales?

I'm curious as to how effective HL Alyx will be at bringing in all those PC gamers who have remained on the fence with VR.

I don't have a strong enough opinion here to make a prediction in either direction.


I think this is already happening. Seems that the rift-s is sold out almost everywhere right now. 

pjenness
Level 8
I predict:
  1. Developers and Indies will see the success of Social Media publishing and advertising, and we'll get a lot more "JackSeptic Eye", "Pewds", Node  other top gamer channels have more VR content. Those games that become "Best VR experiences will get significant sales.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2E30vb3bmMc
  2. If half-life happens, and #1 happens for it...then a surge (albeit maybe smallish) of headset purchases happen..which would trickle into other games as people finish with half-life
  3. More multimedia on VR (interactive Movies/Documentaries)....these will trickle into Exhibition style VR...which is sorely missing a Commercial headset (for durability and clean-ability for en-masse daily usage (think museums,fun-parks etc)
  4. Some lightweight alternative to quest..maybe its not necessarily more powerful..but more comfortable, to be used in public and outdoors. Probably with introduction of Camera and AR features to start the XR crossover device.  Especially for things like virtual tours, commercial usage etc where even the quest is a bit clunky and uncomfortable


-P




Drift VFX Visual, Virtual , Vertical Want 970GTX on Macbook for good FPS? https://forums.oculus.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=17349

TomCgcmfc
Level 15
I predict that in early 2020 the Vive Cosmos tracking will finally equal, maybe even better the Rift S and Quest tracking.  Of course it may require the use of the new (est. 2020 QTR 1) SteamVR faceplate module w/base stations though, lol!  This will be followed by other Cosmos developments like eye-tracking, hand-tracking, and a 5G module for mobile VR.  Of course the Cosmos will be a shoe-in for the 2020 headset of the year award and will revive Vive!  

Please remember where you read this first as Cosmos development unfolds, lol!
9 9900k, rtx3090, 32 Gb ram, 1tb ssd, 4tb hdd. xi hero wifi mb, Corsair 1000w. Rift cv1, Quest 1, Vive Pro.